it'll take chipping away i suspect. but like the miners, someday we'll strike gold or diamonds.<quoted text>
well perhaps I am not as hopeful int he near term as you are.
I donít expect all of DOMA to fall, only section 3
If all of DOMA goes down the tubes you will be exactly right regardless of the results of Prop 8, it would be the death knell of every state constitution banning same sex marriage, it would still take time.. but it would happen swiftly.
What I expect with DOMA is section 3 to be struck... taking away the federal definition, but leaving definitions and recognitions to individual states. Not the swift outcome, but progress.
On Prop 8, I honestly donít know which way it will go, there are 4 outcomes I can think of
1 Uphold the case against Prop 8 ( and Prop 8 goes down )
2 Decide those defending Prop 8 do not have standing ( and prop 8 goes down )
3 Donít rule ( like they did with Gore vs Bush ) and toss it back to the state, that has already ruled ( and prop 8 goes down )
4 Uphold Prop 8, not likely, however it will be quickly resolved in the next election cycle with another ballot measure that will easily pass.
1, 2 and 3 are equally likely in my opinion, I doubt we will see 4
But unless they overturn all of DOMA, and go for a broad ruling on Prop 8 I seriously doubt it will affect other states much in the short term.
In the long term.. oh yeah.. it is pushing the door that is already open wider and wider and either way it is only a matter of time before all states will recognize same sex marriage.
You are very right that nowÖ it is only a matter of time, like geology, time and pressure
honestly, i never thought 20 yrs ago we'd have come this far.
i'm just thinking of all those state laws & how they compare to Prop 8.....maybe i'm being a bit hopeful, and feeling a bit energized by the past couple of years of change, but that one by one, the state's laws will be declared unconstitutional by a federal judge on some level.
if part 3 is struck down, then that would mean federal recognition insofar as taxation, etc. which would be a giant step forward for same sex marriage. the case that was heard - that of the widow who's sueing for the tax money she'd paid on the inheretance of property both she and her partner paid for (some are calling her the rosa parks of this movement) despite being legally married in NY.
my question then is this....and i hope i can state it clearly. why wouldn't sect 3 falling and fed recognition of same sex marriages (as in for IRS purposes) affect all 50 states? i would think that it would - if the fed recognizes those contracts then the fed would expect all states to honor all marriage contracts from other states, just like any other contract. i suppose the work around would be for someone in texas (like me) go to one of the states that do offer same sex marriage & get married there in order to get fed recognition of the marriage for tax purposes. i suppose i'll have to wait and watch - and perhaps consult our attorney again (and make him richer, again) & see what he advises us to do to save on taxes in the long run in this regards.