Home-value report premature, agents say | The Columbus Dispatch

Central Ohio home values appreciated nearly 2 percent in the past year, but not in the areas that residents might expect, a national report released this week indicates.

[a little history]

Two Crashes and “Hope Rallies”
First, a little history: Most students – somewhere in their high school curriculum – vaguely register the
fact that late 1929 saw a devastating crash in the stock markets. The crash is, for many of us, directly
linked to the narrative of the Great Depression of the 1930’s. In reality, however, the link is hardly a
direct one. Business took a significant turn for the worse in 1929, and the market crash was severe (then,
as a few months ago, down about 50% from its peak). But in early 1930 the U.S. was still years away
from the massive unemployment and devastation that characterized the depression (some of which was
due to poor government policy reactions to the downturn, a fact that our modern day Fed chairman is
quite cognizant of). It was also over 27 months away from a final bottom for the stock market, which
did not occur until 1932. At its final bottom, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined 89% from
its 1929 bubble value.
As with today’s market reaction to the crash of 2008-2009, less than six months after the crash of 1929,
the Dow recovered more than 46% from its post-crash lows. A comparison of the two period is set forth
in the below table and in the graphs on the following page. Little needs to be said that the table and
graphs don’t speak to better (the yellow shaded areas being subject to the ultimate verdict of history).
Source: Market data and Westwood Capital calculations
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Comparison of Two Crashes and the Aftermath Thereof
1929-30 % Change 2007-09 % Change
Bubble High 381.17 14,164.53
Initial Drop 198.69 47.87% 6,547.04 53.78%
"Hope" Rally High 294.07 48.00% 9,580.63 46.34%
Ultimate Low 41.62 89.08%????????
Days from Initial Bottom
to "Hope" Rally High 155 171

Job pay isn't equivelant to pay for rising house costs. Take for instance wal-screwya, cashiers in 2004 started at $8.00+ an hour. 2009 they started at $7.50-$8.00 an hour.. No wage increase what so evr, if any thing a slight dip.Another example would be a cashier at 7-11 reynoldsburg in 1998 made $7.00 an hour to start, now most cashiers any where (except maybe hilliard/rich areas) start out roughly $7.30 an hour (simply because they have been forced to to meet minimum wage increase this year, not out of goodness by company owners rasing pay).

then take alook at how many jobs have been lost thousands upon thousands in Ohio alone gone. Skybus poof. Wal-screwya optical lab moved to Mexico. City Center gone all those jobs gone. Point being so many jobs lost and some moved out of country meansfewer jobs, more people meaning tougher job market (except if your a SWCS employee).

GRanted I have yet to research higher paying jobs to see if they went up or such, maybe some one else can do that, if they want. But over all I am not as optimistic as Obama and his staff off politicians are.

[ALittleEducation Please]

I totally agree. Clearly, there is zero hope of any of the jobs that have been lost in Ohio since the depression began ever coming back. This is a structural economic change and Ohio's uneducated, "hit things with a hammer" workforce is not going to do well. Furthermore, the growth in the medical area is going to wither because a mass of unemployed people without health insurance aren't going to be standing in line for $27,000 knee replacements and other surgeries. Even cancer and heart treatments are out of reach for hundred of thousands of newly unemployed people in Ohio. Real Estate agents have been blowing smoke for years, but the truth is LONG TERM ASSET DEFLATION, meaning decades, is the new reality for our economy. That particle board box in Dublin that sold for $390,000 in 2005 will be going for $220,000 in 2025. That's a harsh reality.