Home values revisited - Business

Home values revisited - Business

There are 20 comments on the Honolulu Star-Bulletin story from Mar 8, 2009, titled Home values revisited - Business. In it, Honolulu Star-Bulletin reports that:

Should you be worried or excited about dropping home prices on Oahu? According to one Hawaii economist who is pioneering how his industry measures housing performance, it all depends on where you live.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at Honolulu Star-Bulletin.

barcelona

Davis, CA

#1 Mar 8, 2009
"When you look strictly at past sales prices, it's like looking in the rear-view mirror of a car," Murchie said. "It is scary to think that our government and the Wall Street "cleanup crew" may make decisions based on this data."

I guess he would rather have them looking out the front window - whoops, that's a crystal ball. There is no window on the future.
alice

Honolulu, HI

#2 Mar 8, 2009
very true..just windows into the soul
halawaboy

Lihue, HI

#3 Mar 8, 2009
I don't care what these self appointed analysts say, real estate here (including east oahu) will tank .Hawaii is in the 2nd inning of a 9 inning downfall! Buyers will be back when homes become affordable again, and that will be 2 to 3 years from now. First time buyers? They were left for dead in 2007 nand 2008 with subprime. Now the alt A and the Option loans come due in 2009 and 2010...... recovery? what recovery? Sell now and get more......sell later and get less.Unemployment in Hawaii will bring down home prices as more bankrupcies and foreclosures begin to happen.
True

Honolulu, HI

#4 Mar 8, 2009
Zillow is a computer and has lots of faults

and faulty information.

There are two kinds of buyers in the world.

The buyer who sees a good deal, like now

and the buyer who will never buy because there

is never a good enough deal.

Donald Trump will have the last laugh -

he says the future millionaires are coming

out of those who invest during this storm.
alice

Honolulu, HI

#5 Mar 8, 2009
True is spot-on right
Real Estate Guru

Brea, CA

#6 Mar 8, 2009
First decent article in here in awhile. He knows exactly what he is talking about. You need to get down into the street by street, house by house level to accurately determine a home's value in Hawaii. That is why you need a GOOD Realtor to help with this. Case-Shiller and Zillow can't do it for you, guys.
willie magnum

Wahiawa, HI

#7 Mar 8, 2009
Believe it, the real estate values will drop. Real estate agents need to make money and will tell you what they want to make the commission. Don't be fooled by the slick agents. They are ultimately in it for the money and have no interest in you. Been there. Seen it happen too often when the homeowner is facing eviction. so don't believe anything they have to say. Use your intuition. If you have money , then buy. Otherwise, sit on the sideline and wait till it really bottoms out. Its coming soon. With Obama in office, you'll be in for the big dive which is coming later this year.
okden

San Diego, CA

#8 Mar 8, 2009
halawaboy wrote:
I don't care what these self appointed analysts say, real estate here (including east oahu) will tank .Hawaii is in the 2nd inning of a 9 inning downfall! Buyers will be back when homes become affordable again, and that will be 2 to 3 years from now. First time buyers? They were left for dead in 2007 nand 2008 with subprime. Now the alt A and the Option loans come due in 2009 and 2010...... recovery? what recovery? Sell now and get more......sell later and get less.Unemployment in Hawaii will bring down home prices as more bankrupcies and foreclosures begin to happen.
what difference does it make anyway?

I knew that things peaked two years ago --- but I am not selling my real estate --- it is my home --- and it will be until I die

you might be surprised to learn there are quite a majority on Oahu that think like me
Robert W

Kaneohe, HI

#9 Mar 9, 2009
on "drilling down to value":

Value is subjective. Do you want to marry yourself to a huge mortgage for 30 years, solely for the purpose of tax savings and having something to pass on to your children? Or do you want to get off the rock and own a home in a more affordable market and actually get to leave your house for more than just going to work?

Fortunately, I think some people are forced to do the latter, and I suppose that's a good thing about high, almost ridiculous prices.
ruby

Kapaau, HI

#10 Mar 9, 2009
The last time we looked to bankers and lenders for good advice for our housing buys it seems to me they were in bed with the realtors who met with the buyers and sellors and had a hands on view of what the proerty value should be, and the people could afford.

We are tired of hearing what the economists on their payrolls have to say. No one believes it is in the best interest of the buyers or sellors, or ever was, only the banks, mortgage lenders, and realtors.

