Once slow-moving threat, global warming speeds up, leaving litt...

Full story: Newsday

When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, global warming was a slow-moving environmental problem that was easy to ignore.

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SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#40405
Oct 7, 2013
 

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University of Reading scientists have warned the world’s governments not to ignore the findings of the most comprehensive assessment on climate change.

The Fifth Assessment Report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was published at a major conference in Stockholm last month.

The landmark report finds that scientists are 95 per cent sure that the humans are the ‘dominant cause’ of global warming since the 1950s.
Mothra

Phoenix, AZ

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#40406
Oct 7, 2013
 

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SpaceBlues wrote:
SpaceBlues wrote:
*poof*

More CO2 spewed into the atmosphere courtesy of a global warming hypocrite.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#40407
Oct 7, 2013
 

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New in Nature Climate Change: the entire life cycle of harvesting coal and turning it into gas produces 36 to 82 percent more total greenhouse gas emissions than burning coal directly.
Cut n Paste

Prior Lake, MN

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#40408
Oct 7, 2013
 

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What caused the "Changes in the exchange of heat between the upper and deep ocean?"
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#40409
Oct 7, 2013
 

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Fair Game wrote:
<quoted text>
Unfortunately you are too partisan to actually look at the evidence, so your rationalization is in the psychological form.
<quoted text>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalization_...
I have no idea how looking at observations is partisan. I look at past predictions made by AGW scientists and compare them to the observations of today. There is nothing political or partisan about that. I guess it's your way to rationalize my posts so you can dismiss them. Whatever.

But here is a past prediction:

An article written in 2009 stated a new paper coming out that was supposed to “silence the skeptics.” It stated that the world would heat up 150% more than IPCC predictions in the next 5 years. The Met Office also came out in 2007 stating that global warming would come roaring back by 2009 and by 2014 would be 0.3 degrees warmer than 2004. One of the comments in the comments sections said this:

“Contrary to the subheading, rapid warming in the next five years certainly will not silence the sceptics-- it's hard to imagine that anything could. They'll just say that it's solar activity, as they've said all along, and El Niño, nothing to do with us, and not worth lifting a finger to do anything about it.”

So funny how it is you that is now rationalizing. You are the ones coming up with excuses such as the heat is in the deep oceans. The skeptics have been saying that AGW is not catastrophic and that the warming has been largely due to natural variability, which in fact fits better into the climate models than the CO2 driver model.

kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#40410
Oct 7, 2013
 

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Fair Game wrote:
Krusty's excuses No 1.
<quoted text>
Focus on short term trends.
<quoted text>
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/rec...
LOL….the Met Office? You mean the Met Office that had to change their 10-year predictions on warming 2 times within 5 years?
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#40411
Oct 7, 2013
 

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Fair Game wrote:
Krusty's excuses no. 4:
<quoted text>
Keep eyes covered and ears closed.
<quoted text>
http://www.skepticalscience.com/extreme-weath...
From the IPCC AR5 regarding “extreme” weather:

Overall, the most robust global changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves. Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability.

There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century.

Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.

In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.

In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems.

In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950.

In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low.
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#40412
Oct 7, 2013
 

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Fair Game wrote:
Krusty's excuses No. 5:
<quoted text>
Look for "good news" from science and exaggerate it's importance.
<quoted text>
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm...
Your rationalization is kicking in here by you trying to downplay the importance of climate sensitivity. It is actually very important. Catastrophic AGW depends on a high climate sensitivity. The AR5 has lowered the climate sensitivity parameters and now for the first time has given no best estimate of climate sensitivity due to lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.

So they are now less confident in climate sensitivity, but are more confident than ever that we will have catastrophic AGW. This is what you are trying to rationalize.
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#40413
Oct 7, 2013
 

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Fair Game wrote:
Krusty's excuses No. 6:
<quoted text>
Always focus on the doubt and stress uncertainty, even when, especially when the scientific assessment is that the evidence of serious risk far outweighs the uncertainties and doubts remaining.
The evidence that the sun or the PDO is responsible for global warming, or that clouds are going to be a negative feed back is just not there.
We are talking about science and you are talking about politics. The uncertainties are massive when we are talking about the climate. If you don't know the effects of clouds, sun, PDO, etc., there is no way you can make a scientific certainty that CO2 is the main driver. Especially since the science has now stated there is no best guess as to what the climate sensitivity is and especially since this 15-year standstill was never predicted by the climate models, as can be seen when you go back to 2007 and all climate models were predicting a rapid rise in temperature over the next 5 years. Something is wrong and the uncertainties matter. Stop trying to rationalize that they don't.
Retired Farmer

Hopkinsville, KY

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#40414
Oct 7, 2013
 

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SpaceBlues wrote:
<quoted text>You must revise because it's not realistic.
What are they going to eat?
You must not be from a farm background. My grandparents came from the Appalachian Mountains, where people existed as subsistence farmers for many generations. All it takes is a little plot of level ground in a creek valley or "hollow". I still know most of those subsistence farming skills and I passed it along to my daughter and her husband, who is also from a farming background.

