Oahu home prices slip in some areas - The Honolulu Advertiser

[RayEm]

pj,
You might want to read this.

Realtors' Numbers: Spinning Beyond Belief
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22009801

[Loser]

ipj737 wrote:

So what in the world is your point? I have no idea why that property was listed and relisted twice. Maybe the seller changed realtors? Maybe the realtor didn't want to work with the seller? Maybe the seller changed his/her mind about selling then changed his/her mind again?? Maybe the seller's wife or husband changed his/her mind? Maybe the seller is Chinese and they didn't like the sequence of numbers for their MLS#?? Maybe the kids wanted to keep it? Maybe they felt the price was too low and wanted to wait a few more years? Maybe the seller had to take care of an issue with the property (mortgage or tax liens, termite problem, plumbing problem, electrical problem, non-conformance problem, etc, etc, etc, etc)??? Who in the world knows???
Your post has no relevance to the topic at hand. If this type of activity (listing, relisting, going into escrow immediately after listing a second or third time) was happening very frequently (e.g. >30% of listings) then we might have an issue. But this activity occured before when the market was HOT and when the market was COLD and when the market was in the GUTTER and when the market was in the STRATOSPHERE.
You actually believe that prices are where they are because NAR is somehow skewing the facts, skewing the figures, skewing the math? Was 9-11 a US job too? You need help. Seriously.

You argue with yourself alot, don't you.

[RayEm]

pj,
You must have read the Oahu's latest SFH sales right now. There were only 245 SFH sales. That's the lowest November sales since 1999 when 230 homes were sold.

Don't worry, "Kauai condo prices up 40% but sales soft". "Sales soft" means a whopping 66% dropped compared to the same month last year. Only 12 units sold. Do they ever teach ethics in journalism?
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/20...

[Brian]

Hey - everyone - sorry to get in the way of this argument, but I have a few questions - any honest responses appreciated:

1. We have visited Hawaii several times and may be interested in purchasing a modest home or land for retirement. How are those of us from the mainland viewed by native Hawaiians?

2. If we are generally normal, nice people - would we be accepted or viewed with suspicion? I ask b/c in Idaho people who move here from California and buy real estate are treated cautiously by many. This is usually because out of staters say they come here for the peace and rural quiet, but freak out if they hear cows mooing or get behind a tractor on the way to work. They also want different traffic laws and all kinds of laws for zoning changed, for example.

3. Is it true if a volcano erupts and you are a landowner with a home - any lava that flows on your land makes it state property and you lose all rights to your property? Is this a rumor or true? Are there exceptions or can you ever get it back?

4. Public school situation in Maui - great, good, bad, ugly? Do private schools exist and are they any good?

Thanks all for your help. We really love the upcountry area in Maui but need to explore other islands before we decide.

[ipj737]

Brian wrote:

Hey - everyone - sorry to get in the way of this argument, but I have a few questions - any honest responses appreciated:
1. We have visited Hawaii several times and may be interested in purchasing a modest home or land for retirement. How are those of us from the mainland viewed by native Hawaiians? 2. If we are generally normal, nice people - would we be accepted or viewed with suspicion? I ask b/c in Idaho people who move here from California and buy real estate are treated cautiously by many. This is usually because out of staters say they come here for the peace and rural quiet, but freak out if they hear cows mooing or get behind a tractor on the way to work. They also want different traffic laws and all kinds of laws for zoning changed, for example.

If you move into a community in Waianae and start raising a stink about this and that, the neighbors will hate you. If you move into a community in Hawaii Kai and raise a stink about this and that, you will fit right in. It’s not really so much a race issue but you are expected to “prove” yourself as a respectful new neighbor if you are a mainlander moving into a neighborhood with predominantly local people (mainly Polynesians). Local people will respect you as long as you are willing to accept their way of life. Bottom line, if you respect the locals and don’t mind their way of life, you will get along just fine. Locals are generally not racist (like many “locals” in many parts of the mainland) but they might put up a temporary wall until they see that you will respect them.

Brian wrote:

3. Is it true if a volcano erupts and you are a landowner with a home - any lava that flows on your land makes it state property and you lose all rights to your property? Is this a rumor or true? Are there exceptions or can you ever get it back?

No, not true. You have some issues if you have lava flowing through your home. And you can’t get a bldg permit on a lot that had a recent lava flow (I think for decades) so you might as well give it to the state and save on property tax. You won’t want it.

Brian wrote:

4. Public school situation in Maui - great, good, bad, ugly? Do private schools exist and are they any good?
Thanks all for your help. We really love the upcountry area in Maui but need to explore other islands before we decide.

If you want to move to Maui there is no threat for lava, BTW. Public schools on Maui aren’t exactly good when compared to most public schools in more educated parts of the mainland. In terms of quality of education, if you compare the average Hawaii public school and the average California public school, Cali wins. However, while I can’t speak for private schools on Maui, Oahu has many good private schools w/tuitions on par with good mainland private schools.

