Letters to the Editor - Hawaii Editorials

Full story: Honolulu Star-Bulletin

Ever since the state of Hawaii outsourced its Medicaid services for the indigent population to WellCare and United Health Care , there has been nothing but chaos.
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181 - 192 of 192 Comments Last updated Oct 8, 2009
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Liberal Delusions

Kalaheo, HI

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#184
Oct 4, 2009
 
Yeah wrote:
<quoted text>What fundamentals are you referring to you're looking at for 2010 & 2012?
Random thoughts:

"Official" unemployment to peak near 11% in 2010, and then remain around that level through 2011... dropping very slowly thereafter, but remaining high from a historical perspective for quite a while. I think Democrats really need to get it at least below 8% or so by 2010 from a political standpoint in order to even be semi-tolerable for voters.

Resultant low consumer demand means continued overcapacity/oversupply in almost everything. Without production, you don't get growth. So low growth - GDP maybe fluctuating between 1%- 2% through that period, and partially due to "misleading" statistical and other measures that aren't indicative or supportive of true, sustainable growth (e.g., government spending).

Many more bank failures - in the hundreds, through that period, as CRE and personal loans continue to go bad, and mortgage loans also continue to sour. Banks are unwilling to lend when they're worried about simply surviving.

Housing stabilizing from now through 2011, but remaining stagnant for quite a while. Huge inventory overhang fed by continued defaults/foreclosures, banks reluctant to extend credit. Many foreclosed homes are being kept off the market by the banks. As they are gradually released, they'll continue to be a drag on prices.

CRE next major shoe to drop. No consumer demand will translate into more stores and businesses going under. At the same time, personal loan defaults will rise as unemployment remains high.

Stocks are richly valued, with expectations for a "V"-shaped recovery already priced in. They can go somewhat higher short-term, but I believe the eventual reality of long-term, reduced earnings will weigh on the market. I expect a double-dip "W" recovery at best, but more likely, a long, drawn-out "L' with small ups and downs on the tail, similar to Japan's lost decades. When we do have bouts of price inflation, it will be in specific commodities, like oil, and driven more by supply constraints than demand.

Continued low interest rates for the next few years. Despite all of that printed money and resultant inflation fears - you can't force people to spend, and you can't force bank to lend. No velocity means no (overall) inflation (depending on how you choose to define it, of course). I think disinflation/borderline deflation for quite a while. No tragic deflationary spiral, but no Zimbabwe hyperinflation either.

Boomers had driven much of consumer spending. Now it's time to save, retrench - but not spend. They've lost much of their paper wealth, and now the "negative wealth" aspect comes into play.

Higher taxes are inevitable. This will also be a drag on the economy.

Overall, social mood has shifted to frugality. A (forced, in part) return to simple, cheap, close-knit family and community values, recreation. On a macro level, this will be manifested by growing protectionism amongst nations.

Significant wildcards will be situations like Iran, a more serious swine flu pandemic, China internal instability, etc. I especially expect Iran to come to some kind of head within that timeframe, if not sooner. Who knows what that'll bring. Higher oil prices for sure. Nothing good to look forward to that I can see, other than perhaps the end result of a defanged Iran. But even that will bring other adverse repercussions.

I also fear that the proposed healthcare reform and cap-and-trade could have unintended, adverse effects on the economy, although they'd probably take a while to manifest - probably outside of the 2012 timeframe, depending on what and when.

What's your outlook, and what do you think Obama & Co. should do to get us out of this situation?

