Tom Reed spends early in race with Martha Robertson
#1 Jul 16, 2014
In an article in the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle and elsewhere at Gannett, including the Ithaca Journal, Brian Tumulty states as a fact that
"However, the Reed-Robertson race is among the most competitive House contests in the nation."
That is a campaign claim from the Robertson campaign, not a verified or verifiable fact, as there is no polling data. It is even dubious as a claim (like Robertson's mythical claim that Republican operatives hacked her website). Look at the neutral realclearpolitics.com website at the house races. While they don't have the district classified as "safe Republican," they have it as leans Republican, not in gray as too close to call (the competitive districts). The reason for that is evident, if you check party registration figures, the district is R+ about 3 to four points, which political analysts know makes it a "near safe" district for Reed, particularly in a year when the Democrats have virtually conceded that they will not control or likely gain seats in the House --- both because this is a mid-term election in which the president's party loses seats and because it is shaping up to be a Republican year. Outside of Tompkins, Robertson's record has made her an out of tune dud and there just aren't enough votes in Tompkins to change things. Nate Shinegawa, a much more personable candidate, two years ago did not make a dent in that R+ margin even as Obama swept NY at the head of the ticket, with the usual high turnout for presidential elections. All these indicia point to no surprises in November and what is not a competitive election. Are there any facts or even trends that support Robertson's nonsensical claim that she is "highly competitive"? Even a large percentage of the funds she has reported raising come from Ithaca and Tompkins, and often the same few donors over and over, you can get that information on line. Robertson can't run on her highly liberal record outside Tompkins so has resorted to character attacks on Reed, a mark of a desperate candidate.
So, let's not try to make this a hot news story about a competitive race when it really isn't or make statements as facts that are debatable. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts.
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