You could do it on the northern Plains too provided that the area does not turn into the Dust Bowl again. I know a college professor who recently bought an old abandoned homestead and 160 acres of basically wasteland (meaning not suited to mechanized agriculture)in South Dakota as insurance against a societal breakdown. He's a city boy and so's his wife, but they are actually learning how to farm, raise livestock (pigs and chickens), and hunt - just in case. Please don't think they (or me) are "Survivalist" types that want to live in a bunker/armory. We're not. But the handwriting appears to be on the wall for some sort of global catastrophe - enviormental, economic, societal - a sort of perfect super storm of everything coming together at once.
Mothra

Phoenix, AZ

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#40415
Oct 7, 2013
 

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gcaveman1 wrote:
Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists say that there is a ninety-five percent chance that ninety-nine percent of us are contributing one-hundred percent of the extra GHG emissions on this planet.
I'll take that for a dollar!
A dollar is a real amount. When someone posts as evidence a series of percentages based on a bunch of other percentages, I have to ask for the numbers behind the percentages.

Start with this... how many climate scientists are there? Is that for the world, a country or an IPCC report?

A full list would be helpful.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#40416
Oct 7, 2013
 
Cut n Paste wrote:
What caused the "Changes in the exchange of heat between the upper and deep ocean?"
The answer requires you to know science and mathematics. Without knowledge, you have no idea, yes?
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#40417
Oct 7, 2013
 
Retired Farmer wrote:
<quoted text>
You must not be from a farm background. My grandparents came from the Appalachian Mountains, where people existed as subsistence farmers for many generations. All it takes is a little plot of level ground in a creek valley or "hollow". I still know most of those subsistence farming skills and I passed it along to my daughter and her husband, who is also from a farming background.
You could do it on the northern Plains too provided that the area does not turn into the Dust Bowl again. I know a college professor who recently bought an old abandoned homestead and 160 acres of basically wasteland (meaning not suited to mechanized agriculture)in South Dakota as insurance against a societal breakdown. He's a city boy and so's his wife, but they are actually learning how to farm, raise livestock (pigs and chickens), and hunt - just in case. Please don't think they (or me) are "Survivalist" types that want to live in a bunker/armory. We're not. But the handwriting appears to be on the wall for some sort of global catastrophe - enviormental, economic, societal - a sort of perfect super storm of everything coming together at once.
I am not.

Do you think a typical denier is already set for farming?

SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#40418
Oct 7, 2013
 

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There's no way the dense oldkristy could write replies to Fair Game. It must be a denier committe, LOL. Five in a row, wow.

Still wrong, though. Thoroughly WRONG!
dont drink the koolaid

Minneapolis, MN

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#40419
Oct 7, 2013
 

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kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
From the IPCC AR5 regarding “extreme” weather:
Overall, the most robust global changes in climate extremes are seen in measures of daily temperature, including to some extent, heat waves. Precipitation extremes also appear to be increasing, but there is large spatial variability.
There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century.
Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.
In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.
In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems.
In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950.
In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low.
Very helpful contribution for better understanding the significance of the AR5.
gcaveman1

Bay Springs, MS

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#40420
Oct 7, 2013
 
Retired Farmer wrote:
And still more (rising seas):
http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warmin...
I've pretty much decided that the deniers and "warming is good" crowd and the preachers who think that global warming is a necessary prelude to the famines of the Apocalypse have already won this fight.
I've started looking for a place somewhere in the remote northern Rockies, a little isolated valley with a rock shelter or a cave where I can establish a refuge for my daughter and her family to flee to when the time comes.
Do this, Farmer.

http://www.bing.com/news/apiclick.aspx...
dont drink the koolaid

Minneapolis, MN

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#40421
Oct 7, 2013
 

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Here is a typical view of CC before the AR5:

"Modeling of possible future changes with increased greenhouse gases has also been limited. However, several studies suggest that recent observed trends towards more intense extra-tropical storms (cyclones) in the northern hemisphere may be a part of human induced climate change. For example, from the Canadian Climate-model runs, it was concluded that although the total number of winter cyclones would decrease with increased greenhouse gases there would be an increase in frequency of very intense storms. This suggests that more of the precipitation (snow and rain) would occur in intense bursts, and there would be more frequent wind damages. The U.K. Meteorological Office model suggests a poleward shift and intensification of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks with the most spectacular increase in intensity in eastern Atlantic and western Europe. These results are consistent with observed increase in Northern Hemisphere severe storms and North Atlantic significant wave heights over the past 3 decades." And for a typical reaction to these scientific "facts" just review any number of past posts by Climate Science 'Faithful'.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

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#40422
Oct 7, 2013
 

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kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
We are talking about science and you are talking about politics.
LOL.

You've repeatedly proved that you don't know science when somebody whacks you over the head with it.
gcaveman1

Bay Springs, MS

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#40423
Oct 7, 2013
 

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Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists say that there is a ninety-five percent chance that ninety-nine percent of us are contributing one-hundred percent of the extra GHG emissions on this planet.

I really like the way that rolls off the page.

And close enough to the truth to satisfy me. With so many lies being posted here by deniers, I don't feel any pressure to be precise. It's a close enough approximation.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

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#40424
Oct 7, 2013
 

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kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Your rationalization is kicking in here by you trying to downplay the importance of climate sensitivity. It is actually very important. Catastrophic AGW depends on a high climate sensitivity. The AR5 has lowered the climate sensitivity parameters and now for the first time has given no best estimate of climate sensitivity due to lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.
So they are now less confident in climate sensitivity, but are more confident than ever that we will have catastrophic AGW. This is what you are trying to rationalize.
*Even if* the climate sensitivity is a bit lower, we're still putting enough CO2 into the atmosphere to raise temperatures to a dangerous level.

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