Isle housing bottom seen - Business

[ipj737]

Guru wrote:

...want some illegals?
From the L. A. Times
1. 40% of all workers in L.A. County (L.A. County has 10.2 million people) are working for cash and not paying taxes This is because they are predominantly illegal immigrants working without a green card.
2. 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens.
3. 75% of people on the most wanted list in Los Angeles are illegal aliens.
4. Over 2/3 of all births in Los Angeles County are to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal, whose births were paid for by taxpayers.
5. Nearly 35% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally.
6. Over 300,000 illegal aliens in Los Angeles County are living in garages.
7. The FBI reports half of all gang members in Los Angeles are most likely illegal aliens from south of the border.
8 Nearly 60% of all occupants of HUD properties are illegal.
9. 21 radio stations in L. A. are Spanish speaking.
10.. In L. A. County 5.1 million people speak English, 3.9 million speak Spanish.
(There are 10.2 million people in L. A. County .)
(All 10 of the above facts were published in the Los Angeles Times)
Less than 2% of illegal aliens are picking our crops, but 29% are on welfare. Over 70% of the United States' annual population growth(and over 90% of California , Florida , and New York ) results from immigration. 29% of inmates in federal prisons are illegal aliens ..
We are fools for letting this continue.

Sounds like the Micronesians here... but at least the Mexicans work for a living.

[makes cents]

harvey what are you smoking? is the weed that good? don't believe the hype!

[Fisherman]

Guru wrote:

...want some illegals?
From the L. A. Times
1. 40% of all workers in L.A. County (L.A. County has 10.2 million people) are working for cash and not paying taxes This is because they are predominantly illegal immigrants working without a green card.
2. 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens.
3. 75% of people on the most wanted list in Los Angeles are illegal aliens.
4. Over 2/3 of all births in Los Angeles County are to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal, whose births were paid for by taxpayers.
5. Nearly 35% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally.
6. Over 300,000 illegal aliens in Los Angeles County are living in garages.
7. The FBI reports half of all gang members in Los Angeles are most likely illegal aliens from south of the border.
8 Nearly 60% of all occupants of HUD properties are illegal.
9. 21 radio stations in L. A. are Spanish speaking.
10.. In L. A. County 5.1 million people speak English, 3.9 million speak Spanish.
(There are 10.2 million people in L. A. County .)
(All 10 of the above facts were published in the Los Angeles Times)
Less than 2% of illegal aliens are picking our crops, but 29% are on welfare. Over 70% of the United States' annual population growth(and over 90% of California , Florida , and New York ) results from immigration. 29% of inmates in federal prisons are illegal aliens ..
We are fools for letting this continue.

I did a quick search on Mexicans crossing the border. Was curious how many illegals come across each day as I remember hearing that about 60,000/day were coming across about 35 years ago. I found that it is hard to estimate, but probably between 838 (about a thousand) and 40,000. There are many ways they can end up in the US and be 'illegal'. Also, there are a LOT from other South American countries too (walking, swimming and driving over the South border).
Whatever, it's a lot each day!

[Guru]

Fisherman wrote:

<quoted text>
I did a quick search on Mexicans crossing the border. Was curious how many illegals come across each day as I remember hearing that about 60,000/day were coming across about 35 years ago. I found that it is hard to estimate, but probably between 838 (about a thousand) and 40,000. There are many ways they can end up in the US and be 'illegal'. Also, there are a LOT from other South American countries too (walking, swimming and driving over the South border).
Whatever, it's a lot each day!

...seems like 40,000 a minute! Here comes another one...
http://www.lolcats.com/images/u/07/38/lolcats...

[alice]

All of these stats don't add up to the truth hon.

[Tama Samoa]

Fisherman wrote:

<quoted text>
I did a quick search on Mexicans crossing the border. Was curious how many illegals come across each day as I remember hearing that about 60,000/day were coming across about 35 years ago. I found that it is hard to estimate, but probably between 838 (about a thousand) and 40,000. There are many ways they can end up in the US and be 'illegal'. Also, there are a LOT from other South American countries too (walking, swimming and driving over the South border).
Whatever, it's a lot each day!

What boarder?...lol Mexico goes all the way from Tiujana to L.A....LOL funny but its the truth...and the and politicians won't touch the issue because they might lose their seat...

