20-Year-Old Report Successfully Predi...

20-Year-Old Report Successfully Predicted Warming: Scientists

Posted in the Holland Forum


Holland, MI

#1 Dec 14, 2012
Loooong before Al Gore jumped on board...

Time has proven that even 22 years ago climate scientists understood the dynamics behind global warming well enough to accurately predict warming, says an analysis that compares predictions in 1990 with 20 years of temperature records.
After an adjustment to account for natural fluctuations, the predictions and the observed increases matched up, the current research found.
The predictions in question come from the first climate assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990. The IPCC is an internationally accepted scientific authority on climate change, drawing on the expertise of thousands of scientists, so its reports carry special weight. The most recent assessment report came out in 2007.
The accuracy of the 1990 predictions is notable because scientists, 22 years ago, relied on much more simplistic computer models than those now used to simulate the future, said one of the researchers behind the current analysis, Dáithí Stone, now a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He worked on the analysis while at the University of Cape Town and University of Oxford.
What's more, two decades ago, scientists could not have anticipated a number of potentially climate-altering events. These included the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, which spewed sunlight-blocking particles into the atmosphere, as well as the collapse of industry in the Soviet Union or the economic growth of China, Stone and David Frame, of Victoria University Wellington in New Zealand, write in work published online today (Dec. 9) in the journal Nature Climate Change.
But 22 years ago, scientists understood one crucial factor:
"The prediction basically depended on how much carbon dioxide was already in the atmosphere, and that has been what's important," Stone said.[The Reality of Climate Change: 10 Myths Busted]
What matters is the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution; short-term changes in emissions have relatively little effect on overall warming, Frame and Stone write.
Other climate scientists have come to the same conclusion; one recent paper warned significant emissions cuts must happen soon to limit warming to a manageable level.
The 1990 report offered a best estimate of an increase of 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) by 2030, which at the halfway point in 2010, translates to warming of 1 degree F (0.55 degrees C).
Stone and Frame compared this expected increase to two sets of temperature records for 1990 through 2010, which showed increases of 0.63 degrees F (0.35 degrees C) and 0.7 degrees F (0.39 degrees C), respectively.
The 1990 prediction did require an adjustment, since it did not take into account natural variability — which includes the chaotic nature of weather as well as longer-term natural patterns, such as the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
When Frame and Stone took natural variability into account, they found that the observed warming was consistent with the IPCC's best estimate for warming.


Byron Center, MI

#2 Dec 14, 2012
Hey bonds77, does algore think our CO2 emissions are also drifting to Mars causing the warming there too? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

We all know how stupid the scientists are at National Geograpic Society don't we? Well here is some information that seems to be getting ignored. Try reading some other scientific data from the NGS instead of YAHOO. lol, yahoo of all souces for God's sake. Maybe Capt. Kangaroo was one of the contributors to the Yahoo source. Or Bert and Ernie.


Holland, MI

#3 Dec 14, 2012
By Wynne Parry, LiveScience Contributor | LiveScience.com

Byron Center, MI

#4 Dec 14, 2012
What's your point? There are no global warming articles in your link.

Salt Lake City, UT

#5 Dec 15, 2012

Your link takes us to a stay about one man science panel. The article indicates that this one man panel hypothesis is controversial. This article is also over 5 years old. The global warming phenonmenon is very dynamic at this stage ad I would think you should be able to support your side with stronger materal than this outdated and little supported proposition.

Since: Aug 09

Location hidden

#6 Dec 16, 2012
Allen wrote:
Your link takes us to a stay about one man science panel. The article indicates that this one man panel hypothesis is controversial. This article is also over 5 years old. The global warming phenonmenon is very dynamic at this stage ad I would think you should be able to support your side with stronger materal than this outdated and little supported proposition.
you mean like using people who LIED about their side of global warming/climate control???

ok - i get ya.

Byron Center, MI

#7 Dec 16, 2012
Allen, my link takes you to a source that was investigated and found credible by the National Geograpic Society.

So believe algore (who also is one man science panel who, by the way, is not a scientist)which is another inconvenient truth or believe the NGS, your choice.

Since: Aug 09

Location hidden

#8 Dec 16, 2012
Algore - "It definitely is, and it's a relatively new one. People think about geothermal energy - when they think about it at all - in terms of the hot water bubbling up in some places, but two kilometers or so down in most places there are these incredibly hot rocks,'cause the interior of the earth is extremely hot, several million degrees, and the crust of the earth is hot"

The temperature at the surface of the Sun is around 6,000 degrees Celsius, while at the center, where nuclear fusion is going on bigtime, things get up over 10 million degrees.

Holland, MI

#9 Dec 16, 2012
Remember when a certain guy said the earth wasn't flat? Boy, did he get into trouble.

That type of ancient thinking is just why we get into the trouble we do.

I heard that thunder is also just God bowling.

Since: Aug 09

Location hidden

#10 Dec 17, 2012
You're equating Algore with someone who said the earth isn't flat?

So just below the earth's surface its almost as warm as the core of the sun?

Now this is getting good.... keep digging Bonds.... keep digging...

Holland, MI

#11 Dec 17, 2012
Denying it is happening is on par. I'm sure your wife is a descendant of Adam's rib, too.

Since: Aug 09

Location hidden

#12 Dec 17, 2012
Supporting Algore.... hahahahahahahaahhaha. That's the best I've heard in a long time.. thanks Bonds.

Of course now we're on to "SQUIRELL" for Bonds.... shouldn't be surprising.

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