Bering Sea storm: Has global warming ...

Bering Sea storm: Has global warming made the coast more vulnerable?

There are 4 comments on the Christian Science Monitor story from Nov 9, 2011, titled Bering Sea storm: Has global warming made the coast more vulnerable?. In it, Christian Science Monitor reports that:

Bering Sea storm: This image provided by the NOAA-19 satellite's AVHRR sensor, shows the storm bearing down on Alaska in this infrared imagery on Wednesday at 5 a.m. ET.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at Christian Science Monitor.

LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#1 Nov 11, 2011
Why do they keep asking how much AGW has contributed to every problem out there. Sure, the arctic has warmed. Sure the consequent open water makes erosion drastically worse. But..

We DO NOT KNOW, though IT IS LIKELY. The amount is somewhere between 0% and 100%. Take your pick.

The real question is what we CAN and SHOULD do about AGW as a 'complicating factor' and a dangerous unknown.
SpaceBlues

Rosharon, TX

#2 Nov 11, 2011
A case in point... How statistically significant were Houstonís six ridiculously hot months this year?

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/how-stat...
LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#3 Nov 14, 2011
SpaceBlues wrote:
A case in point... How statistically significant were Houstonís six ridiculously hot months this year?
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/11/how-stat...
An excellent reference. Very erudite and rigorous.

It is true. The odds are somewhat high but they ARE odds. The event could be 'natural'.

The problem is that if the odds are one in three hundred, some people will take this as proving 'it must be' rather than that 'it could be' or 'is very likely to be'.

And denialists will take a one in three hundred odds as saying that it 'must be natural'. Actually what is likely is that the odds have shifted from the climate of the past and thus the odds are smaller than expected. i.e. the basis of the analysis ASSUMES no change in climate. The only way to be sure is to have enough data to show that the odds HAVE shifted and that takes a LOT of data, not one event of any description.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#4 Nov 14, 2011
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
<quoted text>
An excellent reference. Very erudite and rigorous.
It is true. The odds are somewhat high but they ARE odds. The event could be 'natural'.
The problem is that if the odds are one in three hundred, some people will take this as proving 'it must be' rather than that 'it could be' or 'is very likely to be'.
And denialists will take a one in three hundred odds as saying that it 'must be natural'. Actually what is likely is that the odds have shifted from the climate of the past and thus the odds are smaller than expected. i.e. the basis of the analysis ASSUMES no change in climate. The only way to be sure is to have enough data to show that the odds HAVE shifted and that takes a LOT of data, not one event of any description.
Yes, I agree. And the assumption of no change in climate makes this exercise academic because we know that extreme events cause change in climate.

Then there are human problems related to extreme events whether too hot or too dry. Look at this:

http://hutchnews.com/Todaystop/BC-MO--Nitrate...

"Ranchers are being urged to watch what they feed their cattle this fall and winter because some drought-stressed plants that were harvested for animal feed or whose stalks remain in fields contain dangerous levels of nitrates.

University extension officials in Kansas and Missouri said high nitrate levels can kill adult cattle or cause pregnant cows to miscarry. Animals that eat the nitrate-laden plants stumble and appear to be suffocating because nitrate poisoning inhibits the ability of blood to transport oxygen."

Also: Dr. Mike Bloss, a veterinarian in Aurora, recalled getting a frantic call from a farmer who grazed 30 cows and their calves in a barn lot filled with Johnsongrass. In less than an hour, the animals were staggering. Two cows died; three other sickened cows and a 400-pound calf survived.

"It can tie up the red blood cells really quickly," Bloss said.

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