rickjs Handicapping Picks 2012 NFL plays and Hilton contest picks

Posted in the Las Vegas Forum


Las Vegas, NV

#1 Sep 23, 2012
Saturday we went 2-1 on our 1 unit plays in College football. Auburn +18 was an easy winner. Army could of gone either way and we lost but Fla Int could of gone either way and we won.

Now onto the NFL. First going over the results from last week It is clear that nothing seemed to work for me in analyzing the games. Everything I used had no predictive value last week ..and also the games were not close. This can happen from week to week but certainly something to be aware of. It can also happen through the entire season. The sample size is very small in the NFL.

Also in the NFL its always a good sign when you are looking at a bet that you just cannot bring yourself to bet it. That your human instincts are screaming at you …DO NOT BET THIS! And its even stronger when your human instincts are screaming at you …BET THE OTHER SIDE!

The best analogy I can think of is the instrument pilot that is flying in the clouds with no visual reference. He gets disoriented and his Human instincts are telling him I am heading down….but his instruments are telling him he is OK …flying straight and level. And of course…human that he is…and most likely without appropriate training..he believes his instincts and flys the plane straight into the ground…and all he had to do is put aside his human instincts believe the instruments and stay safe.

Human instincts can be very tricky…especially when it comes to gambling. They tend to sabotage you at every step. And the books that make up these lines have the public psychology down to a science.

So…despite what my instincts are telling me about Tenn..after all…they were not competitive in their last 2 games….(of course they were on the road against New England and San Diego with a new quarterback) Now they are at home…and from what I have seen the quarterback has a lot of talent. That New England game could of gone the other way!

I am going to go against the 82% of the public that love Detroit in this spot…and even get the hook on the 3.

So onto today.

Sunday NFL
1 Unit play
Tenn +3.5

Twitter: rickjsportsplays

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