The inconvenient 17-year pause in global warming

Sep 13, 2013 Full story: South China Morning Post 123

Howard Winn has been with the South China Morning Post for two and half years after previous stints as business editor and deputy editor of The Standard, and business editor of Asia Times.

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LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#1 Sep 13, 2013
One more time (denial ditto machine still going strong) there is NO pause in GLOBAL WARMING. There is a pause in the temperature rise of the AIR temps. A paltry 2% of the 'surface' which is subject to a lot of variance from heat transfer changes such as ENSO exposing a lot of cold deeper water to the surface where it affects the amount of heat transferred to the air.

I know that some people think that there is a large 'debate' about AGW science and some skepticism but mostly it is faulty logic and misrepresentation like this, being repeated over and over by clueless doofusses (news, blogs, and other morons).

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#2 Sep 13, 2013
The "17 year" claim comes from Chris Monckton, being very selective about which temperature indexes he looks at.
In an earlier posting I demonstrated that for more than 17 years (now 17 years 7 months) the HadCRUt4 monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset had shown no global warming distinguishable from the combined 2 σ measurement, coverage, and bias uncertainties published together with the data themselves.

However, there were those who said that, nevertheless, the HadCRUt4 data appeared to show some warming (albeit less than 1 Cş/century).
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/11/rss-glo...

Here's the plot:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/f...

Right, so that's the "no significant warming" thing again, not no warming.
Well, the first of the five principal datasets to show no warming at all for 17 years is likely to be the RSS dataset of Santer’s own colleagues.
Don't know if that data has gone into Woodfortrees.org yet, but today RSS shows a slight rise:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:199...

Monckton is digging his own grave, of course: the period begins with a super El Nino in 1998 and ends with two La Ninas in 2008 and 2012.

The next El Nino year will be interesting.

Pat Michaels warned against this sort of argument back in 2008:
Make an argument that you can get killed on and you will kill us all.

If you lose credibility on this issue, then you lose the issue.

What happened, and this is why this argument is so very, very dangerous, is that solar activity and the La Nina we're in now have conspired to add up to produce very, very little temperature change in the last couple of years. What's going to happen is, one of these years, that's going to turn around. If you make that argument now, you're going to have a very, very difficult time defending the future.

Global warming is real and the second warming of the 20th century- people have something to do with it. Get over it.


But Monckton isn't listening, neither is the denial blogosphere.

Their credibility is strained to breaking point by the cherry picking of indexes and years. The next El Nino year will be interesting indeed.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

#3 Sep 14, 2013
From the above post

"If you lose credibility on this issue, then you lose the issue.

What happened, and this is why this argument is so very, very dangerous, is that solar activity and the La Nina we're in now have conspired to add up to produce very, very little temperature change in the last couple of years. What's going to happen is, one of these years, that's going to turn around. If you make that argument now, you're going to have a very, very difficult time defending the future."

And the exact opposite was in place during the global warming.

"What happened, and this is why this argument is so very, very dangerous, is that solar activity and the La Nina we're in now have conspired to add up to produce very, very little temperature change in the last couple of years."

Could have read in the 1990s.

"What happened, and this is why this argument is so very, very dangerous, is that solar activity and the El Nino we're in now have conspired to add up to produce very, very large temperature change in the last couple of years."

and when it changed to the low activity sun and the dominance of the La Ninas, we got the opposite of 'global warming'.

The big question is not whether it is warm or cold outside, it's whether or not CO2 is the driver of the climate.

If the sun and ENSO can flip flop and the climate follows while CO2 keeps advancing, then CO2 is not the driver.

If CO2 is not the driver, then there is no need for carbon taxes or excessive regulations to reduce carbon.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

#4 Sep 14, 2013
The 50 to 1 Project

What if I could show you that it’s 50 times more expensive to try and STOP climate change than it is to ADAPT to climate change? Well I can, in less than 10 minutes, right here in this video.
http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/#p...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#5 Sep 14, 2013
Fun Facts wrote:
and when it changed to the low activity sun and the dominance of the La Ninas, we got the opposite of 'global warming'.
What, cooling?

