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ohana8
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This is just the beginning... Now where is pj737?
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ainahina
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The blood sucking GREEDY REALTORS
created this mess !!!!
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Returned Home
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ainahina wrote: The blood sucking GREEDY REALTORS
created this mess !!!! ...Ditto
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Economics
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ainahina wrote: The blood sucking GREEDY REALTORS
created this mess !!!! It's not the realtors. It's just supply and demand... in this case, high demand fed (no pun intended) by easy credit/high liquidity. If realtors alone had that much power to control the market, then they'd just keep it going up all the time. You're gonna see a lot of real estate agents lose their jobs in the next year or two.
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sheath
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For more information where prices are going visit: www.patrick.net
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Phil_am
Fpo, AP
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Thing I never understand, is how average family income in Hawaii can be what $50K, Average 3BR 2 bath should not be selling for more than $200K. How does family making $50K pay a $36K mortage?
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Guru Questions
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Real Estate Guru-1978-07 wrote: Real estate in Hawaii is going to go through another correction...but it will be in line with other ones in the past...there has always been a "premium" for Hawaii real estate for obvious reasons...this dip will last a couple of years...then it will be flat for a year, then it will start forming a normal market. The doom-savers are always the first to jump in...and the stock market/CNN talking-heads will always pound down real estate because that is their #1 competitor...for obvious reasons...it is "real"...people still need a place to live...inflation is waaay higher than the government admits, the dollar is crashing faster than ever, more foreigners are getting ready to pounce on our real estate...just wait a year or two when the Chinese buyers decend upon us like they did in Seattle when Hong Kong was taken back in the late 1990's. Don't panic and fall for the hype. We have been through all of this before, from 1986-92 with the RTC bailout...stocks have been through it several times...it is becoming a great time to buy again here and especially on the mainland's interior....simply put, Hawaii is a different kind of a market, and will correct 10%, or so, then when the inventory is gobbled up, prices will be higher than ever in 5 years. Boomers/foreigners/the dollar/real inflation/only so much Hawaii real estate for sale/retirees/and population increases and a fairly strong economy will be the controlling factors here in Hawaii.
Just sit tight and relax. The sub-prime mess is more of a mainland phenomena than here in Hawaii anyway.
Live and learn....Aloha! Interesting comments, and I trust (per your chosen screen name) that you do in fact know what you're talking about. Would the same arguments re: foreign purchasers also apply, then, to some of the other hot, high-end markets on the Mainland? Are Chinese currently restricted from making foreign (e.g., US) real estate purchases? Would you expect Middle East oil dollars to similarly affect high-end Mainland markets? If so, when? You speak of hidden US inflation -- what about known Chinese inflation? Couldn't that have very adverse effects on their economy?
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rayEm
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"Harvey Shapiro, a research economist with the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said it's not clear whether median price changes are more a result of shifting values or the mix of homes sold."
Can anyone help our "research economist"? Any volunteer?
BTW, The article failed or deliberately omitted the number of sales which is more important than price in this market condition. The Honolulu Board of Realtors will report homes sales statistics this week and I think that sales numbers are like the Great Depression. I believe that is the reason why this article is focused only on price.
But then again, this is what out LOCAL real estate folks were saying just this month:
But many Hawai'i housing industry observers believe that the state's growing economy, stable home prices and strong housing demand fueled in part by baby-boomer migration should help insulate the market from a mortgage finance-related slump.
Tom Zimmerman, president of Central Pacific HomeLoans, said he doubts there will be any perceivable drop in home sales, which have been on a general decline since mid-2005.
Russell Miyashiro, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Hawaii, said he expects lending restrictions will have no more impact on sales than interest rates rising a half point since early in the year, which hasn't caused sales to tumble.
"Amazingly, our market is still vibrant," he said.
Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said he doesn't expect much change in sales. "I really see very little effect," he said.
Can all of these people be wrong?
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rayEm
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ohana8 wrote: This is just the beginning... Now where is pj737? Someone here sounds like pj737.
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JJB
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Sure does, but without the "sour renter" remarks".
