Who do you support for Governor in Pe...

Since: Oct 12

Location hidden

#40773 Nov 1, 2012
Dave Rogers wrote:
Why The NY Times Poll Is Wrong
Whether deliberately or not, the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac Poll is wrong! It shows Obama carrying Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. In reality, Romney is leading in all three states and will carry them all.
Here’s the deal. The Times is weighting the raw survey data to reflect the ratio of Democrats to Republicans who voted in 2008. True, if we get the same massive turnout among minorities and young people that propelled Obama to victory in 2008, he will win this election and carry these states. But we won’t. All the polling shows that the electorate is now much more Republican and that GOP voters are much more motivated to turn out than their Democratic counterparts.
If we weight the Times results for the average turnout of the past four elections: 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010, we find Romney winning all three states. Republican pollster (the best of them all) John McLaughlin and I used exit polls from the past four elections to figure out how many Democrats and Republicans actually voted and then we averaged them together. Here are the real numbers:
FLORIDA
NY Times results: Obama +1
Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +7
Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1
Times overstates Dem vote by 8 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
OHIO
NY Times results: Obama +5
Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8
Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Dems +2
Times overstates Dem vote by 6 points
Correct poll result: Romney +1
VIRGINIA
NY Times results: Obama +2
Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8
Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1
Times overstates Dem vote by 9 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
And even these results don’t tell the full story. The Gallup Poll finds that the 2012 election will actually have more Republicans and fewer Democrats voting than any of the past four elections. In 2008, the electorate had 12 points more Democrats and Republicans. In 2004, the electorate was evenly divided. Gallup estimates that in 2012, there will be 3 points more Republicans voting than Democrats.
So the numbers above are not reflective of Romney’s real strength. He will do even better. And add to them the fact that the undecided vote goes against the incumbent, and you are looking at a real landslide.
Dick Morris
We all make silly statements. We all make poor predictions. Indeed most Washington pundits are right as often as they are wrong. One Washington prognosticator, however, stands above the rest.

Step up, Dick Morris.

Morris was at one time a top political operative. From his guiding of now Congressman Jerry Nadler's student government campaign to his work for Bill Clinton, Morris was a winner. He was running another Bill Clinton campaign, in 1996, when he found himself embroiled in a sex scandal.

That imbroglio marked a turning point. Morris was no longer to work for Clinton. Instead, he reinvented himself as a writer and television pundit. It is this work that we celebrate here today.

Morris' ability to make statements and predictions that are often so, so wrong is exceptional. He has been called the "worst pundit in America". The more cynical among us might argue that the word "America" should be replaced with "world". Indeed, to recall all of Morris's spectacular failures would require more space than Santa is allotted for his Christmas list.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08...

Since: Oct 12

Location hidden

#40774 Nov 1, 2012
Remember the narrative; "President Obama can't work with Republicans", well Chris Christie would disagree.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/nyregion/in...

Clear evidence that the Republicans in congress are the problem!
Mr Crumpets

Baltimore, MD

#40775 Nov 1, 2012
Dave Rogers wrote:
Why The NY Times Poll Is Wrong
Whether deliberately or not, the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac Poll is wrong! It shows Obama carrying Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. In reality, Romney is leading in all three states and will carry them all.
Here’s the deal. The Times is weighting the raw survey data to reflect the ratio of Democrats to Republicans who voted in 2008. True, if we get the same massive turnout among minorities and young people that propelled Obama to victory in 2008, he will win this election and carry these states. But we won’t. All the polling shows that the electorate is now much more Republican and that GOP voters are much more motivated to turn out than their Democratic counterparts.
If we weight the Times results for the average turnout of the past four elections: 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010, we find Romney winning all three states. Republican pollster (the best of them all) John McLaughlin and I used exit polls from the past four elections to figure out how many Democrats and Republicans actually voted and then we averaged them together. Here are the real numbers:
FLORIDA
NY Times results: Obama +1
Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +7
Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1
Times overstates Dem vote by 8 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
OHIO
NY Times results: Obama +5
Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8
Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Dems +2
Times overstates Dem vote by 6 points
Correct poll result: Romney +1
VIRGINIA
NY Times results: Obama +2
Dem/Rep ratio in Times poll: Dems +8
Average ratio Dem/Rep past four elections: Reps +1
Times overstates Dem vote by 9 points
Correct poll result: Romney +7
And even these results don’t tell the full story. The Gallup Poll finds that the 2012 election will actually have more Republicans and fewer Democrats voting than any of the past four elections. In 2008, the electorate had 12 points more Democrats and Republicans. In 2004, the electorate was evenly divided. Gallup estimates that in 2012, there will be 3 points more Republicans voting than Democrats.
So the numbers above are not reflective of Romney’s real strength. He will do even better. And add to them the fact that the undecided vote goes against the incumbent, and you are looking at a real landslide.
Dick Morris
OK then;
If Dick Morris shit his pants
Then
If Dick Morris picked his nose
Then
If Dick Morris ate the booger
Then
If Dick Morris would make some stew
Then
If Dick Morris sold his mother as a sex slave to
Somali pirates