OK, gotta go, for real.
Yeah

Mililani, HI

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#185
Oct 4, 2009
 
Liberal Delusions wrote:
<quoted text>Confusing the "rule of law with the rule of science"? That's a new twist - yet another of your infamous ones.
From Wikipedia:
"The rule of law, also called supremacy of law, means that the law is above everyone and it applies to everyone. Whether governor or governed, rulers or ruled, no one is above the law, no one is exempted from the law, and no one can grant exemption to the application of the law."
From theFreeDictionary.com :
"rule of law - a state of order in which events conform to the law"
So when/where did you contend that I was confusing the two? How does the "rule of law" pertain to our discussion? I'm not even sure what you mean when you say the "the rule of science" - do you mean its supremacy, along the lines of the first definition... or are you saying that there is a so-called "rule" that describes or defines "science"? Please define that.
Just as you seem totally confused about the differences between facts and opinions, you now appear to be confused about the basic concept behind the term "rule of law," ... as well as once again fabricating new positions for both of us. Feeling extra creative?
I gotta go out and enjoy the day... suggest you climb out of your dark little box and do the same, if you haven't already. Have a great day!
lol! You still like Wikipedia, eh? Just can't decided what to do. Oh well as I said before that's par for the course.

But I see you are paying attention. You're correct. You didn't say the "rule of law." You said "court of law." I stand corrected before the conservative god. Yes, you have proven me to be human.

But you're still confused.

And you're still a liar.
Yeah

Mililani, HI

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#186
Oct 4, 2009
 
Liberal Delusions wrote:
<quoted text>Random thoughts:
"Official" unemployment to peak near 11% in 2010, and then remain around that level through 2011... dropping very slowly thereafter, but remaining high from a historical perspective for quite a while. I think Democrats really need to get it at least below 8% or so by 2010 from a political standpoint in order to even be semi-tolerable for voters.
Resultant low consumer demand means continued overcapacity/oversupply in almost everything. Without production, you don't get growth. So low growth - GDP maybe fluctuating between 1%- 2% through that period, and partially due to "misleading" statistical and other measures that aren't indicative or supportive of true, sustainable growth (e.g., government spending).
Many more bank failures - in the hundreds, through that period, as CRE and personal loans continue to go bad, and mortgage loans also continue to sour. Banks are unwilling to lend when they're worried about simply surviving.
Housing stabilizing from now through 2011, but remaining stagnant for quite a while. Huge inventory overhang fed by continued defaults/foreclosures, banks reluctant to extend credit. Many foreclosed homes are being kept off the market by the banks. As they are gradually released, they'll continue to be a drag on prices.
CRE next major shoe to drop. No consumer demand will translate into more stores and businesses going under. At the same time, personal loan defaults will rise as unemployment remains high.
Stocks are richly valued, with expectations for a "V"-shaped recovery already priced in. They can go somewhat higher short-term, but I believe the eventual reality of long-term, reduced earnings will weigh on the market. I expect a double-dip "W" recovery at best, but more likely, a long, drawn-out "L' with small ups and downs on the tail, similar to Japan's lost decades. When we do have bouts of price inflation, it will be in specific commodities, like oil, and driven more by supply constraints than demand.
Continued low interest rates for the next few years. Despite all of that printed money and resultant inflation fears - you can't force people to spend, and you can't force bank to lend. No velocity means no (overall) inflation (depending on how you choose to define it, of course). I think disinflation/borderline deflation for quite a while. No tragic deflationary spiral, but no Zimbabwe hyperinflation either.
Boomers had driven much of consumer spending. Now it's time to save, retrench - but not spend. They've lost much of their paper wealth, and now the "negative wealth" aspect comes into play.
Overall, social mood has shifted to frugality. A (forced, in part) return to simple, cheap, close-knit family and community values, recreation. On a macro level, this will be manifested by growing protectionism amongst nations.
Significant wildcards will be situations like Iran, a more serious swine flu pandemic, etc. I especially expect Iran to come to some kind of head within that timeframe, if not sooner. Who knows what that'll bring. Higher oil prices for sure. Nothing good to look forward to that I can see, other than perhaps the end result of a defanged Iran. But even that will bring other adverse repercussions.
I also fear that the proposed healthcare reform and cap-and-trade could have unintended, adverse effects on the economy, although they'd probably take a while to manifest - probably outside of the 2012 timeframe, depending on what and when.
What's your outlook, and what do you think Obama & Co. should do to get us out of this situation?
OK, gotta go, for real.
What's your source?
Liberal Delusions

Kalaheo, HI

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#187
Oct 4, 2009
 
Yeah wrote:
<quoted text>What's your source?
Haha.

