Come on,'hog, your smarter than this.<quoted text>
And what industry do you see stepping up? Would you mind listing them for me and how much impact they've made?
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Since: Oct 07
#62 Nov 18, 2007
“Man, 2 mo' years...Whew!”
Since: Feb 07
#63 Nov 18, 2007
Read my first sentence again. If you or anyone else wants to ride or drive around in one of these things then I don't care. None of my loved ones nor I would, though. The rest of my posts addressed crash-safety testing and standards which this vehicle couldn't possibly pass.
Every once in a while the government actually does something worthwhile. While the insurance industry is a giant monster that bears close watching at all times, it too, has its bright moments.
Oil portfolio? Not this fellow. Maybe there's some buried in some of my mutual funds but no single stocks. I wish!
#64 Nov 20, 2007
And the reason US production has not kept up or increased is because environmental kooks and liberals do anything and everything they can to prevent us from drilling our abundant sources of oil in Section 1002 of ANWAR, which was set aside by congress when ANWAR was created specifally FOR drilling. They will not let us tap our oil shale reserve. The US has nearly 2/3rds of the worlds oil shale. They will not let us drill on the outer continental shelf where one of the largest oil deposits on the planet is.
But Mexico, Cuba, and China call drill till their drowning in oil in the gulf and on the outer contiental shelf.
Did you know that China is drilling for oil closer to Florida than the US congress will allow the United States to drill for oil off of Florida?
#65 Nov 20, 2007
Replacement energy sources that are as plentiful AND that provide the same energy yield (aka energy returned on energy invested or EREI) are not readily apparant to me. Natural Gas faces the same long term challenges as oil in terms of supply and production.
Gaining energy independence while also addressing climate change will require all known alternative sources of energy AND serious conservation along with efficiency improvements. Sun, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, bio-fuels (assuming there are some advances which I think is highly likely), and yes probably nuclear and clean coal (if such a thing is truly possible).
Our current trajectory, particulary in the US, is totally unsustainable. We need serious course correction now to avoid very painful adjustments into a world with permanantly high energy costs.
Great article in WSJ on production challenges:
#66 Nov 20, 2007
Thanks for the comments Frank. I really think you're oversimplyfying the reason for the production challenge. If you look at charts showing discoveries of major "elephant" oil fields, there have been very few since the 60s. Prudoe, North Sea, Kazakastan (name I forgot), perhaps one in Saudi Arabia and now potentially one in Brazil.
The rate of discovery has declined significantly, while production and consumption has risen significantly. That can only go on so long. Oil companies have been doing tons of exploration and yet still the discoveries are not there.
Trying to create scapegoats of environmentalists or for that matter, the left trying to blame "big oil" is really not helping to understand the dimension of the challenge or the solutions. And I don't think you can ignore the environmental consequences of burning billions or trillions of barrels of oil in a very short period of time.
Personally, I'm thrilled about the Brazil discovery, because selfishly I don't want to be around when production truly starts to decline on a global basis. It ain't gonna be pretty. I hope there are more deep sea discoveries which will buy us time to more gracefully adjust to a post-carbon energy world.
#67 Nov 20, 2007
This guy nutshells what the big picture is pretty well.
Alternative energy is a pipedream.
So is plentiful oil.
#68 Nov 20, 2007
Yokel, I read the Long Emergency and just about every book published on peak oil. I don't think its accurate to say alternative energy is a pipedream. It's only a pipedream if you assume it will provide for the same standard of living as oil and support the same population levels.
I think a theoretical peak oil production level is real and could happen very soon. However, after believing the worst for a while, I think the peak will be followed by an "undulating plateau" and the eventual decline in production will be relatively orderly. That will give us time to integrate alternative sources and to change our lifestyles as needed (and lower the population).
It could cause economic disaster, but I don't think we'll be spending next Thanksgiving in a Mad Max world.
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