The 30 year average is 3-4% skewed in favor of Democrats. Last year the average poll said that Obama would win by 11% when he won only by 7.2%.Romney will win and win BIG!
overweight Dems by 7% based on 2008 models
2012 models show Repubs up by 4% over Dems=+4
Independents are breaking up 9% for Romney, and are 30% of the electorate.=+3
Dems are down -3% from 2008 voting totals, minimum = Dems-3%
Undecideds are breaking 2:1 for Romney=+1
=+5 for Romney. There are 2% more dems than Republicans=-2%
+5 - 2=+3% for Mitt Romney, minimum.
=LANDSLIDE FOR ROMNEY.
ROMNEY WINS THE ELECTORAL VOTES BY OVER 300. Swing states of Ohio, Wisc, Virgina, NC, Florida, New Hampshire maybe, Colorado, Michigan all go to Romney.
Polls are all saying it is tied so that they can't be wrong on election day. They are afraid to call it for Romney, but know the polling is way overweighted towards dems who voted in 2008 in large numbers, but are way behind that now. By saying it is a tie they can't be wrong...they can say it was too close to call and it was close.
This will be a surprise wipeout of obama, but will happen because the polls are all skewed to 2008 models, which is not even close now. The correct model will be seen in retrospect to be 2010 at the midterms when the dems were massacred out of office. You will see that again this time in spades.
People are sick of obama. A lot of the dems will not show up this time, and many are going to vote for Romney and will not say it until they punch their vote in.
The cowardly MSM will not admit any of this, and never will. They will go down with obama.
That is my call. Romney will win and win big!
Rasmussen was the closest with 1.2% error, Pew with 2.0% and Gallup with 2.8%. To poll, pollsters call about 1,300 people to get about 1,000 responses. A non-response might be "My parents are not home", "I have to wash my hair" or "I am on my way to church".
But the overall fact is the group the is lest likely to be polled is the Religious Right.
In 2008 the Religious Right did not turn out for McCain but this year they are some of the most motivated voters. Issues like gay marriage, abortion, radical Islam, etc. are very big and they have confidence in Romney!!!
To, if the pollsters are saying 50/50, it will probably be 52/48 in favor of Romney just because of the Religious Right!