I have reasons to study those things, so the facts come from a variety of sources, and the opinions are "mine," but also derived from a range of sources who are much smarter than I am (but who can also be dead wrong).

If you have an honest curiosity about a specific item/source, I can try and provide it. If you're just asking to "test" me, I don't want to play that game. I think we're both spending too much time on these forums.

I'm not into trying to predict the future, though. The opinions are just guesses, and that's fun to do, but not a good way to try and make money. I try to have overall theses as to what will happen, but I won't marry myself to any prediction, and am willing to change on a dime if unfolding events prove me wrong.
New Liberal Battle Cry

Kalaheo, HI

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#188
Oct 7, 2009
 
The Libs apparently have found a new battle cry to silence free speech and any viewpoints which run counter to their expressed agenda. First, they tried to discredit peaceful tea party and health care protestors by labeling them as "angry mobs," and "UN-AMERICAN."

Then, anyone who dared to disagree with them was called a "You're a RACIST!" They eventually figured out that didn't fly either.

The latest Lib label to be stuck on anyone who dares to disagree with their policies? "You're SEXIST!!"

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/10/put-...

Unfortunately, each new round of Liberal name-calling only serves to reveal the Left for what they are... and the American people are getting tired of the Democrats' dirty, partisan politics, and their authoritarian approach in attempting to silence people's right to free speech.

The American people will not be silenced by the Left.

Since: Sep 08

Honolulu

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#189
Oct 7, 2009
 

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New Liberal Battle Cry wrote:
The Libs apparently have found a new battle cry to silence free speech and any viewpoints which run counter to their expressed agenda. First, they tried to discredit peaceful tea party and health care protestors by labeling them as "angry mobs," and "UN-AMERICAN."
Then, anyone who dared to disagree with them was called a "You're a RACIST!" They eventually figured out that didn't fly either.
The latest Lib label to be stuck on anyone who dares to disagree with their policies? "You're SEXIST!!"
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/10/put-...
Unfortunately, each new round of Liberal name-calling only serves to reveal the Left for what they are... and the American people are getting tired of the Democrats' dirty, partisan politics, and their authoritarian approach in attempting to silence people's right to free speech.
The American people will not be silenced by the Left.
The "Left" is a large portion of "The American People" so your last comment is rather silly.

Actually, it looks like the Right is going to be told "shush" by ... the Right. The Limbaugh-Beck-Coulter crowd is being told, by the moderates, to tone it down.

Both Davids, Frum and Brooks, have spoken. A few politicians have chimed in. It appears to be a movement among the moderates to try to reclaim some of their base. I hope they are successful. We need rational conservatives back in the game; the loonies have taken over their party.

Perhaps the most worrisome part of this debate for the right is not that their own guys are asking them to give it a rest, but in letting the Limbaugh-OReilly-Hannity-Beck- Savage-Coulter crazies speak for them.

The conservatives have wound up with someone else's foot in their mouths.
alice

Hanalei, HI

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#190
Oct 7, 2009
 
odd how easily the rich can manipulate the poor into supporting the rich agemnda. Bush did it brilliantly yet he spat on the poor and laughed at them.
Count Otto Von Brunno

Kalaheo, HI

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#191
Oct 7, 2009
 
Bullshot Crummond wrote:
<quoted text>
The "Left" is a large portion of "The American People" so your last comment is rather silly.
Actually, it looks like the Right is going to be told "shush" by ... the Right. The Limbaugh-Beck-Coulter crowd is being told, by the moderates, to tone it down.
Both Davids, Frum and Brooks, have spoken. A few politicians have chimed in. It appears to be a movement among the moderates to try to reclaim some of their base. I hope they are successful. We need rational conservatives back in the game; the loonies have taken over their party.
Perhaps the most worrisome part of this debate for the right is not that their own guys are asking them to give it a rest, but in letting the Limbaugh-OReilly-Hannity-Beck- Savage-Coulter crazies speak for them.
The conservatives have wound up with someone else's foot in their mouths.
The Conservatives' foot has not been in their mouths... it has been kicking the cr*p out of Liberals. Not that it has been necessary, as the Libs have been tripping all over themselves ever since Obama took over.