[ipj737]

Guru wrote:

<quoted text>
Yeah pj...that sounds good...especially if it is somebody that you want to help. That would be a huge assist for them, in my opinion.
On just the numbers, I think it is fine for this case here...and they should jump at it. I think that for the general public, it is giving a little too much on both the giveback and the 5%, but I am sure you have that covered.
Not knowing that particular situation, nor living day to day in Oahu, and from a "business sense" scenario, I would try for, say a 10-12% minimum rise in the next three years, in these times, subject to the market conditions that you might expect. The risks are there, and although Hawaii is behind the curve in terms of the timing of the economy, say vs.LA, or somewhere else maybe..., that inflation that seems to be in early play will show up within that time frame, making this one sweet deal for them if it materializes...and will dwarf either the 5%, or the 12%. But, again, these are friends, etc. I have helped many of my tenants in the past...many times it is just the right thing to do.
On the 50% giveback, that sounds pretty high to me, considering they save a ton of their paychecks...I might try to limit that to 25%, but, again, I could easily raise that figure depending on the local situation there. Really....it is up to you, and the needs of the people in the unit, the economy right there, etc. They sound like dream tenants to me, and I can surely understand your generosity towards them. If I were them, I would be very thankful that they have you as both their friend and landlord. Good luck with it, however you guys decide to do business.

It comes to about 42% "give back" (Out of the $1,800 rent, she is paying $750 towards principal after you back out the 15% increase) which I think is very generous as most average around 15-25%(from the info I found online).

One reason I want to give them a deal is that they are incredibly nice people, genuine and they take care of the property. It's a couple and the woman is SPED teacher and the man a carpenter, both in their mid-30's. They are very eco-minded and value the sustainability improvements I've made to the property. I also own a couple properties next door that I rent and everyone gets along really well. I may even end up moving next door to them in the future should I decide to marry and have kids.

I haven't presented anything to them yet but will let you know when I do.

[TA Addict]

Tama Samoa wrote:

<quoted text>
Yep!!! love it when they only give you technical analysis and completely ignore fundamentals that points to inflation.
The fact that we said housing cost will climb while there last statement ("Foreclosures, meanwhile, should peak in the first half of the year, he said")proves one point. The disconnection between unemployment and house cost going up is a clear sign of a short term bubble and inflation starting to show its ugly head up... no wonder why gold will continue to climb...

Didn't see any technical analysis in that article. You better know what technical vs. fundamental analysis are in investing, and what the difference is. Look them up.

[leeward lolo]

Now
Flash Flood Watch in effect... scattered heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to affect the islands of Kauai and Oahu...and adjacent coastal waters. The strongest thunderstorms are producing dangerous cloud to ground lightning...along with heavy downpours that will reduce visibilities for some areas making driving difficult. Additionally...these heavy showers will also cause ponding on roadways and in poor drainage areas. The possibility of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue through today.

[TA Addict]

Tama Samoa wrote:

<quoted text>
Yep!!! love it when they only give you technical analysis and completely ignore fundamentals that points to inflation.
The fact that we said housing cost will climb while there last statement ("Foreclosures, meanwhile, should peak in the first half of the year, he said")proves one point. The disconnection between unemployment and house cost going up is a clear sign of a short term bubble and inflation starting to show its ugly head up... no wonder why gold will continue to climb...

PS - what "fundamentals" are you seeing that point to inflation? I see some, but I also see a lot pointing the other way!

[leeward lolo]

Guru wrote:

<quoted text>
...seems like 40,000 a minute! Here comes another one...
http://www.lolcats.com/images/u/07/38/lolcats...

Apparently you are being invaded by Russiam Blue cats which are insulted by degrading name calling. LOL O

[callmealice]

leeward lolo wrote:

Now
Flash Flood Watch in effect... scattered heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to affect the islands of Kauai and Oahu...and adjacent coastal waters. The strongest thunderstorms are producing dangerous cloud to ground lightning...along with heavy downpours that will reduce visibilities for some areas making driving difficult. Additionally...these heavy showers will also cause ponding on roadways and in poor drainage areas. The possibility of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue through today.

Remember if a cloud passes within miles we have a flood watch.
Amazingly schools were open yesterday as there was rain and breeze forecast. LOL O

[alice]

east side oahu is preferred

[Guru]

leeward lolo wrote:

<quoted text>
Apparently you are being invaded by Russiam Blue cats which are insulted by degrading name calling. LOL O

yep lolo....RB's are the best cats...very dominant, and smart!

[alice]

I like Persians the best!

[Guru]

alice wrote:

I like Persians the best!

lol-here ya go...!
http://theneave.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2...

[Guru]

TA Addict wrote:

<quoted text>PS - what "fundamentals" are you seeing that point to inflation? I see some, but I also see a lot pointing the other way!

Inflation is being set in place all over the globe...
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busines...

...if they weren't stealing/hoarding the monies it would already be out of the bottle...decisions are being made right now. When they unleash it, it has a positive effect on the markets for awhile...stocks go up, etc.,...but then reality hits...and it is devastating. They would have to raise rates...and that will cause a bigger problem than we have now. Public gets screwed, either way, unless they are really smart.

"From Times Online
November 13, 2009
Economists fear impact of 'dollar carry trade'
Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent

* 1 Comment

Recommend?(5)

The global economy may be poised for the creation of a massive and potentially explosive “dollar carry trade”— just like the pre-crisis yen carry trade, only more frightening and potentially much bigger.

The warning was issued today at a summit of Asia Pacific leaders in Singapore and comes as a diverse variety of assets have begun to display bubble-like patterns of inflation: everything from gold and copper to fine wine and Hong Kong penthouses.