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Cat Manapua
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Real Estate Guru-1978-07 wrote: some markets are ripe...like Vegas.... You silly goose. Vegas? For the love of god, man...Vegas is absolutely the pits and the market (and selling prices) are going down faster than yo' momma at the beer garden. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange - you know the guys with the futures index - have predicted a further 24% drop in Vegas prices through 2008. Unlike you, these guys actually put money on their predictions. You can buy options on this if you like. You need a major dose of reality, bub. Stupid Hawaii RE agents.
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ohana8
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JJB wrote: Sure does, but without the "sour renter" remarks". I agree - judging on the lack of insults, I'd say PJ is still attempting to find favorable BoH data. Got MochiCrunch!
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Sure Sure
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rayEm wrote: "Harvey Shapiro, a research economist with the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said it's not clear whether median price changes are more a result of shifting values or the mix of homes sold."
Can anyone help our "research economist"? Any volunteer?
BTW, The article failed or deliberately omitted the number of sales which is more important than price in this market condition. The Honolulu Board of Realtors will report homes sales statistics this week and I think that sales numbers are like the Great Depression. I believe that is the reason why this article is focused only on price.
But then again, this is what out LOCAL real estate folks were saying just this month:
But many Hawai'i housing industry observers believe that the state's growing economy, stable home prices and strong housing demand fueled in part by baby-boomer migration should help insulate the market from a mortgage finance-related slump.
Tom Zimmerman, president of Central Pacific HomeLoans, said he doubts there will be any perceivable drop in home sales, which have been on a general decline since mid-2005.
Russell Miyashiro, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Hawaii, said he expects lending restrictions will have no more impact on sales than interest rates rising a half point since early in the year, which hasn't caused sales to tumble.
"Amazingly, our market is still vibrant," he said.
Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Honolulu Board of Realtors, said he doesn't expect much change in sales. "I really see very little effect," he said.
Can all of these people be wrong? Of course not, they're all totally unbiased. Haha.
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Gold Bug
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Real Estate Guru-1978-07 wrote: One more post for the naysayers of the power of real estate...my parents bought their first home for $8,400 in 1953 in Venice, CA. It is now worth $800,000, with no improvements. This is but one of many examples. Look at your paychecks for the last 25 years. They are at least 7 times larger for the same work. Two big bags of groceries were $5 when I was a kid...now it is far more than that for just a few items. House payments were $29 a month on the house above(920 square feet), now they are $4,000-5,000/ month for the same house. Why? When the government(Nixon) went off the gold standard in 1973 the dollar became a floating currencies rather than backed by the gold standard. It is no longer money as we know it. This causes huge dislocations. Governments float a currency by more than a MINIMUM of 3% a year to keep the economy running. They readily admit this. When they say inflation is pegged at 2-3% like they have in the last year... they are simply lying. For example...gas is up 200% in 3 years...housing doubled...food is shooting up at 15% a year....medical is up higher than ever at a 15% increase per year.....do you use any of these things? Of course you do...we all do. But interestingly, none of this is factored into the "official" inflation rate. Why? Politics. Factor in a dollar decline like never before due to out of control spending, the war, 3 trillion dollars "missing" as government officials(Rumsfeld) admited...jobs moving to China/India by the millions, the decline of pensions/...and everything else...and you have a hyper-inflation scenario in the making here in the USA. And it affects everything. Most people think they are making more money now thatn ever before....but as the example above demonstrates...it is the same house, in the same location, no additions or anything else, and it has "appreciated" a hundred-fold in 45 years. And this is a normal appreciation rate in CA. That is the reason why real estate is valuable and why you buy on the dips that are forming now. Just ask yourself...what if you had invested in 2 or 3 homes 10-20 years ago? What if? Could you have "saved $800,000 over the last 20 years paying rent? In 10-20 years these same homes will be worth millions...of depreciated dollars. You will be making several times your remaining mortgage balance each month in twenty years. Think about it.
