#41617 Nov 6, 2012
Princeton Election Consortium
Presidential prediction 2012 (Election Eve final)
The topline listed just below the title of this website is not our prediction, but the automatically-generated snapshot. It will fluctuate as the last few polls trickle in. The last 3 updates are at 8:00am, 10:00am, and noon. Then we freeze it.
I make two electoral predictions.
ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 332 EV, Mitt Romney 206 EV.
The mode is the single most frequent value on the histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a chance of being exactly correct.
ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 309 EV, Romney 229 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.34%.
This is the automatically-generated snapshot for November 5th 8:00pm. This prediction is almost guaranteed to be off, since 309 EV is not a common combination.
#41618 Nov 6, 2012
You sound like you're concerned about the Democratic Party turnout.
No need to resort to illegal activities as you suggest.
Everyones on to that trick and it will not work again...even though it didn't work then either.
Barack Obama 2012. Yeah Baby...
#41619 Nov 6, 2012
How many Supreme Court Justices will Obama add to the court in his next term; 1, 2, 3?
To soon to ask?
#41620 Nov 6, 2012
Yoo Hoo Wingnuts! More cheating, tax dodging, and un-American activities from your side--
HARRY REID WAS RIGHT!
“Using a tax shelter called a CRUT (charitable remainder unitrust) that was held by the Church of Latter Day Saints (Mormons), Mitt Romney was able to pay zero taxes (legally) every single year from 1996 to 2009. Why did he stop in 2009? Because he would make public his 2010 tax return, that is why.”
Ta Ta Teabaggin Puta di Hijos!
Peace and Blessings
#41621 Nov 6, 2012
Any one thinking of voting for Romney should remember the immortal words of President George Dubya Bush, "There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."
#41622 Nov 6, 2012
Romney Avoids Taxes via Loophole Cutting Mormon Donations
1997, Congress cracked down on a popular tax shelter that allowed rich people to take advantage of the exempt status of charities without actually giving away much money.
Individuals who had already set up these vehicles were allowed to keep them. That included Mitt Romney, then the chief executive officer of Bain Capital, who had just established such an arrangement in June 1996.
The charitable remainder unitrust, as it is known, is one of several strategies Romney has adopted over his career to reduce his tax bill. While Romney’s tax avoidance is legal and common among high-net-worth individuals, it has become an issue in the campaign. President Barack Obama attacked him in their second debate for paying “lower tax rates than somebody who makes a lot less.”
In this instance, Romney used the tax-exempt status of a charity -- the Mormon Church, according to a 2007 filing -- to defer taxes for more than 15 years. At the same time he is benefiting, the trust will probably leave the church with less than what current law requires, according to tax returns obtained by Bloomberg this month through a Freedom of Information Act request.
In general, charities don’t owe capital gains taxes when they sell assets for a profit. Trusts like Romney’s permit funders to benefit from that tax-free treatment, said Jonathan Blattmachr, a trusts and estates lawyer who set up hundreds of such vehicles in the 1990s.
The main benefit from a charitable remainder trust is the renting from your favorite charity of its exemption from taxation,” Blattmachr said. Despite the name, giving a gift or getting a charitable deduction “is just a throwaway,” he said.“I used to structure them so the value dedicated to charity was as close to zero as possible without being zero.”
When individuals fund a charitable remainder unitrust, or “CRUT,” they defer capital gains taxes on any profit from the sale of the assets, and receive a small upfront charitable deduction and a stream of yearly cash payments. Like an individual retirement account, the trust allows money to grow tax deferred, while like an annuity it also pays Romney a steady income. After the funder’s death, the trust’s remaining assets go to a designated charity.
Folks you cant make this shit up!
#41623 Nov 6, 2012
All the polls say Obama has it wrapped up, right?
You've been assuring us all for months, weeks, days and now hour by hour that Obama's reelection is "INEVITABLE" and "A FOREGONE CONCLUSION".
If all the polls say it's a done deal, there's obviously no need for Democrats to get out to vote, right, danny BOY.