The dollar carry trade, whereby investors borrow dollars at near zero interest rates to fund asset-buying sprees around the world, has been lurking as a possibility since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year and the extreme monetary response to its aftermath.

And as the carry trade grows more popular among investors it could add yet more downward pressure to the already falling greenback — especially if the “carried”(borrowed) dollars are immediately sold to buy non-dollar denominated assets in China or Singapore.
Related Links

* Geithner stresses importance of strong dollar

* Sterling at three-month high against dollar

* Are the central banks blowing new bubbles?

Many analysts now believe that it was the sudden unwinding of the yen-carry trade — immense pockets of investment funded by cheap borrowed yen — that sent the ripples of the Wall Street crisis so destructively around the world last autumn.

Carry trades — borrowing at low rates to fund higher return assets — make perfect sense until markets turn sour and exchange rates shift too violently. At that point, the rush for the exit wildly exacerbates any crash. A collapse of the dollar carry trade has the potential to be even more harmful, principally because of its scale.

While a few prominent financial gurus have already warned of the threat of an emerging dollar carry trade, governments have steered clear of commentary on the issue until now. But today, talking on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific summit in Singapore, Donald Tsang, Hong Kong’s chief executive, admitted openly that the dollar carry trade had begun to spread and that the prospect “scared” him...."

[Guru]

continued...

"...While a few prominent financial gurus have already warned of the threat of an emerging dollar carry trade, governments have steered clear of commentary on the issue until now. But today, talking on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific summit in Singapore, Donald Tsang, Hong Kong’s chief executive, admitted openly that the dollar carry trade had begun to spread and that the prospect “scared” him.

Washington’s response to the recession, he said, ran the risk of emulating the behaviour of Japan after its own bubble collapsed in 1989 and allowing overly loose policy and a rock-bottom cost of money to inflate asset bubbles around the world.“Gyrations in financial markets and bubbles in asset markets remain ahead of us,” he added.

Hong Kong is perhaps closer to the new asset bubbles than others: house prices there have risen 28 per cent this year and records for land price sales have been set with thudding regularity over recent weeks.

Behind Mr Tsang’s concern, though, is the fixed relationship between the Hong Kong dollar and the greenback — the “dollar peg” that is the cornerstone of Hong Kong financial policy but is currently forcing Hong Kong interest rates to be much lower than the monetary authorities there would like. Hong Kong’s property inflation is, in effect, being driven my mortgages that are cheaper than they should be, but the authorities are limited in how they can respond.

Observers who have warned darkly of the emerging dollar carry trade include Nouriel Roubini, the chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consultancy firm. He believes that the prolonged ability to borrow dollars cheaply risks planting the seed of the next financial catastrophe. Carry traders, he said recently, feel more comfortable with their positions because of the Federal Reserve’s promise to keep rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”.

Others have tentatively raised red flags over the trade. Also attending the APEC meeting in Hong Kong, Robert Zoellick, the preisdnmet of the World Bank, noted that the risk of allowing liquidity to flow into equity and property markets in the region.“In East Asia, if you start to get a strong rebound in growth, and you've got a lot of liquidity, there is the question of whether one could start to face asset bubbles in particular markets,” he said."

[alice]

pokes her guru

[Tama Samoa]

TA Addict wrote:

<quoted text>Didn't see any technical analysis in that article. You better know what technical vs. fundamental analysis are in investing, and what the difference is. Look them up.

Are you the same person who goes under different names who ask me a month ago about what does oil price has to do with dollar weakness?

So since you did not see any charts you easily assume that there weren't any technical analyses. They refer to highs and lows and time frames from quater to year but they don't tell you fundamental analysis that deals with WHY is it going to go up and why is it going to go down.

Now I assume you have strong enough fundamental analysis to support your reason why its going to go the other way. Because when you assume where the market goes without both technical and fundamentals analysis then you my friend becomes a pure gambler rather than a trader...

Technical analysis went out the window last year when the market tank and people were relying on these so call pros on wall street using long term time frames support to jump in when rule number one is to avoid catching a falling knife. I hope you did not lose your under besides your t-shirt...lol I lost some but learn a lot more and the reason why I don't listen anymore to the wall street news. There is nothing to support their claim except stimulus money that when its all spend then we are back to square one.

GDP has gone up mostly by government spending instead of public spending. So the reason why I believe a short term bubble is blowing already as 75% of the stimulus package will flood the market next year while wall street CEO's are about to recieve 30-40% end of the year bonuses while Obamas administration is not making a complain until the public outrage comes out. iTS THE NORM...

So where was I? ohhh technical fundamentals deals with time frames lows and high that the artical was talking about without any charts but they never said anything about why there will be people buying and people going into forclosure as the reason why I said they don't have much or any fundamental analysis.

good luck to you and your trades especially you those fundees...lol now don't go technical on me now...lol