But the plan is sound, and something that I was even going to suggest a while ago, with a similar thought process. Up till now, the Democrats have been their own worst enemy. It has been to the GOP's advantage to simply sit back and let them shoot themselves in their foot... and has prevented the Left from finding a convenient target to direct both blame and attention towards (thus the Dems attempts to portray various media figures as the "true leaders" of the GOP party).

The American people are clearly angry, though, and while much of it is focused on the Democrats, there is also a general anger towards the politicians in general, Wall Street, etc. The GOP needs to be smart about this and not overplay the gift hand that the Dems and circumstances have dealt them. Getting too cocky and acting too aggressively can serve to make them look like the villains, and also possibly draw some backlash sympathy for Obama and the Dems.

As long as the economy continues to falter, the people's anger will only grow. The most convenient target will be the majority party - the Democrats - and the GOP needs to do nothing to disrupt that negative focus through 2010 and onward. They are playing it smart.
alice

Hanalei, HI

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#192
Oct 7, 2009
 
alice wrote:
odd how easily the rich can manipulate the poor into supporting the rich agemnda. Bush did it brilliantly yet he spat on the poor and laughed at them.
true...odd how so many poor people in America do the bidding of those who despise them: the rich. makes no sense.

Since: Sep 08

Honolulu

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#193
Oct 7, 2009
 
Count Otto Von Brunno wrote:
<quoted text>The Conservatives' foot has not been in their mouths... it has been kicking the cr*p out of Liberals. Not that it has been necessary, as the Libs have been tripping all over themselves ever since Obama took over.
But the plan is sound, and something that I was even going to suggest a while ago, with a similar thought process. Up till now, the Democrats have been their own worst enemy. It has been to the GOP's advantage to simply sit back and let them shoot themselves in their foot... and has prevented the Left from finding a convenient target to direct both blame and attention towards (thus the Dems attempts to portray various media figures as the "true leaders" of the GOP party).
The American people are clearly angry, though, and while much of it is focused on the Democrats, there is also a general anger towards the politicians in general, Wall Street, etc. The GOP needs to be smart about this and not overplay the gift hand that the Dems and circumstances have dealt them. Getting too cocky and acting too aggressively can serve to make them look like the villains, and also possibly draw some backlash sympathy for Obama and the Dems.
As long as the economy continues to falter, the people's anger will only grow. The most convenient target will be the majority party - the Democrats - and the GOP needs to do nothing to disrupt that negative focus through 2010 and onward. They are playing it smart.
The right to express your opinion is guaranteed by the Constitution, as evidenced here, by your post. Your ability to state a reasonable opinion has not been so guaranteed, as evidenced here, by your post.
Count Otto Von Brunno

Kalaheo, HI

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#194
Oct 8, 2009
 
Bullshot Crummond wrote:
<quoted text>
The right to express your opinion is guaranteed by the Constitution, as evidenced here, by your post. Your ability to state a reasonable opinion has not been so guaranteed, as evidenced here, by your post.
Lenya, my dear, please hand me that vial of Cranial Stimulant X. It appears that our friend Crummond here requires our assistance in telling the truth. What a shame that we lack such a serum to also restore his wit!

Since: Sep 08

Honolulu

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#195
Oct 8, 2009
 

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Count Otto Von Brunno wrote:
<quoted text>Lenya, my dear, please hand me that vial of Cranial Stimulant X. It appears that our friend Crummond here requires our assistance in telling the truth. What a shame that we lack such a serum to also restore his wit!
If you had such a serum, I do believe you would have used it first upon yourself, Baron. Pity you could afford none. Ah, nevertheless, I do have more wit at ready than you, dear soul, as you are, per happenstance, essentially wit less! Darn those empty bottles, what?

Oh, Lenya, stop giggling at the Baron! When his Adam's apple bobbles against his cravat like that, you know he's suffering. He hates that mocking tittering of yours!

Please pass the K-Y, Lenya. The Baron is bowing.

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