The polls, BOY. The POLLS say it's his.
#41624 Nov 6, 2012
The polling locations recently opened, so yes, it's "to soon" to ask.
But 'zero' is a possibility.
#41625 Nov 6, 2012
One day away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America.
Our children don't have a future!!
You spent it you lying POS Kenyan born gay muslime dope smoking dog eater!!
If the most crucial presidential election of our lifetime could be defined, it would be called
‘The Free Stuff Election’.
There are some 1 million Ohioans out there with a free Obama cellphone.
Imagine the ‘Vote App’ text messages coming through on their Obama phones, and that’s just one state.
The omnipresent Obama team have worked the Free Stuff Crowd up to fever pitch as witnessed in the Ohio woman’s YouTube screed that Obama is not only giving out free cell phones but lots of other free stuff’s coming down the pike.
Who really knew that liberty and freedom could be bought with a cell phone?
Obama knew and has been working almost four years to bring all takers into his ‘grassroots’ tent.
Impossible to fathom how the one-man, U.S. wrecking ball known as
Barack Hussein Obama,
after four years of the most destructive policies on record, could still attract support from 48% of voters nationwide, while they are saying Mitt Romney can count on 46%
#41626 Nov 6, 2012
#41627 Nov 6, 2012
The Race to 270
The Senate map shows Obama set to win 303 electoral votes. North Carolina is a tie on the basis of two PPP polls. However, a poll from SurveyUSA showing Romney ahead by 5 points fell just outside the 1-week window and thus doesn't count. Even though PPP is located in North Carolina and presumably knows the territory well, my personal guess is that Romney will take North Carolina and the final score will be Obama 303 to Romney 235. That leaves Obama some margin for error. He could lose Virginia and be at 290. He could lose Virginia and Ohio and be at 272 and still win if he hangs onto Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. For Romney, it is looking tougher. He has to win Florida, which most pollsters say he will (and this is not even taking the chaos there into account) as well as Virginia and Ohio and one more state. It's possible, but it is a tall order.
#41628 Nov 6, 2012
Democrats Poised to Hold the Senate
Our Senate map shows the Democrats with 51 seats, the Republicans with 45, and 4 ties. One of the ties is Maine. No one doubts that Angus King will win, but the only issue is whether he is a secret Democrat or a secret Republican. Most people think he will caucus with the Democrats, giving them 52 seats. North Dakota is tied, but it is such a red state that even with Heidi Heitkamp running a very strong campaign, she is probably going to go down. The other two ties, Montana and Wisconsin, are really too close to call. Our best guess is that the Democrats will get 52-54 seats in the new Senate. If the Democrats get 52 seats and Paul Ryan is elected Vice President, Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock are not going to be real popular in the Republican Party tomorrow, since they will have cost the Republicans the majority. But maybe Tammy Baldwin will win in Wisconsin and save them from being tarred and
#41629 Nov 6, 2012
You're linking to 'news' that's managed to avoid becoming an item for over a week? Now, THAT'S fresh!
"The word is out that he [Romney] hasn't paid any taxes in ten years", said Harry Reid from the safety of the Senate floor where he is immune from libel. Now THAT'S evidence to take to court, isn't it?
And you align yourself with Harry Reid, do you? "HARRY REID WAS RIGHT!" "cheating, tax dodging, and un-American activities" So much for YOUR ethical character.
"Mitt Romney was able to pay zero taxes (legally)" Congress legislates. Your complaint seems to be with them.
You bragged that you know a few languages. Apparently Spanish isn't one of them. Your Spanish is more embarrassing than your French!
You must have meant "Puta de Hijos!" while looking in the mirror and insulting your mother.
Now slither back to your Fat Man and Little Boy forum,'Mr' Swish.
#41630 Nov 6, 2012
Well, we know that sarcasm is beyond you.
#41631 Nov 6, 2012
How do we know you're a Democrat, you ask.
#41632 Nov 6, 2012
OBAMA 2012 !!!!!!!!!
1. "The Affordable Care Act is saving my daughter's life."
