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Fred

Akron, OH

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#1
Sep 22, 2012
 

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ę Obama Tries To Distract Us
Why The Polls Understate Romney Vote
By Dick Morris on September 21, 2012
Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Hereís why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. Thatís because some donít have landlines or are rarely at home or donít speak English well enough to be interviewed or donít have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. Thatís why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obamaís core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply ó and unanimously ó for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just wonít focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, heís really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll ó one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.

hunky77

Twinsburg, OH

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#2
Sep 22, 2012
 

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If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama - Joe Biden 10,691(17%)

Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 50,772(81%)

Other 473(0%)

Are you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan is his VP?
More Likely 18,831(30%)

Less Likely 3,843(6%)

Doesn't change my opinion of Romney 38,828(63%)

Which party should run congress?
Republican 50,569(82%)

Democratic 10,635(17%)

0(0%)

To close the federal deficit, Congress and the President should
Raise taxes 3,666(5%)

Cut spending 15,607(25%)

Cut taxes and cut spending 40,243(65%)

Raise taxes and increase spending 1,880(3%)

Do you favor significant cuts to Medicare?
Yes, cut Medicare significantly 6,819(11%)

No, don't cut Medicare significantly 53,797(88%)

NOV 6TH WILL TELL THE TRUTH HOW AMERICA IS FEELING ABOUT THE FIRST

HALF BLACK - HALF WHITE PRESIDENTS LACK OF LEADERSHIP.

HE IS ONE PARTYING ,DOWN LOW LOVABLE ANTI-CHRIST.

BLACK PASTORS ARE TELLING THEY'RE FLOCK TO STAY HOME AND NOT VOTE AT ALL. WELL WELL JESUS IS GOD NOT ODUMMA WHO-IS INSAIN.
Che Reagan Christ

Medina, OH

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#3
Sep 22, 2012
 

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I remember this from 4 years ago. How did that turn out?

“Don't quibble Sybil!”

Since: May 09

Trailer Park, USA

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#4
Sep 22, 2012
 

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hunky77 wrote:
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama - Joe Biden 10,691(17%)
Mitt Romney - Paul Ryan 50,772(81%)
Other 473(0%)
Are you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan is his VP?
More Likely 18,831(30%)
Less Likely 3,843(6%)
Doesn't change my opinion of Romney 38,828(63%)
Which party should run congress?
Republican 50,569(82%)
Democratic 10,635(17%)
0(0%)
To close the federal deficit, Congress and the President should
Raise taxes 3,666(5%)
Cut spending 15,607(25%)
Cut taxes and cut spending 40,243(65%)
Raise taxes and increase spending 1,880(3%)
Do you favor significant cuts to Medicare?
Yes, cut Medicare significantly 6,819(11%)
No, don't cut Medicare significantly 53,797(88%)
NOV 6TH WILL TELL THE TRUTH HOW AMERICA IS FEELING ABOUT THE FIRST
HALF BLACK - HALF WHITE PRESIDENTS LACK OF LEADERSHIP.
HE IS ONE PARTYING ,DOWN LOW LOVABLE ANTI-CHRIST.
BLACK PASTORS ARE TELLING THEY'RE FLOCK TO STAY HOME AND NOT VOTE AT ALL. WELL WELL JESUS IS GOD NOT ODUMMA WHO-IS INSAIN.
I voted in the same poll as you. Makes for a sunny beginning on a dreary day. SAM the Dem/Union man, told the Marine he would never vote for Romney because he has beady eyes, and 'everyone' knows you can't trust a man with beady eyes. Warms the cockles of my heart to be reinforced about the mentality of the dem/libs.

“The One! The Only! RUKiddingme”

Since: Dec 08

Jersey, Baby!

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#5
Sep 22, 2012
 

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Right. The polls REALLY don't matter if your guy is going down in flames.

The American Public is still decent enough to see that Mittens is bad for America.

“The One! The Only! RUKiddingme”

Since: Dec 08

Jersey, Baby!