No, we didn't.

The world is still warming.
LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#6 Sep 14, 2013
Earthling-1 wrote:
The 50 to 1 Project
What if I could show you that it’s 50 times more expensive to try and STOP climate change than it is to ADAPT to climate change? Well I can, in less than 10 minutes, right here in this video.
The you would be claiming more expertise than the economists, who pretty much estimate that there would only be a slight short term penalty and a long term gain.

Can we expect a link to your peer reviewed paper? Not watching your video even for cheap entertainment. The number of ways to waste money on ANY issue are infinite and of no relevance.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#7 Sep 14, 2013
Earthling-1 wrote:
The 50 to 1 Project
What if I could show you that it’s 50 times more expensive to try and STOP climate change than it is to ADAPT to climate change? Well I can, in less than 10 minutes, right here in this video.
http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/#p...
Spamalot.
Fair Game wrote:
A 20 year old who talks about himself in the third person?
Who is only able to produce one "scientist", who happens to be 90 years old and has a history of denying scientific evidence going back to when he denied the link between smoking and cancer.
Really?
Out of all the climate scientists active in the field, he couldn't find one to be in his film?
And who calls Marc Morano an investigative journalist?
http://www.desmogblog.com/marc-morano
These are people with their back pockets stuffed with fossil fuel industry money, and a history of lying.
And "topher" is just a opportunistic, self obsessed youth trying to grab some undeserved attention jumping on the denial band wagon.
You won't find the truth about global warming here.

Since: May 13

Location hidden

#8 Sep 14, 2013
Earthling-1 wrote:
The 50 to 1 Project
What if I could show you that it’s 50 times more expensive to try and STOP climate change than it is to ADAPT to climate change? Well I can, in less than 10 minutes, right here in this video.
http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/#p...
Good video, it's always been about the money. Not quite as they described it, don't think the people wanting the money will change the climate, but they do want the money.
LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#9 Sep 14, 2013
FF aka Fossil Fuels wrote:
<quoted text>
Good video, it's always been about the money. Not quite as they described it, don't think the people wanting the money will change the climate, but they do want the money.
The ones raking in the money are those who have the country over a barrel (of oil) and can charge whatever they want (inelastic demand). Economists KNOW and have been warning of the economic cost of fossil fuels for DECADES. Now we see it in the weekly rise in gasoline prices.

And their denial certainly won't change the climate (change) or AGW, which is going on pure physics, not politics.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

#10 Sep 14, 2013
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
<quoted text>
The ones raking in the money are those who have the country over a barrel (of oil) and can charge whatever they want (inelastic demand). Economists KNOW and have been warning of the economic cost of fossil fuels for DECADES. Now we see it in the weekly rise in gasoline prices.
And their denial certainly won't change the climate (change) or AGW, which is going on pure physics, not politics.
Physics may be in play, but the data is flawed.

How many times has someone posted about the adjustments being made to the temp records. How many governments have objected to the temperatures being changed. How many times have I reported on my own area's temperatures being changed.

You and the others believe, and with belief comes absolute trust in the gurus of your belief. They're wrong. They are the men behind the curtain, the men who won't disclose their methodology or their source data. The men who won't comply with freedom of information requests, who make snide comments about those who dare to question, who use substandard methods of analysis.

It's time to shed the light of day on this process and let the chips fall where they may.

“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”.– J Robert Oppenheimer.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#11 Sep 14, 2013
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Physics may be in play, but the data is flawed.
How many times has someone posted about the adjustments being made to the temp records. How many governments have objected to the temperatures being changed. How many times have I reported on my own area's temperatures being changed.
How many times have you been told that the data are available online now, so why don't you go and do your own analysis and prove where temperatures have been "adjusted" or "changed"?

No sceptic has ever done the analysis and shown evidence of fraud.

Because of course there is none.

