Posted in the Hanover Forum
#41363 Nov 5, 2012
Why Conservatives and Pundits Are Petrified of Math Wiz Nate Silver
What Silver does is actually fairly simple and many of the most prominent of his detractors seem disturbingly (and hilariously) incapable of figuring it out.
One issue that people seem to refuse to believe is that if Nate Silver’s famous model — a model that mostly just averages and weighs publicly available polls — forecast a likely Romney win, Silver would be writing, every day, about why Romney looked likely to win.
He is not working backwards from a conclusion, as pundits who write “why [...] will win” stories do. Before the election began, he made a series of assumptions, based on past elections, about how to weigh and interpret polls (and economic and historical data) and built a model that has been spitting out forecasts wholly without his interference ever since.
(Also a bunch of the dumber conservatives seem to think that Silver is himself conducting polls. Which he is not.)
LMAO! Stupid wingnuts.
#41364 Nov 5, 2012
LOL! More Freudian projection by the rollout troll!
The brainwashed rightwing drones will post anything to try and lie/cheat to make a point!
Keep RUNNING from the FACTS!
Obama admits he’s a failure, but it’s cool because, y’know
Courtesy of Nicholas Ballasy, here’s the President of the United States lying about his record again:
Putting aside the question of all these successes he claims he’s had, here’s the best part:
“Some of the businesses we encourage will fail.” Yeah, and sometimes the Washington Generals will lose.
Pay attention, now, because this is important:
A plant closes that Romney is somehow connected to:
Obama wastes billions of taxpayer dollars on “green energy” boondoggles and learns nothing from it:
As the great David Burge puts it:
“Somehow I’m supposed to be more concerned with how Mitt Romney spends his money than how Barack Obama spends mine.”
obummer, a four year communist failure
#41365 Nov 5, 2012
#41366 Nov 5, 2012
Dan the Man
Desperation is a sad thing, very fun to watch as the lemmings post anything to try and lie/cheat to deny reality!
If you engage a liberal in conversation, be prepared for a series of vituperative cheap shots, half-truths and ad hominem attacks.
When confronted with inconvenient facts, most liberals either change the subject or resort to shouting.
BTW - you really should listen to the speech.
He did not say what you think he said.
#41367 Nov 5, 2012
Dan the Man
Desperation is a sad thing, very fun to watch as the lemmings post anything to try and lie/cheat to deny reality!
T'was the night before elections,
And all thru' the town,
Tempers were flaring
Emotions ran up and down.
I, in my bathrobe
With a cat in my lap,
Had shut off the TV,
tired of political crap.
When all of a sudden,
There arose such a noise,
I peered out my window,
Saw Obama and his boys!
They had come for my wallet,
They wanted my pay
To hand out to others
Who had not worked a day!
He snatched up my money,
And quick as a wink,
Jumped back on his bandwagon
As I gagged from the stink.
He then rallied his henchmen
Who were pulling his cart.
I could tell they were out
To tear my country apart!
'On Fannie, on Freddie,
On Biden and Ayers!
On Acorn, on Pelosi'
He screamed at the pairs!
They took off for his cause,
And as they flew out of sight,
I heard him laugh at a nation
Who wouldn't stand up and fight!
So I leave you to think on this one final note...
IF YOU DON'T WANT SOCIALISM GET OUT AND VOTE !!!!
I'm Barack Hussein Obama and I approve this message.
#41368 Nov 5, 2012
Are Indies Coming Back to Obama?
A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, perhaps because of how he has handled the federal response to Hurricane Sandy.
Meanwhile the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage.
Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama's best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier.
Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them.
#41369 Nov 5, 2012
Agreed, danny BOY.
Your quoting NATE SILVER, a BLOGGER, of the NY TIMES is "sad desperation", BOY.
You'll "post anything to try and lie/cheat to deny reality!"
Thanks for dancing like a puppet, BOY!
#41370 Nov 5, 2012
Experts agree that those people who watch FOX news are low income,low self esteem, below average IQ, and their minds are locked into the fact that only FOX reports the untold truth on just about anything.
It doesnt matter if FOX is one of the most unreliable news channels out there. Well ,at least for their fan base that thinks FOX reports the truth 100% of the time. Most people just flick these FOX fans off of their shoulders like a fly that has landed on their shirt.
FOX has a big fan base and the rest of us can plainly see that FOX is their main connection to the news world.They 'tell it like it is' and their fans will just keep on watching them as kids watch cartoons on a Saturday morning. They are a different breed, and 80% of FOX news watchers are really under educated. We wouldnt want it any other way.
#41371 Nov 5, 2012
Silver was right on 49 of 50 states in 2008. He was also correct predicting every Senate race. Discounting his predictions just because you dislike the place he writes for is just ludicrous denial. The man does his job far better than than most.
#41372 Nov 5, 2012
Oh, there there, danny BOY.
Feeling afraid and insecure, are you BOY?
If obsessively quoting poll after poll offers you some modicum of imaginary comfort before the reality of actual elections punches you in the face, you go right ahead and post them, BOY.
Polls are like your blankie, aren't they.
We've all witnessed the security a blankie to the cheek while sucking a thumb gives to a child. Suck away, BOY.
