8 reasons why Obama might not win

Full story: Chicago Tribune

In January 2005, just after Barack Obama was sworn in as a United States senator from Illinois, I published eight reasons why he'd run for president in 2008.
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Rachel

Portland, OR

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#1
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Let's just hope whoever wins cares about social justice.

"I saw the people living there in houses made of garbage, I saw somebody die because they couldn't find the cure...we can change the world." - elliot5.com
Rick

United States

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#2
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Chronic Woes? What kind of dope are you smokin? I guess you don't read the financial part of the newspaper. It sure aint chronic woes, it is an extremely urgent crisis. So based on just that one point, your whole column doesn't hold water. Face it, Obama will win.
Elaine

San Diego, CA

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#3
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Mr. Zorn,

Thanks for the list. To it I would add a 9th: the Florida Effect

That is, all the new voting rules "and games are turning voting into an obstacle course that could flip the vote to the GOP in half a dozen states" (see ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. & GREG PALAST's "Block the Vote" article at http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23... ). The new rules mean that many votes do NOT get counted and that certain groups have more difficulty when trying to vote. Who? New voters, young and old voters, and, as it turns out, also certain African-American voters. Thus, the country is at risk of having Florida (or worse) all over again in many of the swing states. Also see:

http://www.esquire.com/the-side/richardson-re... and http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27313... (Kennedy on Rachel's).

Please inform people about the VOTER'S BILL OF RIGHTS at www.NoVoterLeftBehind.net (project with Robert F. Kennedy Jr).

Thank you,

Elaine
San Diego, CA
Polly

Pullman, WA

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#5
Oct 28, 2008
 

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I don't know. Has the author of this article been living on the same planet that I've been living on? I like Obama a bit better than the other guy, but saying Obama has defended too much or was too dismissive just seems to be a matter of uniformed opinion. Both candidates are jerks and they're spending more money on their campaigns than the bottom 20% of the population will earn in their lifetime.
Both candidates suck, but Obama is just a little bit better than the other "maverick".
DrMarkus

Little Falls, NJ

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#6
Oct 28, 2008
 
I have not had the pleasure of reading Mr. Zorn before this article. I look forward to the next. I know it's unusual, but I haven't any critique to offer...
frank burns

São Paulo, Brazil

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Oct 28, 2008
 

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The other reason he might lose is the gullibility of the least educated in the US, who actually believe the Republican elite is concerned about relgious issues, and not just pandering for votes so they can further their agenda-for-the-wealthy.
RJ Lemon

Lausanne, Switzerland

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#8
Oct 28, 2008
 
I don't find this credible at all. Poorly written and grasping in the air.
SMR

Since: Oct 08

Location hidden

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#9
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Curtis Lowe wrote:
Obama will lose. McCain has alredy won. And as for Florida being accused of voter supression, FELONS ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO VOTE!
Hi Curtis,hopefully the Feds will jump in and stop the Voter Fraud! I agree with what your saying!!
Tony

Roselle, IL

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#10
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Curtis Lowe wrote:
Obama will lose. McCain has alredy won. And as for Florida being accused of voter supression, FELONS ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO VOTE!
Out and out denial. Go cry in your cowboy boots Tex, the jig is up!

OBAMA 08!
George

Metairie, LA

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Oct 28, 2008
 

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If Obama and Biden are elected, this is what going to happen:

They will not be able to keep themselves from an all out assault upon the second amendment; no matter what good they do--doing other things, I would see them, and those following upon their coat tails---being successful enough at this, as to create a backlash from Americans that know where such success will lead. The "leftist" faction of the Democrats put into power, will make the same mistake as always, thus ensuring that the Republicans will be back after the backlash---for a very long time!
Billy

Phoenix, AZ

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#12
Oct 28, 2008
 
how closely do you work with ms. cleo?
Linus

Portland, OR

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#14
Oct 28, 2008
 

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I realize you have to have a story in order to write something, but none of these are credible. The Bradley Effect has not been evidenced in any American election in nearly 20 years. "Bittergate" was months ago -- don't you think that's already been priced in vis a vis public opinion? Obama has played defense because he has the upper hand, and in case you haven't noticed, McCain's offense has raised his negatives. These are all nothing. The only way Obama loses this election is if he dies between now and next week. Not even a terrorist attack on American soil would do it, I don't think.

