Schmahl Spew

Silver Spring, MD

#1 Mar 9, 2014
If you've been around for a few decades' worth of presidential elections, you probably have a strong sense of which parts of the country are trending toward or away from the two political parties. California has gone from swing state to blue state; Virginia has gone from red state to swing state; Tennessee has gone from swing state to red state; West Virginia didn't even bother to pause at swing state en route to switching from blue state to red state.

But why would that happen, in a country with nationalized campaigns, run mostly on nationwide media? Shouldn't the swing from election to election, from place to place, be pretty uniform? Well, no: The population of each state, and the characteristics of the people living there, constantly change. And knowing that different categories of people—whether it's based on race, or education, or religion, or marital status—are considerably more likely to vote a particular way, then it stands to reason that as the mix of people changes from place to place, so too will the way that place votes.

Several weeks ago, I wrote a post based around an interactive map that looked at how the presidential vote had changed at the county level over the last two decades, not in terms of percentage change like usual, but in terms of the raw number of votes. This showed how the changing geographical pattern of votes—huge numeric gains for the Democrats in the nation's most populous counties, while smaller gains for the Republicans were spread out across the nation's rural and exurban areas—is a huge boost for Democrats' chances in presidential elections but also (thanks to the increased consolidation of more and more Democrats in fewer and fewer places) makes control of the House more difficult.

While it looked cool, I later realized that it was missing an important component: the "why" aspect, explaining who moved into or out of those various places (or, just as importantly, aged into the electorate or died out of it). It occurred to me that I could use the exact same method, looking at the net change in, say, white residents versus non-white residents, or college-educated residents versus non-college-educated residents, over the same two-decade period. Most likely, it would show that the places that had tremendous growth in non-white residents or college-educated residents would be the same places that showed tremendous growth in Democratic votes. Did it? Follow over the fold to find out ...

More at http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/09/1282... #
LIbEralS

Saint Paul, MN

#2 Mar 10, 2014
"Democrats' chances in presidential elections but also (thanks to the increased consolidation of more and more Democrats in fewer and fewer places) makes control of the House more difficult."

We can only hope...
LIbEralS

Saint Paul, MN

#5 Mar 12, 2014
Something sure is shifting:

BRUTAL loss for Democrats in a "Must Win" race -

Privately regarded by Republicans as a weak candidate, the former lobbyist Jolly overcame both funding obstacles and a Libertarian party challenger who received five percent of the vote to beat Democrat Alex Sink.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/local/a...
LIbEralS

Saint Paul, MN

#9 Mar 17, 2014
Right wing shill?

Chris Matthews said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that Democrats heard from “the ghost of Christmas future” earlier this week when Democrat Alex Sink lost to Republican David Jolly in a special election for Florida’s 13th congressional district on Tuesday.

Read more: http://thehill.com/video/senate/200691-matthe...
Follow us:@thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook
LiBerals

Saint Paul, MN

#10 Mar 17, 2014
LIbEralS wrote:
Right wing shill?
Chris Matthews said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that Democrats heard from “the ghost of Christmas future” earlier this week when Democrat Alex Sink lost to Republican David Jolly in a special election for Florida’s 13th congressional district on Tuesday.
Read more: http://thehill.com/video/senate/200691-matthe...
Follow us:@thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook
The Republicans have held that seat for 58 years Bro.man,,most of the old school Dems just show some much need respect for that seat since the congressman died in office as a republican and got elected as a republican and had only a few months left in his term,well were the type of party who wouldn't take advantage of a dead guy so we let his party survivor maintain his republican seat in november all will be fair game.
Bob-O

Saint Paul, MN

#12 Mar 17, 2014
LiBerals wrote:
<quoted text>
The Republicans have held that seat for 58 years Bro.man,,most of the old school Dems just show some much need respect for that seat since the congressman died in office as a republican and got elected as a republican and had only a few months left in his term,well were the type of party who wouldn't take advantage of a dead guy so we let his party survivor maintain his republican seat in november all will be fair game.
Yes were a decent party with good values.
LIbEralS

Saint Paul, MN

#13 Mar 17, 2014
Bob-O wrote:
<quoted text>
Yes were a decent party with good values.
I think you had a typo. It should be "Yes, were is a decent party with good values."

Since: Sep 11

Rogers, MN

#14 Mar 17, 2014
Bob-O wrote:
<quoted text>
Yes were a decent party with good values.
Yes. Just ask Anthony Weiner or Slick Willie or Rod Blagoyovich. The creme de la creme of human decency.

Why, suffice it to say, all members of congress, both house and senate, members of both parties, are just all around decent, law abiding citizens who just want whats best for America.

By the way, if you believe that, I have some beachfront property on Europa you might enjoy at a very competitive price.
redeemer

Saint Paul, MN

#15 Mar 17, 2014
cantmakeitup wrote:
<quoted text>
Yes. Just ask Anthony Weiner or Slick Willie or Rod Blagoyovich. The creme de la creme of human decency.
Why, suffice it to say, all members of congress, both house and senate, members of both parties, are just all around decent, law abiding citizens who just want whats best for America.
By the way, if you believe that, I have some beachfront property on Europa you might enjoy at a very competitive price.
You seem to have forgotten to add John Ensign,David Vitter,Herman Cain,Larry Craig,Dinesh D'Souza,Mark Foley,Clarence Thomas,Bob McDonnell, to your list fraud.

Since: Sep 11

Rogers, MN

#16 Mar 17, 2014
redeemer wrote:
<quoted text>
You seem to have forgotten to add John Ensign,David Vitter,Herman Cain,Larry Craig,Dinesh D'Souza,Mark Foley,Clarence Thomas,Bob McDonnell, to your list fraud.
I didn't forget anyone. But the going trend of the thread was how upright and decent democrats are as a party. Not republicans. Try to pay attention.
redeemer

Saint Paul, MN

#17 Mar 17, 2014
cantmakeitup wrote:
<quoted text>
I didn't forget anyone. But the going trend of the thread was how upright and decent democrats are as a party. Not republicans. Try to pay attention.
How old are you idiot,you sound like a ten year old going on 70 your pitiful and and full of more crap then a xmas turkey,you can't compete with me liar ,you should join a make a friend club,because I'm tired of you swing on my basketball sacks loser.
Trigger

Minneapolis, MN

#18 Mar 17, 2014
Libertards have bought votes plain and simple.

Freeloaders vote Libertard, those willing to work vote Conservative.

Freeloaders need a mommy Government takeing care of them.

Conservatives are willing to work their butts/brains off to earn a living.
redeemer

Saint Paul, MN

#19 Mar 17, 2014
Trigger wrote:
Libertards have bought votes plain and simple.
Freeloaders vote Libertard, those willing to work vote Conservative.
Freeloaders need a mommy Government takeing care of them.
Conservatives are willing to work their butts/brains off to earn a living.
Not them Conservatives in congress!they are the biggest Freeloaders,vacation takers that have ever been elected.
Thanks Boner and Mitch for the worst idiots that the U.S Congress has ever had.

2014........Go Dems don't believe the hype.........Were moving Forward for America.

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