The media needs to dig deeper and have reliable, varied resources. It was six days before bear stearnes collapsed that its CEO declared everything was great. What did we really expect? That he would say run for the hills? Follow me?
Oahu Real Estate

Pukalani, HI

#11 Mar 9, 2009
Check out http://www.OahuRE.com to compare home values.
Sklarz is not neutral

Honolulu, HI

#12 Mar 9, 2009
FYI, He's married to a realtor in HI.
alice

Honolulu, HI

#13 Mar 9, 2009
ruby wrote:
The last time we looked to bankers and lenders for good advice for our housing buys it seems to me they were in bed with the realtors who met with the buyers and sellors and had a hands on view of what the proerty value should be, and the people could afford.
We are tired of hearing what the economists on their payrolls have to say. No one believes it is in the best interest of the buyers or sellors, or ever was, only the banks, mortgage lenders, and realtors.
The media needs to dig deeper and have reliable, varied resources. It was six days before bear stearnes collapsed that its CEO declared everything was great. What did we really expect? That he would say run for the hills? Follow me?
ruby is spot-on right. All of the experts missed the radical decline in America's economy, security and power.
my2cents

United States

#14 Mar 9, 2009
I don't get it. Decreasing home values do not mean anything unless you have to sell soon. It's a place to live and not to think of as an investment. The simple rule is just don't live beyond your means. Those who chose to live paycheck to paycheck or depend on two jobs after buying a home are set up for trouble if they don't have at least 12 months of reserve cash to live on.

Some areas will fare better than others. Hawaii Loa Ridge residents choose to live there because they can afford the homes and the maintenance fees.
poor basset

Napa, CA

#15 Mar 9, 2009
You I Dots are showing "STUPID" on your forehead.Just dont get it. Bankers,Mortgage Lenders, Realtors, Property Tax Assessors; Are the True Cause of this MESS. Greed on the part of all of them,no wait, SHAMEFUL GREED is what drove things.Eh; I almost gotta give Alicia some credit; Figure the experts all missed da boati.e. the radical decline in America's economy,security and power. Alice wake up! the so called experts screwed up more than that..+ Plus they contributed Substantially to da mess.Can tell you keikis no was around when the Zero's went ZERO a few years back.. What happened to all da briefcases full of Kala?? Nippon Maru went Belly Up. But all the GREEDY ONES never take Notes.. As Why Today!! PoHo NO??
Kolea

Mililani, HI

#16 Mar 9, 2009
I am no Big Investor, but it is apparrent to me that home prices will continue decline for some time to come. As unemployment goes up, consumer purchasing power goes down. As unemployed and underemployed workers cut back their expenditures, the sales in shops, restaurants, bars and other businesses decline, leading to more layoffs, leading to further declines in consumer spending.

So it goes, into a downward spiral. Each declining factor undermines the remaining factors. Each failing business brings down others. We have NOT seen the end. Heck, we have barely gotten into this depression.

Those who own a home they can afford payments on may lose value on paper, but those losses will not be realized unless they sell. And, even if they sell, the money they get will be applied towards another house whose price has also been falling.

But it would be foolish to buy a first home in this market. If you're renting, continue to rent. If you are looking for a home to buy, you might stumble into a distress sales in this troubled economy, but as a general proposition, prices will be much lower in another year, maybe even lower in 18 months, depending upon how long it takes for the market to bottom out.

The economist Robert Shiller was refered to in the article. He has developed a graph showing the historical prices of homes in the US since 1890. While I agree "every house is unique," and "every micro-market has its own motion," nonetheless, these "micro-trends" are embedded in the larger "macro-trends," which Shiller's graph illustrates so well.

BTW- Shiller's data suggests the Housing Bubble has quite a bit of deflating to do before home prices are at their historic equilibrium point. They are currently about 30% overvalued, due to ill-advised federal housing and tax policies and unregulated, irresponsible bank lending practices of the last decade.

Again, individual markets MAY VARY from the national trend!

You can find his chart here:
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-r...
Market

Kailua, HI

#17 Mar 9, 2009
Good Point
new site

Los Angeles, CA

#19 Mar 9, 2009
Check out http://www.los-angeles-homes-for-sale.com for list of real estate sites.



Regards,

Mike
my2cents

United States

#20 Mar 11, 2009
Kolea wrote:
BTW- Shiller's data suggests the Housing Bubble has quite a bit of deflating to do before home prices are at their historic equilibrium point. They are currently about 30% overvalued, due to ill-advised federal housing and tax policies and unregulated, irresponsible bank lending practices of the last decade.
Again, individual markets MAY VARY from the national trend!
You can find his chart here:
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-r...
As long as the US population continues to grow, there will always be a housing demand whether ownership or rental. The key is location. Choosing where people want to live or where the work will be are what to look for. Areas like Ewa will not fare well because anyone with money to buy will not want to live in Ewa.
naked truth

Honolulu, HI

#21 Mar 11, 2009
True wrote:
Zillow is a computer and has lots of faults
and faulty information.
There are two kinds of buyers in the world.
The buyer who sees a good deal, like now
and the buyer who will never buy because there
is never a good enough deal.
Donald Trump will have the last laugh -
he says the future millionaires are coming
out of those who invest during this storm.
Donald Trump is w...e who made his money selling "greed" to suckers.

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