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#6
Sep 22, 2012
 

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FOUR MORE YEARS!
Mom-a-son

United States

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#7
Sep 22, 2012
 

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Awww-Sooo! You be like dat repukie bob "PULL THEIR DRESS OVER THEIR HEAD" packwood!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics...
lilTyree Herman

Akron, OH

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#8
Sep 22, 2012
 

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Mom-a-son wrote:
Awww-Sooo! You be like dat repukie bob "PULL THEIR DRESS OVER THEIR HEAD" packwood!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics...
Do You Mean Just Like This Upstanding DemonRat, Pee Wee Tyree

Nice...
anthony-weiner-representative- congress-house-of-representati ves-gym-locker-room-photos-pic tures

Bwa Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

Whatever you come up with a DemonRat will surface. They are the party of LOSERS. ru/norm(che)/peeweetyree/puke/ etc

“The One! The Only! RUKiddingme”

Since: Dec 08

Jersey, Baby!

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#9
Sep 22, 2012
 

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Romney's going down like a Starry for a twenty dollar bill.
Petty Richards Almanac

Akron, OH

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#10
Sep 25, 2012
 

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Here's proof that the polls are accurate

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-romn...

bwahahahahahahaaaaaaaa

vroom vroom

“I'm as Mad as Hell...”

Since: Mar 07

Your Neighbor & Friend

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#11
Sep 25, 2012
 

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The polls don't matter.

That's what Hitler said.

“The One! The Only! RUKiddingme”

Since: Dec 08

Jersey, Baby!

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#12
Sep 25, 2012
 

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Howard Beale Jr wrote:
The polls don't matter.
That's what Hitler said.
Shhhhh! I think Starry's half-Polish on Tuesdays.
Undercover Brother

United States

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#13
Sep 25, 2012
 

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SHE MUST BE! She always has "pregoies" on her breath!!
Undercover Brother

Akron, OH

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#14
Sep 25, 2012
 

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Undercover Brother wrote:
SHE MUST BE! She always has "pregoies" on her breath!!
Dumbass faker pee wee tyree cannot even spell. He failed spelling class in 3rd grade. Thats why Pee Wee Herman is his Hero. Also he needs da pole dancin job at da playpen. Me n da brotha's Laff our butts off at dat moron pee wee faker tyree.
Oh bamma is his daddy...
Petty Richards Almanac

Akron, OH

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#15
Sep 25, 2012
 

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RU_Kiddingme wrote:
<quoted text>
Shhhhh! I think Starry's half-Polish on Tuesdays.
Speaking of ignorant jokes, here's RU.
StarryStarry

Hudson, OH

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#16
Sep 25, 2012
 

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Petty Richards Almanac wrote:
<quoted text>
Speaking of ignorant jokes, here's RU.
That's okay. We think it's cute that RU can barely post without mentioning me. I'm always on his mind. Sigh.....I don't even have a hem, but I do have lots and lots of beads.

“The One! The Only! RUKiddingme”

Since: Dec 08

Jersey, Baby!

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#17
Sep 25, 2012
 

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StarryStarry wrote:
<quoted text>
That's okay. We think it's cute that RU can barely post without mentioning me. I'm always on his mind. Sigh.....I don't even have a hem, but I do have lots and lots of beads.
Anal beads, you disgrace.
StarryStarry

Hudson, OH

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#19
Sep 25, 2012
 
RU_Kiddingme wrote:
<quoted text>
Anal beads, you disgrace.
Anal beads come first to your mind, no? You always have a sexual connotation about every single thing. You are creepy. Blast USHER and have a lonely ball tonight with your own sweet self.
Petty Richards Almanac

Akron, OH

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#20
Sep 25, 2012
 

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RU_Kiddingme wrote:
<quoted text>
Anal beads, you disgrace.
.

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watch out, peeps, ru's estrogen script ran out and he's 32 days away from the operation.

damn those hotflashes anyway.

.

.

Damn Obamacare!

.

.

.

“The One! The Only! RUKiddingme”

Since: Dec 08

Jersey, Baby!

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#21
Sep 26, 2012
 

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StarryStarry wrote:
<quoted text>
Anal beads come first to your mind, no? You always have a sexual connotation about every single thing. You are creepy. Blast USHER and have a lonely ball tonight with your own sweet self.
Why's it funny when you suggest that I'm involved in incest or homosexuality, but when someone says something the least bit sexual to you (because you started it), it's an offense against all mankind and nature?

You chose the game, don't cry when I beat you at it.

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