I can say it with a straight face because it is probability.<quoted text>
Thanks for your feedback my friend.
You seem highly confident that my two scenarios will never happen.
The Nuclear fallout ALONE could have serious consequences.
What happened to the many loose Nukes after the fall of the Soviet Union?
The Nuke Genie has been released many years ago. The Genie is out of the bottle.
Israel has over 300 Hundred Nukes (estimated), that can be administered from Land, Sea, and Air.
What would happen when the Whole World including the United States starts attacking Israel?
How will they respond?
Most people worldwide blame God's Chosen for everything.
Naturally this is just speculation on my part, BUT Your 10% sounds really low.
How can you state that 10% number with a straight face?
That seems ludicrous too me.
Scientist admit that an unknown asteroid / comet can hit the earth and there is nothing anyone can do about it, BUT PRAY.
Are you connecting any of ......
..... my dots?
P.S. International Pandemic could certainly destroy 1/3 - 1/4 of population.
P.S.S. It is not my intention too scare anyone.
The Nuclear Bunker Buster
It is an updated model of the Hellman nuclear risk management system or equation.
Rate of initiating events...4% a year.
Probability that event will lead to major crisis 33%
Probability that crisis will lead to use of a nuclear weapon 10%-50%(This would remain at 10% if only secular nations had weapons..so it depends on who is involved.)
Probability that nuclear strike will lead to global nuclear war...10%-50%
Running this equation over 75 years (life expectancy) and you get an average of around 9%-11%
This number falls greatly without the 40% probability increase in the last two factors due to religious zealots having control of nuclear weapons.
Back in the cold war people were told we were on the edge all the time. FEAR and CONSUME. Not much has changed. The highest chances for us to destroy ourselves were in the first few decades we had the weapons. Every year that goes by since...there is less of a chance.(this is not calculated in the model)
OF COARSE 10% seems ridiculous to you. You were programmed from childhood to think impending doom is right around the corner. You belong to a cult of death. To me 10% is a monstrosity. It needs to be dealt with immediately.
Most people don't look forward with glee to an apocalypse this is exclusively a faith based mentality.(Lunacy)
The world has 25,000 nuclear weapons...Israel's 300 is a drop in the bucket. And we could triple that in about a month, if inclined.
EVERYONE who believes in a god...is pretty confident they are chosen. That is half the point. God needs YOU ... he wants YOU. Take AL for example...you can feel the entitlement and elevation she feels...and she is but a serf. And I would wager happy of her chains.
As far as asteroids go...I was pretty clear.
Yes. it is possible there is a giant asteroid out there we have not detected that could sneak up on us and cause a global extinction. Just really unlikely. Same as nuclear war it has to be a SERIES of unfortunate events to get to that outcome.
Even if we only had a few weeks warning it is likely our technology could and would save us from disaster.
It is possible to reduce the chances of both of these scenarios.
But people would have to start giving up on mythology and sitting around doing nothing. Stop supporting/funding primitive behavior.
These two scenarios are hardly the most likely to end us.
I can think of lot of way more likely scenarios...ones that we really are defenseless against at present day.