Mutt vs Mitt

West Mifflin, PA

#40158 Oct 25, 2012
The national polls--with the exception of Gallup, which is undersampling minorities--are very close, but as always, it is the electoral college that matters. If Obama wins the states the Democrats have won in the last five elections (which seems likely) plus New Mexico (which is almost certain), he has 247 electoral votes. Throw in Ohio and he is at 265. From there, winning just one swing state bigger than New Hampshire is enough. Without Ohio, Romney has no chance. If Romney wins only his base plus Ohio, he's not home free yet, but if he wins Ohio, he is very likely to win North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida as well, and that would get him very close to 270. So in the last two weeks, there will be a lot of focus, energy, and money poured into Ohio.

The other states that will get attention are Florida and Virginia, because they are big enough to change the dynamics. The only other states likely to get much play are Colorado, Nevada (although it may be too late for Romney there), Iowa, and maybe New Hampshire. These are the big seven. The rest don't count. Sorry about that if you live in one of the other 43--although there might be an exciting Senate or House race nearby.

Looking at today's map is instructive. It shows that Obama can get to 270 electoral votes even without Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado, as long as he holds Ohio. But if he loses Ohio and gains any one of those four states, he still wins.

OBAMA 2012!
YEAHHH BABYYYYYYY!!!!
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40159 Oct 25, 2012
North Carolina, Virgina and Colorado can offset Ohio, Mitt has a shot in New Hampshire as well.

Since: Jul 12

Portland, Oregon

#40160 Oct 25, 2012
Spiro like any other tea bag relies on feelings as not one tea bag has stated how flipper gets to 270 which Spiro has and will always failed to do, huh tea bag posse clown?
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40161 Oct 25, 2012
In the polls’ early-voting results, Obama leads on average by 20 points. There are indications that the GOP has shrunk the Democratic advantage in this category significantly from 2008, but it is unclear how much. Either way, Obama’s early-voting advantage gives him a lead that Romney is only scraping away at with his Election Day voter lead. But if pollsters are finding more respondents who are claiming to have already voted than what the records show, some of this early-voter advantage is illusory.

This is why it is increasingly difficult for Romney to show an lead in the Ohio polls. But even with Obama currently enjoying a 2.1 point lead, Romney is still in great shape to win Ohio on Election Day. Here are some of the reasons for the optimism coming from
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40162 Oct 25, 2012
Romney’s strength with independents keeps growing: Last week when Obama led the Real Clear Politics average by 2.5 points, Romney led among independents by an average of 8.7 points. Romney has since increased that lead with independents to 12.3 points, which is why he’s been able to cut Obama’s overall lead even as the polls have leaned more Democratic. In 2008 Obama beat McCain with independents by eight points. It would be almost impossible for Obama to win Ohio while suffering a 20-point swing among independents.

The polls give Democrats a better turnout advantage than they had in 2008: As I explained in my last Ohio post, in 2008 Democrats beat Republicans in turnout by five points. The current polls show an average of D+6.6. A D+5 turnout in 2008 gave Obama a 4.5-point victory, while he is currently leading by only 2.1 points on an even greater D+6.6 turnout. Again, we know it should be very difficult for Democrats to match their 2008 turnout, let alone increase it.

History suggests late deciders will break against the incumbent: This is a rule that always receives some skepticism, but it’s very likely to benefit Romney at least some on Election Day. In 2004, late deciders broke against George W. Bush heavily, even though he was a wartime president. John Kerry beat Bush by 25 points among voters who decided in the last month, 28 points among voters that decided in the three days prior to Election Day, and 22 points among day-of deciders. Those voters were 20 percent of the Ohio electorate; while this year there are expected to be fewer late deciders, Obama cannot afford to lose among by those margins and still win.
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40163 Oct 25, 2012
Without Ohio, says Jim Geraghty at National Review, the Nevada-Iowa two-fer is probably the most likely way for Romney to make up the nine-electoral-vote gap. He could also do it by picking up Wisconsin, though, and with the help of local son Paul Ryan, his running mate, Romney has whittled down Obama's lead to just two or three percentage points. Obama's still favored, but he's got to defend Wisconsin or it could be the state that puts Romney over the top. Of course, if Romney can put Ohio in his corner, he's the "genuine favorite."
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40164 Oct 25, 2012
TAKE BACK THREE KEY STATES: The "3" in that plan consists of recapturing the three states that Obama won in 2008 that historically have voted Republican in presidential elections: Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia. While Indiana appears to be safe for Romney, recent polling in North Carolina indicated a competitive race, and the new numbers out Thursday in Virginia suggest the Romney campaign has a tough job ahead in the Commonwealth.

