Don't be quick to count him out. The voter gets their info from where? The MSM should not be in anyone's corner, they should be Ringside scoring it fairly and accurately but whose corner are they in?

If it's in the MSM the average voter believes what?

Close, but obama wins. It'll come down to electoral votes and women voters. New York and California alone will give him 86 electoral votes leaving only 184 to win.