The government knows this...they are in control of the game, they make the rules...built in inflation is reality so that they can manipulate the economy for political reasons and pay off their debts with cheaper dollars. In a sense, Clinton did that 8 years ago...Russia just did it this year. Bottom line, make good investments while you can, let them inflate, manage and take care of them, sell one when the time is right, then payoff all the others. Now is the time to start your due-dillegence on your next purchase. The market will turn quickly, so be ready...now is the time to study the market you are interested in...some markets are ripe...like Vegas....some need more time....just remember that and listen to your gut. Aloha! If your hyperinflation scenario comes to pass, wouldn't gold be a better investment than real estate, at least short-term? Also, how long do you think the foreigners who are basically funding America will accept losing money via the falling dollar?
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Joined: Sep 28, 2007
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I agree with Guru. There's a good book called "Cash In On The Coming Real Estate Crash" by David Decker and George Sheldon. Timing is everything and there are some great deals on the mainland right now. Buy low.
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rayEm
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Palolo Lolo wrote: I agree with Guru. There's a good book called "Cash In On The Coming Real Estate Crash" by David Decker and George Sheldon. Timing is everything and there are some great deals on the mainland right now. Buy low. Don't buy until there's an uptick and tested, otherwise, you will be buying low and selling lower.
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EatLessReadMore
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This information would be aided by the inclusion of the standard deviation, clarifying the relevance of the median value.
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ohana8
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rayEm wrote: <quoted text>
Don't buy until there's an uptick and tested, otherwise, you will be buying low and selling lower. Agree - there have been speculations by many (pj737 being one of them) that say 10 to max 15% off current is the bottom - if you believe that, I wish you well. Personally if I were in the market to buy, I would wait and just rent and save the required 20%- 25% down you will need around the end of 2010. Got MochiCrunch!
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Coming Events
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Stagflation followed by recession. Hawaii will be hit by drops in real estate and tourism. Notice how the pace of downward revisions to economic outlooks is gradually accelerating. I think the U.S. will try to forestall its problems just long enough so that they spill over to China just prior to the Olympics. A hit may be inevitable, but we won't go down alone, and we'll find a way to use it to our advantage. We're not gonna just sit back and watch China overtake us. The pain will be borne by the middle- and lower-classes, as usual.
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ohana8
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Real Estate Guru-1978-07 wrote: Real estate in Hawaii is going to go through another correction...but it will be in line with other ones in the past...there has always been a "premium" for Hawaii real estate for obvious reasons...this dip will last a couple of years...then it will be flat for a year, then it will start forming a normal market. The doom-savers are always the first to jump in...and the stock market/CNN talking-heads will always pound down real estate because that is their #1 competitor...for obvious reasons...it is "real"...people still need a place to live...inflation is waaay higher than the government admits, the dollar is crashing faster than ever, more foreigners are getting ready to pounce on our real estate...just wait a year or two when the Chinese buyers decend upon us like they did in Seattle when Hong Kong was taken back in the late 1990's. Don't panic and fall for the hype. We have been through all of this before, from 1986-92 with the RTC bailout...stocks have been through it several times...it is becoming a great time to buy again here and especially on the mainland's interior....simply put, Hawaii is a different kind of a market, and will correct 10%, or so, then when the inventory is gobbled up, prices will be higher than ever in 5 years. Boomers/foreigners/the dollar/real inflation/only so much Hawaii real estate for sale/retirees/and population increases and a fairly strong economy will be the controlling factors here in Hawaii.
Just sit tight and relax. The sub-prime mess is more of a mainland phenomena than here in Hawaii anyway.
Live and learn....Aloha! "just wait a year or two when the Chinese buyers decend upon us like they did in Seattle when Hong Kong was taken back in the late 1990's" You should re-read my post at - http://forums.honoluluadvertiser.com/viewtopi... " This could have a devastating effect on our local economy ; Hawaii's major source of income is the Tourist Industry. Expect the number of mainland visitors to slowly decrease as more and more run into financial hardship due to foreclosure / credit problems / debt issues etc. Now couple that with this news piece from the other side of the pacific and we may see our local economy in a world of hurt; From - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news... "Low rates are also leading to a house price bubble in Japan" Got MochiCrunch! "
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