Post some MORE meaningless polls if it makes you feel better.
#41373 Nov 5, 2012
For the benefit of wingnut dumbasses who don't know who Nate Silver is...
Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.
In 2007, writing under the pseudonym "Poblano", Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com . By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.
The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.
In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.
In 2010, Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times. The newly renamed blog, FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus, first appeared in The Times on August 25, 2010. In 2012, FiveThirtyEight won a Webby Award as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences.
Asserting that Silver is merely a blogger reveals a stunning ignorance of what's going on in political analysis and statistics today.
It's the inevitable embarrassing stupidity of a mindless rightwing who get's all his information from the rightwing propaganda machine.
#41374 Nov 5, 2012
I love it when the rightwing jackasses prove my point.
Matthew Dowd told ABC News that every time "you feel a losing campaign, these three things happen":
"The first thing happens is, don't believe -- the public polls are wrong. That's the first sign of a campaign that's about to lose.
The second thing, we're going to change the nature of the electorate, and you're not seeing it reflected in the polls.
And the third thing is, the only poll that counts is Election Day.
When you hear those things, you know you're about to lose."
The Tedtard mindlessly and relentlessly parrots his admission of defeat, "BAAAWWWK, the only poll that counts is Election Day, BAAAWWWK!"
#41375 Nov 5, 2012
The Republican argument for "small government" fell apart last week when Sandy hit. It's clear that the States cannot afford to rebuild all that was lost. We need the federal government to help with that. Ask people who need FEMA to help rebuild their homes about "small government".
Even high profile Republicans like Christie realize their "small Read More... government" mantra isn't working. He knows that he needs FEMA to re-build NJ. I have all the respect in the world for Christie for putting his state and the people in it above politics and cheap political rhetoric.
Mr. "A Noun, a verb, and 9/11" Rudy isn't President. I remember him running for President in 2008 and not making it very far. His remarks are hurting Romney and the Republicans more than they are helping them. Their base is going to vote for them anyway and that was just red meat for their base. Independents want the truth and don't like to see the President criticized when he is helping Americans.
#41377 Nov 5, 2012
Sean Hannity has been very nice about the Presidents response to the storm, he just said yesterday " The Kenyan born socialist redistributer in chief has done a decent job with hurricane Sandy, which was cause by Obama's homosexual agenda."
LMAO..........And you wonder how this guy makes millions a year to spew his BS.. LMAO!
#41378 Nov 5, 2012
They are PREDICTIONS.
danny BOY slobbers desperately over PREDICTIONS as if they are ELECTIONS. Ask Harry Truman and Scott Walker about PREDICTIONS.
danny BOY is pee-in-his-pants fearful that his socialist wet dream is falling apart so his obsessive poll-posting attitude today is "Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die."
#41379 Nov 5, 2012
Well, from what we've heard from the governors, they're working well with FEMA," said Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser to Mitt Romney's campaign. "There's a good working relationship between the state and the federal government."
Yes, the very same FEMA candidate Romney said he would defund. "Instead of thinking, in the federal budget, what we should cut, we should ask the opposite question, what Read More... should we keep?" opined candidate Romney at the debate.
"Including disaster relief, though?" debate moderator John King asked Romney.
You bet. Romney favors privatizing disaster response.
Candidate Romney said that he would "absolutely" shut down FEMA and transfer its responsibilities to the states. "If you can go even further, and send it back to the private sector, that's even better."
And you wonder why Mutt will lose the election.
Too bad the FOX news watchers are intelligent enough to figure it out by now.Guess not
#41380 Nov 5, 2012
I love it when the leftwing jackasses prove my point.
danny BOY, mindlessly posting poll after poll the day before an election is a pathetic effort to convince only YOURself that Obama's reelection is "INEVITABLE" and "A FOREGONE CONCLUSION," BOY.
That you are clueless to the truth of your own statement "BAAAWWWK, the only poll that counts is Election Day, BAAAWWWK!" hints at the depth of your understandable denial.
Go change your peed-in-pants, BOY, then poll ON!
#41381 Nov 5, 2012
BAAAWWWK, the only poll that counts is Election Day, BAAAWWWK!
#41382 Nov 5, 2012
obummer has been passing out trillions in cash over the last four years, how hard could it be to toss a few billion to the donut boy Christi?
#41384 Nov 5, 2012
See, danny BOY, this Obama supporter KNOWS how desperate things are for Obama's reelection and is DOing something about it.
"Obama Supporter Who Bragged About Voting 5 Times is in Charge of Voter Registration in NC Precinct
Turner, an election official and Obama supporter openly bragged on Facebook about voting five times for Obama. "
"The comment, by Jim Turner of Pine Knoll Shores, N.C., read:
I have voted once in Beaufort, once in Henderson, twice in Emerald Isle and will vote in my precinct in PKS, I will do whatever it takes to save our country from the world envisioned by Mitt and his fear mongering followers. I do not want my granddaughter to have to re-fight the battles won by women 40 years ago or to make less than my grandson for performing the same work he does. This election is not about taxing the wealthy. It is about the American spirit and caring for our fellow man. Let’s continue to move forward, not slip in the dark past."
Yikes, danny BOY, his desperation makes YOURS look serene.
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