2. "Obama is for the vets. He helped us wind down in Iraq, he's improved mental health policy with VA benefits."
3. "Obama stuck his neck out for us, the auto industry. He wasn't going to let it just die, and I'm driving in this morning because of that, because of him."
4. "Osama bin Laden is dead, and General Motors is alive."
Joe Biden, Delaware
5. "Supreme Court Supreme Court Supreme Court."
Bill Clinton, New York
7. "He cares for the 100 percent."
8. "When Obama came into office, he successfully renewed our country's place in the community of nations, making cooperation in tackling the world's challenges possible."
Willis, North Carolina
9. "The actions he has taken with respect to protecting us from terrorism have been very, very solid."
Colin Powell, Virginia
10. "I was really very grateful to him for standing up for those kids who are having a really rough time out there because of their orientation."
Jane Lynch, California
11. "For me, President Obama is our best choice because he has a vision of the United States as a place where we are all in this together."
Bruce Springsteen, New Jersey
12. "He has a real plan for rescuing the economy that passes the 'math' test."
13. "Having someone in office who understands how powerful our voice can be is very important."
Jay Z, New York
14. "I am voting for Barack Obama and Joe Biden because I can trust them to care for the middle class and restore the American dream."
15. "The first measure he signed into law after becoming president was the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act -- so a female high school counselor or physical education teacher can fight for equal pay for equal work."
Connie Britton, California
16. "I believe in the America he wants for my grandchildren."
17. "We need four more years of repair, of helping the middle class achieve a sustainable economy."
James Taylor, North Carolina
18. "I've watched him fight for our country, stand by the middle class, the working class, the military, the education of our children, universal health care, women, the environment, and matters of national and domestic security."
19. "The gifted 12-year-old I taught, whose parents were deported and left her here with her grandmother, will be allowed to stay and finish her education. She's been in the U.S. since age one."
Jamie, North Carolina
20. "I want our president to place scientific evidence and risk management above electoral politics."
Michael Bloomberg, New York
21. "I have four children who are under 26 and able to stay on my health care plan. That's been huge."
22. "He's fighting to defend and better Social Security and Medicare -- because millions of Latino seniors rely on them."
Cristina Saralegui, Florida
23. "Thanks to the President's efforts to keep student loan rates low, I can expect to save nearly $1000 as I work to repay my student loans. And I don't have too many of those, thanks to the Federal Pell Grant program."
24. "It's been wonderful to have President Obama as a champion for access to health care for all women in this country."
Cecile Richards, New York
25. "Re-electing Barack Obama would lead to a stronger economic recovery than would be the case were Mitt Romney to win on November 6th."
Jared Bernstein, Washington, D.C.
#41633 Nov 6, 2012
Granted, but lately he just appears even more erratic and incoherent than usual. Not unlike, again, a program with some flawed code. Seems that he's just given up and gone straight bigotry with recent posts so at least the illusion of simple disagreement has evaporated.
#41634 Nov 6, 2012
Sick of Republicans who are clueless?
Tired of Democrats selling you out?
There is an alternative!
That alternative is the Peace and Freedom Party.
We fight for the things all working people need:
free education, from
pre-school through university;
an end to U.S. intervention throughout the world;
free health care for all, such as enjoyed by workers in every other industrialized nation in the world;
full employment at union wages,
with generous paid vacation and other benefits.
Workers, both documented and undocumented, have the right to organize, safe working conditions, and paid sick leave.
We can pay for these things if the rich are taxed at rates they can well afford.
President and Vice President: Roseanne Barr and Cindy Sheehan
#41635 Nov 6, 2012
gee, that sounds like obummer
#41636 Nov 6, 2012
Oh, he's damaged goods alright..
I asserted in a previous post that he may have a metal plate in his head from an accident or something..
That might explain his irrational thought processing ......
His total lack of empathy for others tends to indicate a sort of socio-pathic condition but
But what's funny I don't have any pity or sympathy for him either like I would for a normal human being.
But he's just a scum sucking low life crustacian something like a crawdad
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