bartow election night results prediction

bartow election night results prediction

Posted in the Cartersville Forum

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greatsantini

Cartersville, GA

#1 Nov 5, 2012
Amendment 1: 51.5% yes 48.5% no (in Bartow) 53-47 passes state-wide

Amendment 2: toss-up, slight edge to Yes

BOE 4: Kittle 60% Gray 40%

HD16: Kelly 58% Crawford 42%

HD15: Battles 68% Benham 32%

Magistrate: Mosely 66.5% Nally 33.5%

CD-11: Gingrey 70% Thompson 30%

PSC: Eaton 67% Oppenheimer(D) 31% Ploeger 2%(L)

PSC: Wise 82 % Staples (Libertarian) 18%

Presidential: Romney 69% Obama 28% Johnson/3rd party/write-in 3%

What say you? I'm not biased... just observant.
greatsantini

Cartersville, GA

#2 Nov 5, 2012
GA state-wide 51.4 Romney 46.2 Obama the rest to 3rd party candidates. Nearly identical to the 2008 model with a few more votes being weighed to 3rd parties and a slight drop-off for Obama and also a .3-4% drop for Republicans or Conservatives voting for 3rd party since Georgia is essentially called for Romney this cycle. Obama didn't even set up a ground game here. That's another reason he will drop a point combined with enthusiasm drop in the suburbs with independents. In the 2008 model that would bring him down to about 45% but demographics have shifted in states like Georgia to favor Democrats. Early voting trends maintain a strong minority which is pro Democrat.

PSC 49.7% Eaton 46.9% Oppenheimer Ploeger 3.3%. This scenario would result in a run-off that results in conservative - this case Republican - victory 95% of the time. A Republican run-off will always win in GA where the Democratic vote is a large % black that has been enthused for Obama's re-election bid and will not come out for a run off. There is a strong anti-incumbent sentiment. Eaton will win the runoff but with slightly less than 60%. 59-41 in his favor. Wise will win 65%-35% outright.

You heard it here first. Don't listen to the wing-nuts on either side. The only bias I may have is I do vote libertarian.
greatsantini

Cartersville, GA

#3 Nov 5, 2012
National

GOP will hate me but it's the truth
48.9% Romney - 49.0% Obama 2.1 % 3rd Party
Obama- Ohio, Iowa establishes the win projection election night

Romney saves face and takes fla, colorado, and virginia is left to close to call tuesday night 48.5 each in va. with the rest going 3rd party.

Senate 52-46-1 (D-R-I)

House +4 D from states like Cali and NE swing districts and districts that have more hispanic voters now but will lose more seats in the rest of the country where Republican redistricting took place. Sandy could make it no-gain with lower turn-out in NE.
Howell W

Cartersville, GA

#4 Nov 5, 2012
Obama another four years so all you white racists get used to it. A vote for Romney is a vote for racism. Obama saved the country. Praise Obama.
greatsantini

Cartersville, GA

#5 Nov 5, 2012
Congress - Barrow 50.3% Anderson 49.7%
greatsantini

Cartersville, GA

#6 Nov 5, 2012
Im starting a blog about our election predictions and will post it here later.
BobbyW

Norcross, GA

#7 Nov 5, 2012
Wanda Gray will win 60/40. Nobody knows who the other guys is.
greatsantini

Cartersville, GA

#8 Nov 5, 2012
Incorrect Bobby. Wanda Gray qualified as an independent. Most people in the General Election are voting a Republican ticket. While she might have the better reputation and incumbent on her side she does not have the party name and in Georgia it works that the incumbent is second on the ballot to the party which controls the Governorship. I have inside word from a GOP member that the only thing they'd be worried about is a weak Presidential election turn-out and it being a local election. Even in those predictions it's hard to imagine the Republican getting less than 55%. You also have to look at the numbers. Wanda Gray has no organized campaign vs. Fred Kittle who does. Its a benefit to give her 40% or above based on good things I have heard about her reputation. More people would qualify in races like this as Independent if there were not a typical 35% ceiling in both blue and red districts.
nightwriter

Cartersville, GA

#9 Nov 5, 2012
you're either a Democrat or don't know Bartow county dude......

Christian Coomer won as a freshman and was greeted with a whopping 79% of the vote v. a Dem in 2010. All the Dems did with that whipping was give him validation.

So.. 20% to 32%... thats more drastic than it seems when you have nothing only 20 to build off of. 12% is like 60% increase in the next door county district.

Granted there's any kind of Obama "election bump" and Granted that the 15th district had strong red Pine Log cut off there could be an increase. 75-25 Battles is more likely. Benham is not taken very seriously.