Then Romney would win for sure...

Hahahahaaa

Dick Morris...getting a bit desparate are we now..
Dick Morris woww now that's journalism Fox News Style

So, where's the Glenn Beck numbers?
Dan the Man

Newville, PA

#40776 Nov 1, 2012
Dick Morris is the worst ever political pundit.

He is seriously the dumbest person working in politics today. After McCain picked Palin he said, "But it was McCain’s gutsy selection of Palin that opened the door to victory." Every single one of his predictions in 2008 was wrong.

Every.

Single.

One.

So today he's out there predicting that, not only will Romney win, but he'll win in a landslide.

----------

Reasonable voters saw that the voice of hope and optimism and positivism was Romney while the president was only a nitpicking, quarrelsome, negative figure. The contrast does not work in Obama’s favor.

His erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year).

Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes.

And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.

In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.

Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?

Once everyone discovers that the emperor has no clothes (or that Obama has no argument after the negative ads stopped working), the vote shift could be of historic proportions.

----------

Never mind that Michigan has 15 electoral votes and not 16.

And that Minnesota has 10 and not 16.

And that Colorado has 9 and not 10.

And Nevada has 6 and not 9.

Dick Morris is a dumbass of epic proportions. But the wingnuts on Topix quote him all the time to support their irrational beliefs.

If you listen to stupid people, you will believe and say stupid things.
Dan the Man

Newville, PA

#40777 Nov 1, 2012
Latest swing state polls:

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47%(We Ask America)

Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45%(Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45%(Quinnipiac)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45%(Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46%(University of Cincinnati)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45%(Reuters/Ipsos)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47%(Quinnipiac)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47%(Gravis)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49%(We Ask America)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47%(Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45%(Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Romney 45%, Obama 44%(University of Iowa)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47%(We Ask America)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45%(Detroit News)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 42%(EPIC-MRA)

North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49%(Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44%(Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47%(Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44%(Roanoke)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46%(Reuters/Ipsos)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46%(Public Policy Polling)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43%(Marquette Law)

Not seeing 270 for Romney anywhere. LOL!
Dan the Man

Newville, PA

#40778 Nov 1, 2012
Americans Still Give Obama Better Odds to Win Election

54% of Americans think Obama will win; 34% predict Romney

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158444/americans-g...
gshoes

Pittsburgh, PA

#40779 Nov 1, 2012
Obamas ahead.four more years. Go cry tal
Taliban teabaggers

Since: Sep 12

Seattle, WA

#40780 Nov 1, 2012
Dove Ragers wrote:
Dove Ragers? LMAO

I bet it took you 3 weeks to come up with that one.
ROMNEY 2012

Erie, PA

#40781 Nov 1, 2012
I stopped trying to have a literate conversation with any of the leftist in this thread weeks ago. Your savior is losing ground and rapidly, we can pick and chose one of the 7 polls in all states to give us more as well. You can all just simmer down til Nov 7th, your boy is going to dominate Pa. so you should be happy with that. You wont have much to talk about except how is Obama going to pack his bags, paper or plastic? He is out. Face it, it is plain to see. Thank you for at least making it a challange but the tables are flipping and planned perfect timing.
Dan the Man

Shippensburg, PA

#40782 Nov 1, 2012
ROMNEY 2012 wrote:
I stopped trying to have a literate conversation with any of the leftist in this thread weeks ago. Your savior is losing ground and rapidly, we can pick and chose one of the 7 polls in all states to give us more as well. You can all just simmer down til Nov 7th, your boy is going to dominate Pa. so you should be happy with that. You wont have much to talk about except how is Obama going to pack his bags, paper or plastic? He is out. Face it, it is plain to see. Thank you for at least making it a challange but the tables are flipping and planned perfect timing.
You say "stopped trying to have a literate conversation" as if having a literate conversation is something you're capable of.

