UC predicts Romney win with 320+ Elec...

UC predicts Romney win with 320+ Electorial votes

Posted in the Dyersburg Forum

very interesting

Martin, TN

#1 Oct 8, 2012
Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry and their highly-accurate Electoral College prediction model. Bickers and Berry, using their metrics, are able to retroactively predict EVERY PRESIDENTIAL WIN SINCE 1980.

Their 2012 model made headlines two months ago because, despite polling, it found that Republican presidential candidate Romney would win 320 Electoral Votes, stealing the White House away from President Barack Obama. Now, an updated version of their study has come to the same conclusion but it intensifies the numbers behind a predicted Romney win.


(Their charts & info's are posted on Cambridge Uni's website. Link found at bottom)

United States

#2 Oct 8, 2012
Good to know. Why do all the news channels use every poll? Can you call them and let them know that this is the only poll they should be using? Its the only accurate one per statitics.

Since: Apr 12

Location hidden

#3 Oct 8, 2012
Many of the polls quoted on the news are old ones (anything over two weeks old is not reliable except in comparing to new results).

I do believe that given the current economic situation most independents will move to Romney. A new poll finds that independents in the battleground states have swung toward Romney by a 16% margin. This is huge and unless something changes could be the key to the election.

If Romney holds his own or performs as he did in the first debate he will probably win. I'm sure Obama will come out swinging with all kinds of negative attacks (Romney is hiding his taxes, tax cuts for the rich, etc.) but none of that excuses Obama's inability to defend his record...
very interesting

Martin, TN

#4 Oct 8, 2012
The problem as I understand it, is they are using outdated statistics. They base the percentages on last elections and it's not going to be that type of turnout this election.

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