WIN FLORIDA, OHIO: The "2" in the strategy calls for regaining Florida and Ohio, which George W. Bush won in his 2004 re-election but that Obama flipped in his 2008 victory over Sen. John McCain. Again, the NBC/WSJ/Marist polls indicate that the Romney campaign will have to work hard to achieve this goal.

GRAB ONE MORE: The "1" in the Romney pathway to victory is to win just one more competitive state that Obama carried four years ago. They include Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

The Michigan variable

While Romney was born in Michigan and his father served as a popular two-term governor of the state in the 1960's, a poll released Thursday indicates turning the state "red" in November is looking more difficult. According to an EPIC/MRA survey conducted for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV, 47% of likely voters in Michigan support the president, with 37% backing Romney and a high 16% unsure. Some surveys conducted prior to the two parties' political conventions indicated a closer contest in Michigan.

The auto bailouts of General Motors and Chrysler may be a factor. They were prominently showcased during all three nights of the Democratic convention, as was Romney's opposition to Washington's intervention.

President George W. Bush began the auto bailout in 2008 but the next year Obama grabbed the keys to the program, managing and funding the rescue of GM and Chrysler, and pushing them into bankruptcy. Romney, whose business past included investment in troubled companies, opposed the bailout and pushed for a privately financed and managed restructuring of the automakers in Chapter 11.

The auto bailouts may be impacting the race in Michigan, home to the domestic auto makers, and next door in Ohio, which is also a major base for the auto industry.

Then there's Colorado and New Hampshire

Two of the other "1" states appear to be much more in play, according to new surveys. An ARG poll in Colorado indicates Obama at 49% and Romney at 47% among likely voters. And according to a WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll, 45% of likely voters in New Hampshire (where Romney owns a vacation home) back the president, with 40% supporting Romney and a high 12% unsure. The president's margins in both polls are within the sampling error.

More NH voters undecided in split race
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40165 Oct 25, 2012
So Ohio can still go either way DORK, also it is not the only way to pull enough electorals, do some research instead of pole sitting lol.

Since: Jul 12

Portland, Oregon

#40166 Oct 25, 2012
A desperate tea bag
Mutt vs Mitt

West Mifflin, PA

#40167 Oct 25, 2012
Mitt vs Mutt wrote:
North Carolina, Virgina and Colorado can offset Ohio, Mitt has a shot in New Hampshire as well.
Nope.....add up the numbers clown
OBAMA 2012 !
YEAHHHHHH BABYYYYYYYY!!
Tricky Dick

Wellsboro, PA

#40168 Oct 25, 2012
During a seance in January '09 I told "O" not to repeal the Patriot Act so he could spy on the queers in the Occupy and Tea Bag movements. If I had the Patriot Act Watergate would have be hushed up and Leotard and Buttstein would be deepthroating an Allahu Snackbar type for breakfast.
Tricky Dick

Wellsboro, PA

#40169 Oct 25, 2012
Well Occupy didn't exist yet, it was called the marriage equality movement.
Ernest T Grubbs

West Mifflin, PA

#40170 Oct 25, 2012
Mitt vs Mutt wrote:
So Ohio can still go either way DORK, also it is not the only way to pull enough electorals, do some research instead of pole sitting lol.
keep sucking on Mitts meat whistle i heard youre going to have a farewell party in your mouth on NOv 6 and everyone is cumming LOL
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40171 Oct 25, 2012
Okay mr ohio or bust,Right now with favored states and leaners it is 237 for the O and 206 for Romney. I will give you Ohio for 18, Iowa for 6 and Nevada for 6. We will take and it is possible Colorado for 9, Wisconson for 10, 13 from Va, 4 for New Hampshire and all of florida at 29 puts is 271 ...... OUCH it is real huh. Dont question me, and suck that bobby.
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40172 Oct 25, 2012
Actually re did my math Romney is next President at 270 /267 .... Romney Ryan 2012 YAAA BAAABBBBY
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40173 Oct 25, 2012
Not to mention a landslide in the popular vote.
Mutt vs Mitt

Erie, PA

#40174 Oct 25, 2012
OMG your right, that sucked to say. Come on Bobby lets go find a rock to climb under til Nov.7th.
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40175 Oct 25, 2012
Doh! looks like these guys were right AGAIN:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/electoral-col...
Mitt vs Mutt

Erie, PA

#40176 Oct 25, 2012
You sure do take a long time to respond when you have been challanged and wronged. Comes back to you saying thr Rom can not win without Ohio. If he loses it will be by more the the 21 point gap 270-267 + 18 for Ohio incase math is not your strong point.
Romney 2012

Erie, PA

#40177 Oct 25, 2012
Suck it up !!! I am Mitt Romney and I approve this message.

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