Your gibberish post proves it's not. LOL!

BTW - it's always a bad idea to call a black man "boy."
Dan the Man

Shippensburg, PA

#40783 Nov 1, 2012
All the crowing from the Romney crowd is pure bluff - hollow bluster designed to project a false momentum.

----------

"Both sides are nervous, but Republicans are MORE nervous. They don't find it particularly encouraging that Mitt Romney was in Florida yesterday and will be in Virginia today - two states the campaign would love to have put away by now. Is Romney's 'expand-the-map' drive... a sign of confidence, or a Hail Mary frenzy because of trepidation about Ohio?

The correct answer: It's mainly an effort to project confidence at a time when Republicans fear a slow-motion reversal of fortune."

"Top Republicans are already hinting that if Romney loses, his people will blame the storm for stalling his momentum. But D.C. GOPers acknowledge that having some of the nation's top auto executives call you out, when you're the business guy born in Michigan, ain't helpful."

- Politico
Dan the Man

Shippensburg, PA

#40784 Nov 1, 2012
More swing state polls. Not looking good for Romney. What's his path to 270 again. LOL!

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 47%(Rasmussen)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47%(Newsmax/Zogby)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 44%(NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 45%(Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 46%(SurveyUSA)

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47%(NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44%(Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46%(Public Policy Polling)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47%(Newsmax/Zogby)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46%(NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49%(Rasmussen)
Ted

Meyersdale, PA

#40785 Nov 1, 2012
Dan the Man wrote:
Latest swing state polls:
Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47%(We Ask America)
Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45%(Reuters/Ipsos)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45%(Quinnipiac)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45%(Public Policy Polling)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46%(University of Cincinnati)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45%(Reuters/Ipsos)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47%(Quinnipiac)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47%(Gravis)
Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49%(We Ask America)
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47%(Reuters/Ipsos)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45%(Public Policy Polling)
Iowa: Romney 45%, Obama 44%(University of Iowa)
Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47%(We Ask America)
Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45%(Detroit News)
Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 42%(EPIC-MRA)
North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49%(Public Policy Polling)
Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44%(Franklin and Marshall)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47%(Quinnipiac)
Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44%(Roanoke)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46%(Reuters/Ipsos)
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46%(Public Policy Polling)
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43%(Marquette Law)
Not seeing 270 for Romney anywhere. LOL!
LOL!

danny BOY, you do realize, don't you, that it's the ELECTION next Tuesday that determines the winner and not the polls you like to quote.

You've endlessly claimed Obama's reelection is "INEVITABLE" so why the torrent of poll posting from you? It seems you're trying to convince YOURSELF that Obama can't lose.

Uh oh.

Of course endlessly posting 'polling' results NOW may be your last opportunity for chest thumping before joining the predictable chorus whining and screaming that the Republicans 'stole the election.'

LOL
Ted

Meyersdale, PA

#40786 Nov 1, 2012
Dan the Man wrote:
More swing state polls. Not looking good for Romney. What's his path to 270 again. LOL!
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 47%(Rasmussen)
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47%(Newsmax/Zogby)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 44%(NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 45%(Public Policy Polling)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 46%(SurveyUSA)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47%(NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44%(Newsmax/Zogby)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46%(Public Policy Polling)
Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47%(Newsmax/Zogby)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46%(NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49%(Rasmussen)
Yikes, danny BOY, relax.

They are only POLLS, not the actual election.

Think of them as point spreads that Vegas puts on every sporting event.

How often are the point spreads and Vegas odds wrong, BOY?

Oh, yeah, often enough to make you a nervous little BOY.

LOL!
Ted

Meyersdale, PA

#40787 Nov 1, 2012
Dan the Man wrote:
Americans Still Give Obama Better Odds to Win Election
54% of Americans think Obama will win; 34% predict Romney
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158444/americans-g...
!LOL!

Can you find a more meaningless poll to post, danny BOY?:
"Americans Still Give Obama Better Odds to Win Election"

Americans give THEMSELVES better odds to win every time they go to Las Vegas or buy a lottery ticket.

How's that work out for most of them?

You appear foolishly uneducated and understandably desperate, BOY, in posting such polls.

