New SAT's predictive ability up only slightly

The SAT, the most commonly used test in college admissions, is not much more effective at predicting first-year grades than it was before a major revamping three years ago, according to a study released ...

[Forks Gal]

A predictive validity score of .53 when there is clearly a restriiction of range issue* for this measure is impressive, and indicative of the importance the SATs hold in helping identify high school students who are ready for college vs. those who aren't.

When you consider all of the other variables that influence college student performance (attending class, completing assignments, avoiding drugs/alcohol/etc., getting a good night's sleep) there are few measures in humans with this high level of predictibility! It's certainly capturing something.

I hope all school systems are taking note that writing is the single greatest predictor of college success, and that they spend more time on teaching writing well!

*(people who do not plan on going to college do not take the exam, which will automatically decrease validity)

[bobby g]

Great post, Forks Gal!
I agree with most of your points and it is refreshing to see an intelligent post! You wouldn't be a Lafayette faculty member, would you?
I'm wondering, though, whether I agree with your point on restriction of range. First of all, those taking the test are not a sample but the entire population of college aspirants.
Second, it may be that there is more variability and a looser correlation between SAT and college performance as you go through the lower part of the high school distribution, thus the restriction of range may not attenuate predictive ability (?)
As to the point on writing, I have heard criticisms that the writing assessment is poorly administered. Yet it seems to predict better than verbal or math. Alternative explanation? The writing essay may actually be capturing motivation and conscientiousness as much or more than writing ability. I see this an awful lot in my students.
Let me know your thoughts!