Florida Keys prepare for sea level rise

Jul 2, 2013 Full story: Star-Telegram.com 8

Hurricane storm surge can inundate the narrow, low-lying Florida Keys, but that is far from the only water worry for officials.

Full Story
LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#1 Jul 2, 2013
"Seasonal tidal flooding that was once a rare inconvenience is now so predictable that some businesses at the end of Key West's famed Duval Street stock sandbags just inside their front doors, ready anytime."

"Before writing the plan, the counties reviewed regional sea level data and projected a rise of 9 to 24 inches in the next 50 years."

"The rate's doubled. It would be disingenuous and sloppy and irresponsible not to respond to it," Monroe County Administrator Roman Gastesi, who oversees the Keys."

Looks like they are the Canary in the Florida coal mine. Not unexpected. And they may STILL be underestimating the rate if the linear model doesn't hold up (which is VERY likely). They may need to consider moving back to higher ground and leaving the keys to nature.
uknow

United States

#2 Jul 6, 2013
Lol 30 years ago I read the same thing from another Chicken Little. The streets flood when it rains because KW is a big rock with no place for the water to go. Once the sun comes out the water dries up.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

#3 Jul 6, 2013
Hey, I know: water never dries up!

Since: Apr 10

Milwaukee, WI USA

#4 Jul 6, 2013
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
"Seasonal tidal flooding that was once a rare inconvenience is now so predictable that some businesses at the end of Key West's famed Duval Street stock sandbags just inside their front doors, ready anytime."
It's most likely always been that predictable.
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
"Before writing the plan, the counties reviewed regional sea level data and projected a rise of 9 to 24 inches in the next 50 years."
The rate accoridng to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is a steady 2.25 mm/yr which comes out to around 4 and a half inches in fifty years. 9-25 inches is bunk.
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
"The rate's doubled. It would be disingenuous and sloppy and irresponsible not to respond to it," Monroe County Administrator Roman Gastesi, who oversees the Keys."
It hasn't doubled. There is no eveidence anywhere that the rate of sea level is accelerating yet alone doubled.
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
Looks like they are the Canary in the Florida coal mine.
Looks like bullshit to me.
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
Not unexpected.
Hoped for by you guys is more like it.
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
And they may STILL be underestimating the rate if the linear model doesn't hold up (which is VERY likely).
The PSMSL record is 100 years long. It shows no accleration.
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
They may need to consider moving back to higher ground and leaving the keys to nature.
They should consider firing their advisors.
gcaveman1

Louin, MS

#5 Jul 6, 2013
A slick attempt at lying, Steve. But we know you.

PSMSL is a tide gauge record only. You can't go by that. There are other things that can make SL appear to change.

PSMSL was established in 1933. You're off by 20 years, or 25% of its life.

The FAQ section of the PSMSL has this quote: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested 18-59 cm sea level rise by 2100 with an additional 10-20 cm on the upper limit associated with rapid dynamical changes in ice flow of the ice sheets [Meehl et al., 2007]. This range reflects different emission scenarios as well as uncertainties in the climate models and is the subject of ongoing research and debate.

And this one: "Tide gauge records from around the world show that on average global sea level has been rising over the past few hundred years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) concluded that global sea level had risen during the 20th century by approximately 1.7 0.5 mm/yr, INCREASING to over 3.1 0.7 mm/year in the 1990s. The 1993-2003 value was derived from satellite observations, but also has been confirmed by tide gauge measurements."

You're so easy, Steve.

Since: Apr 10

Milwaukee, WI USA

#6 Jul 6, 2013
gcaveman1 wrote:
PSMSL is a tide gauge record only. You can't go by that.
Why not?
gcaveman1 wrote:
There are other things that can make SL appear to change.
Appear or actually change? In any case, it should show up on the tide gauge record.
gcaveman1 wrote:
PSMSL was established in 1933.
Before the global warming scare right?
gcaveman1 wrote:
You're off by 20 years, or 25% of its life.
I have no idea what you are trying to say.
gcaveman1 wrote:
The FAQ section of the PSMSL has this quote: The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested 18-59 cm sea level rise by 2100 with an additional 10-20 cm on the upper limit associated with rapid dynamical changes in ice flow of the ice sheets [Meehl et al., 2007].
Probably an accurate quote, doesn't make the subject matter true though.
gcaveman1 wrote:
This range reflects different emission scenarios as well as uncertainties in the climate models and is the subject of ongoing research and debate.
No shit.
gcaveman1 wrote:
And this one: "Tide gauge records from around the world show that on average global sea level has been rising over the past few hundred years.
Indeed it has.
gcaveman1 wrote:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) concluded that global sea level had risen during the 20th century by approximately 1.7 0.5 mm/yr, INCREASING to over 3.1 0.7 mm/year in the 1990s.
Not according to the data that I've downloaded.
gcaveman1 wrote:
The 1993-2003 value was derived from satellite observations,
The satellite record has been fudged, gun decked, pencil whipped and drylabbed to an unbelievable degree.
gcaveman1 wrote:
but also has been confirmed by tide gauge measurements.
By who? Church & White? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha?
LessHypeMoreFact

Toronto, Canada

#7 Jul 6, 2013
Steve Case wrote:
<quoted text>
Why not?
Because it is sparse (only on shorelines so it misses the deep ocean) and heavily affected by dynamic problems with tidal changes , friction of moving tides with the ocean bottom,'sloshing' waves from rebound on other coastal features, and continental rebound.

Even those who develop MSL from tidal guages use the satellite record as a 'ground truth' to establish the validity of their estimates.

If you had ANY understanding of science, you wouldn't have to post so many 'dumb grunting' responses to valid points.

Since: Apr 10

Milwaukee, WI USA

#8 Jul 8, 2013
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
Because it is sparse (only on shorelines so it misses the deep ocean)
The only places that count are shorelines. Who cares if there's a great big mound of water somewhere in the Pacific?
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
and heavily affected by dynamic problems with tidal changes, friction of moving tides with the ocean bottom,'sloshing' waves from rebound on other coastal features, and continental rebound.
That's why they call them tide gauges.
LessHypeMoreFact wrote:
Even those who develop MSL from tidal guages use the satellite record as a 'ground truth' to establish the validity of their estimates.
And the satellites supposedly use tide gauges as a calibration point. Here's what they say.
We have restricted the ~100 available gauges to a set of 64 near real-time stations that span the majority of both the T/P and Jason missions, and will therefore provide a relatively consistent calibration for both
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/calibrat...
I will have to find out which 64 tide gauges those are. I can imaginge that they've been "carefully" selected so as not to skew the calibratlion system one way or another.

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