First off, if heat is moving into the deep ocean, thats a good thing. Its not coming back out.<quoted text>
A non sequitur. If heat is moving into the deep ocean where it wasn't before, which the evidence seems to suggest, then there is no reason to think that warming was overestimated.
The man who told you about the missing heat says he's found it now:
Why do you believe him when he says there's missing heat but not when he says there is no missing heat any more?
Here's a peer reviewed paper that says, when you take the random fluctuations of a small part of the Pacific ocean into account, the observations of global temperatures fit the predictions very well.
Here's another that shows observations matched model predictions over the previous 16 years, when the model is adjusted to previous climate fluctuations.
Two papers that say recent slower warming is due to short term effects and says nothing about the long term threat of AGW.
I've posted links to two peer reviewed papers: let's see you do the same.
Regarding Kevin Trenberth, he tells conflicting stories. In 2008 from an NPR article regarding the Argo buoys, this was said:
Some 3,000 scientific robots that are plying the ocean have sent home a puzzling message. These diving instruments suggest that the oceans have not warmed up at all over the past four or five years. Where is the extra heat all going?
Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research says it's probably going back out into space. The Earth has a number of natural thermostats, including clouds, which can either trap heat and turn up the temperature, or reflect sunlight and help cool the planet. That can't be directly measured at the moment, however. "Unfortunately, we don't have adequate tracking of clouds to determine exactly what role they've been playing during this period," Trenberth says.
Then Trenberth publishes a paper telling us the missing heat is in the deep oceans.
Then another paper is written that conflicts with Trenberths paper, author Loeb:
Climate Wire report on Loebs paper published in Nature Geosciences paper:
Researchers puzzle over measurements of ocean-stored heat (Monday, January 23, 2012)
Lauren Morello, E&E reporter
Earths missing heat might not be missing after all.
Thats the conclusion of a new study that examines how accurately satellites and floating ocean instruments track the flow of energy from the sun to Earth and back again.
Those measurements are at the heart of a puzzle climate scientists have been trying hard to crack: why, as greenhouse gas emissions rose and satellite data showed an increasing amount of energy trapped in the planets atmosphere, the amount of heat absorbed by the worlds oceans a major heat sink wasnt rising as quickly.
One answer to the puzzle came from climate scientists Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who coined the term missing heat and later suggested it may be stored in the deep ocean, where there are few measurements to track the energys path.
But new research, published yesterday in the journal Nature Geoscience, argues that what Trenberth and Fasullo dubbed missing heat isnt missing, after all that the amount of radiation trapped in Earths atmosphere, as measured by satellite sensors, is consistent with measurements of heat absorbed by the ocean.
Any discrepancy falls within the margin of error on those measurements, say the studys authors, led by NASA climate scientist Norman Loeb.
Continued next post