LOL!
Mitt vs Mutt

West Mifflin, PA

#40788 Nov 1, 2012
15 GOP leaders met on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2009. They met in a WA restaurant and pledged to block all attempts made by the President to recover our economy. And they did it at a time when their help was most needed, when we were in economic freefall, going into a second Great Depression.

Their goal was to blame the fallout on the President, when the 2012 election came around.

McConnell made sure that plan was followed, by filibustering at 3 time the pace ever seen in American History. He openly bragged of his vow to block the President. They blocked ALL Jobs Bills, including the Veterans Jobs Bill a few weeks ago. The President's AJA was slated to make 2 million jobs, but GOP has voted NO three times, and refused to bring it up for debate.

Despite that 5.2 million jobs have been created over 31 months. Manaufacturing is back. Auto is back on top. Housing is up. Economists are predicting a robust comeback now. Meanwhile, Europe is floundering with unemployment at 25%.

The President has done an AMAZING job, with ZERO help from GOP.

"GRIDLOCK" DOESN'T COME CLOSE TO DESCRIBING GOP CONGRESSIONAL BEHAVIOR, OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS.
Mitt vs Mutt

West Mifflin, PA

#40789 Nov 1, 2012
Portman: "If we don't win Ohio, it's tough to see us winning the election nationally"

FAIRVIEW PARK, OH -- Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, the chairman of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's campaign in the Buckeye State, said Friday that it would be tough for Romney to win the election without carrying Ohio.

"I believe the Obama campaign probably has a pretty effective grassroots infrastructure, but I dont think you can compete with volunteers who really have their heart in it and are fired up for all the right reasons," he said.
.
Mitt vs Mutt

West Mifflin, PA

#40790 Nov 1, 2012
The zombies are starting to wake up! lol

No matter how you slice & dice it, the math is NOT on their side!

Is it any wonder they fought tooth & nail for voter suppression and the end to early voting?

If you can't beat em... cheat em!
Dan the Man

Shippensburg, PA

#40791 Nov 1, 2012
LOL! The wingnuts would prefer to trust the rightwing propaganda machine and their feelings to the hard data.

Sorry to rain on your parade, wingnuts. LOL!

----------

Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls

Mr. Obama continues to hold the lead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, the states that represent his path of least resistance toward winning the Electoral College. This was particularly apparent on Wednesday, a day when there were a remarkable number of polls, 27, released in the battleground states.

There were 12 polls published on Wednesday among Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Mr. Obama held the lead in 11 of the 12 surveys; the exception was a survey by the University of Iowa, which had Mr. Obama down by about one point there, but also had a very small sample size (about 300 likely voters). On average, Mr. Obama led in the polls of these states by 3.9 percentage points.
...
Conversely, Mr. Romney has few chances to win unless the state polls are systematically wrong.

I don’t mean for this to sound dismissive; the polling error could quite easily be correlated across the different states, and the national polls are one reason to be suspicious of the state polls.

But we’re at the point now where Mr. Obama may be a modest favorite even if the national polls are right. Two weeks ago, when Mr. Obama appeared to trail Mr. Romney by a point or so in the national polls, that would not have been the case.
Mitt vs Mutt

West Mifflin, PA

#40792 Nov 1, 2012
Mr. Obama continues to hold the lead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, the states that represent his path of least resistance toward winning the Electoral College.

YEAHHHHHH BABYYY!!
THE CLEAR CHOICE
OBAMAQ 2012 !!!!!

Tell me when this thread is updated:

Subscribe Now Add to my Tracker

Add your comments below

Characters left: 4000

Please note by submitting this form you acknowledge that you have read the Terms of Service and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms. Be polite. Inappropriate posts may be removed by the moderator. Send us your feedback.

Hanover Discussions

Title Updated Last By Comments
Snyder's of Hanover (Aug '09) 5 hr long rod 5,782
Snyder lance May 25 Torts 3
Review: Dean's Auto Plaza (Sep '13) May 7 Scott123 10
News 12-time DUI repeater gets up to 7 years in prison (Sep '08) Apr 30 Trista Biddle 23
News Half Pint Creamery plans second ice cream shop Mar '15 Fannie Pak 2
Second eagle Mar '15 Vlossak 1
Rachel Caltrider????? Mar '15 Just looking 1
More from around the web

Hanover People Search

Addresses and phone numbers for FREE

Personal Finance

Mortgages [ See current mortgage rates ]