He has an inherent Electoral College advantage: that is, he's more likely than McCain to lose the popular vote and win the election. He can lose both Florida and Ohio and still win the election -- in fact, probably still would. McCain is out of reach in Pennsylvania and Virginia, two states he cannot win without. It's all over but the crying, at this point.
Rick

United States

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#16
Oct 28, 2008
 

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The Obama Campaign should read this because it is dead right. I been polling as a job in the last 3 weeks and you are dead right on some of the issues you have listed are complaints made by a lot of the people who would not vote for him. They called him "baby killer," "terrorist," recently, "socialist", etc, which means that some people are imbibing these labels.
First, Obama needed/needs to properly disclaim these allegations. He has been too casual in the explanation.
Secondly, show that McCain could be assigned some of the same labels, also. For instance:

1) I have read that McCain is a compulsive gambler, yet Obama has steered completely clear of mentioning it.
2) SNL showed McCain in a TV report in 2002 saying exactly what Obama said about using taxes to spread the wealth around. In the report a girl in the audience questioned him if he was not being a socialist, and McCain explained it away. That TV report should be an Obama ad this last week.
Taxes are legitimate and effective fiscal policy instruments, otherwise, the rich will continue to get richer and the poor get poorer. Powell expressed this in his interview but the Obama camp has been unable to clearly articulate to the public why and how taxes are used by government and it is hurting them.

Also, the Biden statement meant to explain that Obama has shown his ability to calmly deal with crisis and issues of major complexity demonstrated by the debates, his handly of his campaign and the recent economic predicament. The Obama campaign handlers have not come out to explain this and Biden has been quiet leaving the media to carry on with its spin.

Obama could be way ahead but he needs to do something to close the deal and it is not just talking about his programs. There has to be effective defense and one major offensive.
Kevin

Oneida, NY

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#18
Oct 28, 2008
 

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I find it pretty hard to vote for a guy who can't stand next to and campaign with even one associate from more than 4 years ago. It means either-

A. Nobody Obama ever came across thinks highly enough of him to vouch for him or promote him.

Or

B. All of his past associations are politically toxic.

Either way, it isn't a good deal.
jay-jay

Branford, CT

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#19
Oct 28, 2008
 

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it is easier than you explained; you left off his lack of experience and the voters inability to explain anything that he stands for -
moonbuggy

Philadelphia, PA

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#20
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Someone good ones, but not great reasons. Sure I noticed some of these, but for example #1 is a very old issue now. People don't sit back and think that's why. And there are a lot of other reasons that seem like fairly unimportant. Perhaps only 2 were good. At this point people minds are made up. Anyone who thinks a major swing in sentiment over the next 7 days is likely is kidding them selfs.

Polls are not that trustable, except there is one bit of evidence against mccain here. And that is that even though polls are a bit random, how on Earth can they be continually in favor of Obama nearly all the time for over a month? That couldn't be a good sign. So yes, your list of 8 are things people have thought about, but at this point in the game it's only mixed into the bigger equation. And the sum of that shows Obama has a good shot of winning.
media-bias

Port Orange, FL

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#21
Oct 28, 2008
 

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On Thursday don't forget to include media-bias, or he has lots of cheerleaders in the media. They are pretending to report the news, but are pushing their views on the rest of us.
moonbuggy

Philadelphia, PA

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#22
Oct 28, 2008
 
I meant, "Some are good ones", not "Someone good ones"
Ally L

Minneapolis, MN

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#23
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Opinion after opinion. Can we create an article based on fact? or even somewhat close to fact? You sound desperate to bash Obama it's kinda sad.
McCain made stuff up about Obama constantly and only tried to bash Obama for little stupid stuff that wasn't even true. Obama focuses more on the issues than McCain. McCain had the strategy of a little kid comming into this: try to make the other guy look bad by pointing out things about his character and things he's supposedly done rather than focus on the issues and trying to prove that he can run this country better than the other guy.
Oh yeah, let me tell ya, Obama really wants to teach SEXUAL EDUCATION to Kindergardeners!!
What a way to flip around something. Obama wanted to teach children about sexual predetars. you know those bastards who try to get kids into their cars with candy? don't you think little kids should know about that stuff? but McCain tries to say Obama wants to teach kids about sex and educate them about sex.
what a bloody retard. and that my friends, is my off point rant : D
shek

United States

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#24
Oct 28, 2008
 

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Felons CAN vote, if they have finished repaying their debt to society; for the most part/depending on the state. If Oliver North and G Liddy can vote, a guy who had a couple too many grams of cocaine in his pocket should be allowed to vote after he finishes serving his time.

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