[ipj737]

RayEm wrote:

pj,
You must have read the Oahu's latest SFH sales right now. There were only 245 SFH sales. That's the lowest November sales since 1999 when 230 homes were sold.
Don't worry, "Kauai condo prices up 40% but sales soft". "Sales soft" means a whopping 66% dropped compared to the same month last year. Only 12 units sold. Do they ever teach ethics in journalism?
http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/20...

November - January are always dead months. Very little activity during those months. Just look at the charts and notice the steep drop in home sales EVERY YEAR? Considering that Nov put us about 45-60 days out of the HUGE credit debacle, I think the numbers are great. Rates are low, low, low now and the outlook is for flat to lower rates in the coming months. This might spur some activity come January-February.

[Just Do It]

Brian wrote:

We really love the upcountry area in Maui but need to explore other islands before we decide.

If you like Upcountry, then consider the Kamuela/Waimea area of the Big Island. Similar climate, nice small town with several pretty good private schools (but expensive) and so-so public schools. There are other areas on the Big Island that also have that Upcountry feel, but Kamuela probably has more amenities in the way of nearby schools/shopping/hospital. It's becoming somewhat gentrified because it is desirable, but still very much country. Check it out on your next trip.

[Brian]

Hey thanks everyone for the advice and keep it coming!! Funny, our last trip to the Big Island reminded us of Idaho very much, once we drove away from the beaches. Sounds like being accepted is much like here, don't try to come in with a bunch of crazy ideas and accept us for the way we are.

I am wondering if we live there 6 months out of the year, is it advisable to rent our house for the other 6 months or lock it up and have someone check on it and clean occasionally? I guess everywhere you go you have to be cautious of renters, although I was one for many years and always kept my rental clean.

If anyone knows a good, honest real estate agent in Maui or the Big Island they would recommend and will likely be in the business the next few years, please pass their name along. Mahalo!

[Just Do It]

Brian wrote:

Hey thanks everyone for the advice and keep it coming!! Funny, our last trip to the Big Island reminded us of Idaho very much, once we drove away from the beaches. Sounds like being accepted is much like here, don't try to come in with a bunch of crazy ideas and accept us for the way we are.
I am wondering if we live there 6 months out of the year, is it advisable to rent our house for the other 6 months or lock it up and have someone check on it and clean occasionally? I guess everywhere you go you have to be cautious of renters, although I was one for many years and always kept my rental clean.
If anyone knows a good, honest real estate agent in Maui or the Big Island they would recommend and will likely be in the business the next few years, please pass their name along. Mahalo!

"Good, honest real estate agent"? Sorta like asking for a "kind, thoughtful serial killer." LOL. Nah, I'm sure people can make some recommendations.

Seems like the rental decision would be driven by financial issues more than anything else. If money is no object, then why rent and deal with the hassle? But if it is (an object), then it seems like it would make sense to get some cash flow out of it, provided you get good renters who take care of the property.

Along those lines, if you ever decide to rent out an Upcountry or Waimea property for 6 months a year, let me know. I live on Oahu, but that would be great! I'm sure there are others like me.

One thing about Waimea -- there's a "wet side" and a "dry side." Mold can be a problem on the wet side, esp. if you leave the house shut up for any length of time. I wouldn't be surprised if parts of Upcountry are like that too. There are various approaches... I guess the easiest would just be to make sure you buy on the "dry side."

Regardless, even if you don't rent it out, you'd probably want someone to check in on it every now & then. I'd be willing to do that too, in exchange for a few days stay. Housesit, mow the lawn, take care of the yard, etc. I guess ideally, though, you'd find someone who lives right there, even a neighbor, if possible.

[RayEm]

ipj737 wrote:

<quoted text>
November - January are always dead months. Very little activity during those months.

Last month was the most "dead" month of November since 1999. SFH sales down 35%, 33% and 16% from same months of 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. For condos, sales down 40%, 38% and 10% from the same months of 2004, 2005, and 2006 respectively.

The downward trend accelerated last September when SFH sales dropped 33% from the previous month.

You can NEVER justify for "November - January are always dead months".

[RayEm]

ipj737 wrote:

<quoted text>
November - January are always dead months. Very little activity during those months. Just look at the charts and notice the steep drop in home sales EVERY YEAR? Considering that Nov put us about 45-60 days out of the HUGE credit debacle, I think the numbers are great.

Hawaii is affected with the "HUGE credit debacle"? Is this coming from you? What happened to the foreign investors, the limited land, the plasma TVs, how conservative the lending standard in Hawaii, and etc.?

According to the Honolulu Advertiser article published in September, the credit debacle should have a little effect in sales. Link has been deleted but used to be at http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.d...

Here's the excerpt:

"Tom Zimmerman, president of Central Pacific HomeLoans, said he doubts there will be any perceivable drop in home sales, which have been on a general decline since mid-2005.

Russell Miyashiro, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Hawaii, said he expects lending restrictions will have no more impact on sales than interest rates rising a half point since early in the year, which hasn't caused sales to tumble.