But the lies and slander continue. They show just how contemptibly immoral and unethical and desperate to deceive the "sceptics" are
LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#12 Sep 14, 2013
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
Physics may be in play, but the data is flawed.
Not as far as the science can determine. YOU are flawed, of course, but then you are not a scientist or even a decent amateur.
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
How many times has someone posted about the adjustments being made to the temp records.
Which can be understood if you take the time. But you are referring to the endless spam and 'conspiracy theory' tactics, I assume.
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
You and the others believe, and with belief comes absolute trust in the gurus of your belief.
I certainly trust the experts to BE experts. Unlike the trolls. I am not even confident of science backed by one study or a few people. I look towards the studies that are sufficiently solid to become 'theory' aka 'science fact' such as AGW.
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
They're wrong. They are the men behind the curtain, the men who won't disclose their methodology or their source data. The men who won't comply with freedom of information requests, who make snide comments about those who dare to question, who use substandard methods of analysis.
It's time to shed the light of day on this process and let the chips fall where they may.
“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”.– J Robert Oppenheimer.
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
They're wrong. They are the men behind the curtain, the men who won't disclose their methodology or their source data. The men who won't comply with freedom of information requests, who make snide comments about those who dare to question, who use substandard methods of analysis.
That is YOUR belief, in conspiracy theories. You may be right. Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean that this isn't a deep dark plot. But not likely...
Fun Facts wrote:
<quoted text>
“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”.– J Robert Oppenheimer.
Yes. And the way to detect error is by peer review, and by the science academies review which all point to AGW being 'solid science'.

Your sources from bloggers, amateurs and the 'radical fringe' sciences are not very convincing even when they are not so blatantly distorted that even I can rebut them.
Fun Facts

Las Cruces, NM

#13 Sep 15, 2013

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#14 Sep 15, 2013
Fun Facts wrote:
And your point exactly is what?

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

#15 Sep 17, 2013
FuGyou wrote:
And your point exactly is what?
You're boring.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#16 Sep 17, 2013
The global warming is one symptom of the CO2 malady..

global climate change
sea-level rise
ocean acidification
species extinctions
increased malaria and other diseases
food shortages
habitat destruction
civil unrest a la Arab Spring
resource wars
floods
droughts
climate refugees
....

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

#17 Sep 17, 2013
Spambrat wrote:
The global warming is one symptom of the CO2 malady..
Haven't you heard, it isn't warming.
Spambrat wrote:
global[sic] climate change
Nothing that will ever bother you, or your unfortunate grandchildren.
Spambrat wrote:
sea[sic]-level rise
Has decelerated.
Spambrat wrote:
ocean[sic] acidification
Not a problem.
Spambrat wrote:
species[sic] extinctions
We're still waiting for the first caused by humans emissions.
Spambrat wrote:
increased[sic] malaria and other diseases
Only in your imagination.
Spambrat wrote:
food[sic] shortages
Doesn't exists, there's plenty of food, just not enough transport.
Spambrat wrote:
habitat[sic] destruction
Not caused by Glowbull warming or climate change.
Spambrat wrote:
civil[sic] unrest a la Arab Spring
n your dreams.
Spambrat wrote:
resource[sic] wars
Non existent, but wouldn't be caused by Glowbull warming or climate change anyway.
Spambrat wrote:
floods[sic]
There have always been floods.
Spambrat wrote:
droughts[sic]
See last reply.
Spambrat wrote:
climate[sic] refugees....
Not one 'climate refugee' exists.
litesong

Lynnwood, WA

#18 Sep 18, 2013
SpaceBlues wrote:
......climate refugees.....
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20130913/183416922/R...

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain hideaway, SE Spain

#19 Sep 18, 2013
litesoff wrote:
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20130 913/183416922/Russias-Record-F ar-East-Floods-Seen-From-Space .html?id=
"Refugee" isn't once mentioned in that article.
litesong

Lynnwood, WA

#20 Sep 18, 2013
[QUOTE who="slimy steenking filthy vile reprobate rooting(& rotting) racist pukey proud pig dirtling"] "Refugee" isn't once mentioned in that article.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for reading it. Refugee-somebody seeking safe place.

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