Housing reports don't always tell the whole story

“Not a single person walked through the door for six months”

I can't fault the Orlando Regional Realtor Association for seizing on a flicker of hope in this browbeaten housing market. via The Orlando Sentinel

[Juan]

Hi Beth,

You are right about the accidental landlords as a Real Estate agent in central florida i sold some properties to investors that as the market turned they also had to be accidental landlords. This town was full of investors wannabes.

Now it surprised me the Frias story, as a seasoned professional he did not take Condo Conversion 101.

That been that buying a condo conversion might be one of the worst property investments that someone could make.

Do you know how the condo prices come bout, well most of the time the developers themselves or thru friends make the first two purchases (cash) then you got comps. to go along for the other buyers. Yeah that was one of the biggest rackets we had here in Central Florida the last three years, now the Conversion that are left are just been unloaded many of them giving the prospective buyers " CASH BACK INCENTIVES" (highly illegal, since its a fraudulent kickback, that the buyer's lender is unaware of).

Anyway i agree with Mr. Moreira last month numbers are a bit of light at the end of the long tunnel.

Many of those accidental landlords, since they were not prepared for that roled have been weed it out by something called "FORECLOSURE", or SHORT SALE; as many of them grew tired of taking cash out of their pocket to cover - mortgages association fees and property taxes.

HERE'S TO A GR8 2009 AND BEYOND FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET!!!!!

[RealEstateOptimi st]

Beth,
Realtors are by their very nature optimists. Many would argue that the press is pessimistic. Let's face it negative headlines are attention grabbers. The truth is that the number of new sales contracts was up in March compared to February which was up compared to January. The total number of contracts is way up from the beginning of the year as well. The inventory of existing homes has remained fairly stable since last fall. Prices have come down around 10% year over year. New home inventories have come down quite significantly since the end of 2006. There are plenty of rentals out there that will come back on the market as conditions improve. The key to that statement is that "conditions improve". There is no "bad" real estate market. Conditions just happen to favor buyers right now. There are a lot of choices, prices have come down a bit and interest rates are at historic lows. I think many people have forgotten that you buy a home to live in and it should be viewed as a long term investment. Buying a home is not a get rich quick scheme.
David W. Welch, RealEstateOptimist.com

[downtown joe]

One any positives about the real estate market should be shared.

Two Orlando has a long way to go before we are out of the woods.

a. Hate to say the worst is yet to come, expect Orlando's foreclosure rate to peak in 1st Qtr 2009 when people who can't pay their taxes finally walk away.

b. Peak inventory levels, autions and investment opportunity will come in 2 & 3rd qtr of 2009. But with a downtown in tourism fewer people will be willing to buy.

c. Orlando inventory drops below 20,000 units in February 2010 and will show increased progress although interest rates will then be around 6.25 - 7%

d. Best Orlando markets Lake Nona area, SW Orange county

e. Best unique opportunity with a catch. Downtown condos bottom 4 th Q 2009 and 1st 2010. Just months before the new arena and arts center are planned to open. Catch - Condo association fees expected to rise fast!

f. My last prediction - Next big office tower (over 25 stories) breaks ground in 2011.

Save up and prepare for what is next! And that is opportunity

[Jack]

g. Guess again

[UF ALUM]

Realtors don't always tell the whole story. To them, it's always a great time to buy because if you don't, they can't make those PT Crusier payments.

Real estate sales has got to be the most corrupt industry that flys under the radar to most people. It is severely outdated and fails to keep up with changing technology.

In addition, realtors tend to have no education beyond a 63 hour go-at-your-own-pace course that prepares them for the sales exam which anyone with an IQ above 80 could pass... but passing this exam gives them the confidence they need to dispens euneducated advice to unsuspecting buyers and sellers.

[NAR SUCKS]

All I can say is don't believe anything that comes out from the NAR... These are the same crooks that were saying it's a great time to buy when prices were inflated...

The only time that it's a great time to buy is when owning a home is less expensive than renting it. We have a long way to go before that's the case.

Bottom line is that we still have over 2 years of inventory and by looking at the numbers in the last week alone, that figure will be going higher next month... Until we have a 6 month supply on the market, prices are going no where but down.

And to add to the mess, good luck for a first time homebuyer getting a loan in this market... And if first time home buyers can't buy, then the market will stay in the doldrums for a long time to come

[Mike]

How many stupid people are there. Like Pete Frias in this article.

My complaint now is that many of these people want to get bailed out. I also think the government has made it to easy to walk away.

[Frank]

Housing prices are going to continue to fall another 50% from where they are today. The median income is a little over $46k/yr. For over 100 years, the median house price was 3 times median income. Houses will fall to $138k. In fact, they will fall further because all markets overcorrect.

Once house prices do bottom, there will be no rush to buy them. The bottom of this market will be like the bottoms of every other one. Houses will bottom and flatline for years. This flatline effect will be even longer than most because of the severe problems in credit and the major overvaluation of housing due to speculation.

Don't buy anything until at least 2010 or you will regret it. At least half of the remaining price drops should occur by then. The bottom will probably start around 2012-2014 and last until 2020.

After 2020 there will be a slow, modest recovery as a fair market is reestablished. About 5 to 10 years after that, the next bull market will come. Investors won't come back to the housing market until 2025. It doesn't make sense to invest in an asset with huge tax and carrying costs until the next bull market is underway.

The only people who will come out ahead in this housing market cycle are:
1. The people who sold between 2002 and 2005 and did not buy after that.
2. Young people who will want to buy their first house in 2012 to 2020.

The people screwed over by this cycle are:
1. People who bought between 2002 and 2008 and did not sell before 2006.
2. People who just missed buying a house in the 1990s and had to wait out the high prices by renting for a decade.
3. Anyone who pays taxes since they are paying to cover the losses of rich bankers with 10 million dollar yachts and 50 million dollar houses.
4. Anyone with a salary or savings in US dollars because inflation ran about 10% annually since 2000 and is now running at about 16%. That's why the Federal Reserve keeps the M3 money supply secret now.

It's going to continue being a rough ride. Those who are patient and continue to rent will be rewarded by paying $160k in cash for a house that sold before for $800k. Those people will save over a decade of their income over the course of their lives. This means they will be able to retire 10 years earlier without a loss of quality of life.