"Amazingly, our market is still vibrant," he said."

Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said he doesn't expect much change in sales. "I really see very little effect," he said."

[HIIslander]

Brian wrote:

1. How are those of us from the mainland viewed by native Hawaiians?

Like an invasive species, in many (but not all) cases. One interesting thing is that the more mixed blood, the more animosity. A lot have been taught to hate the part of themselves that's white (many are a portion) in indirect but very impacting ways.

Brian wrote:

2. If we are generally normal, nice people - would we be accepted or viewed with suspicion?

Seems like you have a grasp of what not to do, come here and expect to change everything. The fact that you reconize this really increases your chance of being accepted. One more thing that is not tolerated is not listening. One big stereotype is that we all talk too much and think we know everything. In so many cases this tends to be accurate. Many of us came from cities, where you almost had to be this way to be heard.

Brian wrote:

We really love the upcountry area in Maui but need to explore other islands before we decide.

You could consider Waimea area on Hawai'i Island-similiar feel to upcountry Maui. This is also the ONLY area on the island with a satisfactory medical facility. As far as schooling, there is the Hawaii Prepatory Academy (also termed "Haole Protection Agency")in the area, but the kids tend to live in a little protective bubble appart from culture. Charter schools are getting great all over the island. Regular public schools are terrible.

You seem like a very humble person and asked all the right questions. I wish more people did this research. You will probably do fine.

[HIIslander]

RayEm wrote:

<quoted text>
Last month was the most "dead" month of November since 1999.

Yipee!

[RayEm]

An article from a lawyer that the mortgage industry should read.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi...

[Rayem]

ipj737 wrote:

Most of the mainland is holding out well (<10% decline in valuations). It’s only select markets that are taking a tumble and it’s primarily those in areas that saw HUGE price run ups and/or are way overbuilt and/or were bought with sketchy money. We saw roughly 100-125% in our neck of the woods. Certain parts (including communities and entire cities) of the mainland saw 200-300% increases in <5 years. Obviously they are going to take a big tumble.
Do you know how long you’ve been spewing your bubble-propaganda on the HonAd sites? Well, almost 2 years now. And nothing has happened yet. You running out of breath yet? Interestingly, over the last 2 years (when prices remained relatively flat), incomes have gone up 11% and inflation roughly the same. Also, two years ago, interest rates were HIGHER than today. So guess what… many properties on Oahu are actually more affordable today than 2 years ago even if prices are slightly higher in nominal terms.
Construction costs have gone up 30%-40% over the last 2 years. During the same time, home prices were almost flat. So being that homes cost a lot more to build today than two years ago don’t you think this will increase the cost of homes and put upwards pressure on home prices? If prices drop even 10%, where do you think the developers will go? All desirable locations on this island have already been built to 100% of its land capacity. Developers don’t have the same stupid-high margins that they did two years ago – not even close. If the developers pull out because margins erode to single digits and there is no real excess inventory (Oahu has NO excess inventory), what happens when the expected 150,000 additional people cram our island over the next 10 years? What will these additional people mean to our home prices? Prices MUST remain high enough for developers to be profitable – now and in the long term; otherwise they cancel projects and pull out. Again, we DON’T have any more land to develop in desirable areas and the land in less desirable areas is very limited and don’t provide the infrastructure required to build even remotely sustainable developments.
During the same two years, the dollar has lost 30% of its buying power (actually more like 40% after you take into account inflation). Overseas investors can buy real estate at a virtual 30%+ discount over prices 2 years ago despite nominal prices being flat or modestly higher. Take into account that China has almost doubled their number of millionaires and you can see how we’re looking pretty desirable even at our current prices.
If your home is up 150%+ since 2000 (with no apparent gentrification or positive demographic shift in your immediate area), you will more than likely see a nice fat drop. However, if your home increased in value by 100-125% since 2000, you are doing just fine and will see no more than 10-15% MAX decline in valuations. And prices will recover and surpass today’s prices in short order. Trying to time the “bottom” of the market is impossible. If you can find a home you really like and can keep for at least 10 years AND you can afford it, buying is not a bad idea.
How many more monthly data points do you need before you run out of breath? Or maybe you never run out of breath? You’ve been wrong for nearly two years now (at least what’s documented on HonAd but probably much longer than two years). How long do you have to be wrong until you’re just wrong? Or perhaps according to you, you haven’t been wrong yet, right? You one funny guy.

"Most of the mainland is holding out well (<10% decline in valuations). "

Really? Which mainland? Mainland China?

[Rayem]

ipj737 wrote:

<quoted text>
Just closed on an Indymac loan. They are a new player and they are aggressive. They have pretty strict requirements (740+ FICO for best programs which is 20 points higher than average). My friend apprised me of exactly what's stated in the PBN article so that was interesting. Indy's not the best for first time homeowners with poor credit and they won't touch condotels with a ten foot pole. But they have some really good programs with aggressive rates. Looking to do more business with them.

Anymore news about Indymac?