Paul Nally is not taken very seriously. 75-25 again.

PSC is going to be almost 80-20 conservative in Bartow There will be no runoff Eaton will get 51% the Dem maybe 46% if he did any campaigning and is lucky and the rest to the liberal (gay) libertaria running.

Precincts like Center will be running at 85-15 in favor of the GOP. It's in the 15th district and is larger now and is not any more liberal from 2010 returns. It sinks any Democrat hopes of getting even 30% of the vote.

Romney wins County 72-26 GA 55-43
jo jo whites

United States

#10 Nov 5, 2012
Is he duh Mayer? BBBBRRRAAPPP!!!
nightwriter

Cartersville, GA

#11 Nov 5, 2012
The Barrow is Better idea is overstated. The idea that Romney can be called desperate and flip floppng for votes I dont know what you call John Barrow the career politician. That is Republican drawn to win. 55-45. Once again you speak as a Democrat apologist or closet cheerleader.
BobbyW

Norcross, GA

#12 Nov 5, 2012
Wanda is loved by the people in Euharlee. That is all that matters. She goes to all the school functions and talks with everybody. Fred advertises on WBHF and hangs out the GOP. This will be a cakewalk for Wanda. The people are not that dumb in Euharlee to just vote for the R.
BobbyW

Norcross, GA

#13 Nov 5, 2012
The local GOP is uesless. Only a few go to the meetings.
point to make

Cartersville, GA

#14 Nov 5, 2012
Mr. Nally has made some cross connection with Judge Moseley's primary opposition as well as those who understand the impotance of being a nation respecting rule of law in the Tea Party.

There is a Reason Tom has had to leave up those big signs. He has had to campaign for this one. Cross-over votes say Nally can make this a competitive race if the Obama voters also give him a most ironic boost.
Neighbor

Mcdonough, GA

#15 Nov 5, 2012
I'm confident that Rosemary Greene wins the DA race handily.
Aggie

Cartersville, GA

#16 Nov 5, 2012
Howell W wrote:
Obama another four years so all you white racists get used to it. A vote for Romney is a vote for racism. Obama saved the country. Praise Obama.
It is hard to believe that such ignorance exists.
greatsantini

Cartersville, GA

#17 Nov 5, 2012
A local Republican has it on good faith that Eaton is one of the most respected members of the PSC and will pick up 75% here in Bartow and that the libertarian didnt do well enough in debates to get any Republican votes and actually said liberal things that could split Democratic votes. He said there will be no run-off. I may have been a bit off on that one.

My prediction for Wise he said is about right, anything over 83% would be a stretch against the single libertarian opponent. My polls are not biased in favor of the Democrats. They're based on weighing the statewide 59% white early vote turnout vs. the almost 61% in 2008 plus imagining my predictin of a few more young libertarians in the electerate than 2008. That's why I say Romney 51.5 not 55% and Obama will also lose a % to different things with Johnson taking half percent of his youth vote.Southern youth break strong for Paul and then Johnson.

Also I looked at the new 11th US House district for Georgia. I say Gingrey will now win 67-33 with the Democrat picking up votes in south Cobb. In Bartow Gingrey will win 72-28 as I look at past election results on the SOS website.

No one polls Bartow. It's hard to make projections but GS can. Bank on something in this ballpark.

I stand with my 55-60% vote total guess for Kittle

I was advised that the Republicans are not taking HD16 for granted at all and will be calling conservative polk dem. voters tomorrow to appeal to them on election day. It's down to the wire. I revise this one to 52-48 in favor of Kelly.
BobbyW

Norcross, GA

#18 Nov 5, 2012
60/40 Wanda wins. She is extremely popular in Euharlee and looked at as a hero.
republican

Cartersville, GA

#19 Nov 5, 2012
point to make wrote:
Mr. Nally has made some cross connection with Judge Moseley's primary opposition as well as those who understand the impotance of being a nation respecting rule of law in the Tea Party.
There is a Reason Tom has had to leave up those big signs. He has had to campaign for this one. Cross-over votes say Nally can make this a competitive race if the Obama voters also give him a most ironic boost.
Mr. Nalley is the most whacked out fool in Bartow County. Him, meth king Dylan Thomas, and freeloading fruitcake Howell Wade are the spokesmen for the democrat party in Bartow. What a laugh.
sayin

Cartersville, GA

#21 Nov 5, 2012
Some of you really press the line of legal slander with what you want to spin about Mr.Dylan and the Wade family. Learn to respect people who see things differently than you do. I hate the Republicans here. Such a vile crew. Hear there meetings are shrinking to GOBs and extremist homeschool moms.

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