Growing economy provides hope for recovery

The economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, but will the recovery hold? "We're already seeing increased holiday hiring for temporary positions," said Sarah Cullins, president and CEO of Finesse Personnel Associates, an employment staffing agency in Rancho Cucamonga and Riverside.

[Get real]

This article is so full of bull$hite! What's wrong with you IVDB? Mainstream media spoon-feeding the sheeple and making them think everything is ok. You are terrible.

Here is the truth. The consumer spending IS govenment spending. The $8k tax credit and cash 4 clunkers programs count as consumer spending but come from govenment tax dollars. OUR tax dollars, pulling demand forward. Lets see what 4th Quarter numbers look like, after Obama blew our tax money for generations on one measly quarter of spending.

There is no job growth, there is no uptick in the economy.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009,(that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.

Looks good, right?

Hmmmm.... or is it?

Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.

....

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second.

Ok, from this we can compute a few things.

3.5 - 1.66 -(7.9 * 30%)=-0.53%

Now let's adjust for inventories:

The change in real private inventories added 0.94 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.42 percentage points from the second-quarter change.

-0.53%- 0.94%=-1.47%.

Ok, that's bad but not catastrophic and is an actual improvement compared to the second quarter. But....

Current-dollar personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $19.1 billion (0.6 percent) in the second.

Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $119.1 billion in the second.

Eeeeehhh... those are both going the wrong way. Taxes up, income down. And...

Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent.

That's worse. A lot worse. Disposable personal income decreased in nominal terms q/o/q by 5.9% while in real terms (inflation adjusted) it decreased q/o/q by 7.2%! That is an enormous swing in purchasing power and not in the right direction!

Personal outlays increased $148.2 billion (5.8 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $8.2 billion (0.3 percent) in the second. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $364.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with $533.1 billion in the second.

The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the second.

Nor do the export and import numbers look right. Port of Long Beach and LA anyone? Those numbers also don't add up - swings of 20-25% in one quarter? Not reflected in container volumes and freight loadings. Yet it has to be - how do you get something in or out of here without it going through a port?

Government looks right, both federal and state/local. The "Obama will cut defense and war spending" folks have to be bashing themselves with a hammer - there's no evidence for that in the data, now three quarters into his administration. If you're anti-war and "bring the troops home", you may want to re-think whether voting for Barry was a wise decision - he sure as hell hasn't kept that promise.(Note that I didn't think he would either but that lie sure played well in San Francisco, didn't it?)

[Get real]

Forward the big problem is the deterioration in personal income. You can't spend what you don't have without credit creation, and that's fallen off a cliff. The Fed's credit reports continue to come in with huge contractions - this should not surprise, as demanding that banks lend to people who are seeing their income shrink is into the realm of pure idiocy.

The market likes the numbers although a lot of the move - perhaps all of it - is Bucky getting thrown under the bus once again.

You can't expect the cheerleaders on CNBC to read beyond the headline numbers, and they (once again) did not disappoint in this regard. The first 20 minutes of "analysis" brought not one mention of the decease in personal income or disposable personal income, yet on a forward basis this is in fact the most important piece of information in the report.

You cannot have an economic recovery when on a q/o/q basis real disposable income is contracting at a 7.4% annual rate and worse, the spread between nominal and real income is widening, indicating that mandatory purchases such a food, energy and health care - are increasing.

[Get real]

This article is so full of bull! What's wrong with you IVDB? Mainstream media spoon-feeding the sheeple and making them think everything is ok. You are terrible.

Here is the truth. The consumer spending IS govenment spending. The $8k tax credit and cash 4 clunkers programs count as consumer spending but come from govenment tax dollars. OUR tax dollars, pulling demand forward. Lets see what 4th Quarter numbers look like, after Obama blew our tax money for generations on one measly quarter of spending.

There is no job growth, there is no uptick in the economy.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009,(that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent.

Looks good, right?

Hmmmm.... or is it?

Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.

....

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second.

Ok, from this we can compute a few things.

3.5 - 1.66 -(7.9 * 30%)=-0.53%

Now let's adjust for inventories:

The change in real private inventories added 0.94 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.42 percentage points from the second-quarter change.

-0.53%- 0.94%=-1.47%.

Ok, that's bad but not catastrophic and is an actual improvement compared to the second quarter. But....

Current-dollar personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $19.1 billion (0.6 percent) in the second.

Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $119.1 billion in the second.

Eeeeehhh... those are both going the wrong way. Taxes up, income down. And...

Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent.

That's worse. A lot worse. Disposable personal income decreased in nominal terms q/o/q by 5.9% while in real terms (inflation adjusted) it decreased q/o/q by 7.2%! That is an enormous swing in purchasing power and not in the right direction!

Personal outlays increased $148.2 billion (5.8 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $8.2 billion (0.3 percent) in the second. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $364.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with $533.1 billion in the second.

The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the second.

Nor do the export and import numbers look right. Port of Long Beach and LA anyone? Those numbers also don't add up - swings of 20-25% in one quarter? Not reflected in container volumes and freight loadings. Yet it has to be - how do you get something in or out of here without it going through a port?

Government looks right, both federal and state/local. The "Obama will cut defense and war spending" folks have to be bashing themselves with a hammer - there's no evidence for that in the data, now three quarters into his administration. If you're anti-war and "bring the troops home", you may want to re-think whether voting for Barry was a wise decision - he sure as hell hasn't kept that promise.(Note that I didn't think he would either but that lie sure played well in San Francisco, didn't it?)

[mschliebs from Cucamonga]

"The government aid - from tax credits for home buyers to rebates for auto purchases - is temporary. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, could likely weaken without it."

Pour gasoline on a plie of soggy fire wood and light it. The fire is hot and fast, burning the liquid fuel and the body and clothing as well for standing too near the inferno. What's left are soggy wood and a trip to urgent care.

[idiots]

I agree. If there is one thing that I truly despise is dishonesty, and this article is rife with it. Horrible journalism.

[JAlex]

In addition to what everyone wrote, the economy will continue to worsen especially if any of these bills pass (health care, cap and trade.) I however, believe it is Obama's plan to destroy this nation from within so we will be dependent upon the government for everything (all rescources). This will make the annoitted one the most powerful dictator of all time.

[Royal Knight]

These politicians are full of it. "Recession over" they proclaim yet the economy is doing worse.