Once slow-moving threat, global warming speeds up, leaving litt...

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When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, global warming was a slow-moving environmental problem that was easy to ignore.

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No Warming

Waverly, OH

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#38086
Aug 16, 2013
 

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How can I distort data I didn't create, its all in the records. I'm not Mike Mann.
No Warming

Waverly, OH

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#38087
Aug 17, 2013
 

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gcaveman1 wrote:
<quoted text>
No, the POINT was, and the bullseye is, that the prediction of a slowing of the rate was accurately predicted and the oceans were named as a key factor. This something deniers have been cheering about the scientists missing. Well, this guy didn't miss. His prediction certainly wasn't worthless, now was it?
I don't know what the margin of error was re the 0.3 C. I know that predictions have varying degrees of accuracy and that the science is ongoing so new details are discovered all the time. But if you want to throw out the CO2 or methane contribution, you're not allowed. The science is too firm.
If the warming is greater than 0.3 C, will you promise to go away?
You can calculate the margin of error by using the .3C forecast and .02C actual outcome, problem is you need an even more screwed up forecast for comparison. Maybe Met Office can claim the next two years will be one full degree [1C] above 2004 and it will smooth things out. Still need some warming at some point.

Since: May 13

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#38088
Aug 17, 2013
 

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We're actually in a cooling trend for last 8 yrs.

Why do we have recorded in history that it was hotter before the industrial age ?

Lib liars want to bring our way of life down, period, while the rest of the world pollutes at will.

Weather is nothing but cyclical.

Since: Jul 11

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#38089
Aug 17, 2013
 

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Asitshouldbe wrote:
We're actually in a cooling trend for last 8 yrs.
Why do we have recorded in history that it was hotter before the industrial age ?
Lib liars want to bring our way of life down, period, while the rest of the world pollutes at will.
Weather is nothing but cyclical.
When you throw out the lib card, you give yourself away.

You might want to check out this link on how Fox news is one of the driving forces for the denial movement. Climate is NOT a lib issue, it's a global issue that should have bi-partisan support.

Extract:

"The question now is how long the Republican Party's global warming denial and obstruction of climate solutions can last in the face of these growing numbers of Americans (including Republicans) demanding climate solutions. Climate misinformation from Fox News and other conservative media outlets may be stemming the tide against climate denial, but the tide is rising, both literally and figuratively."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climat...

Since: Mar 09

Wichita, KS

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#38090
Aug 17, 2013
 
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Oh so now in order to disprove AGW, you have to show an EXACT cause whereas to prove AGW it can just be plausible, even if all models fail to live up to obsevations. So far the skeptics who have said we are warming and that CO2 does contribute, but more like 15% are more accurate than the models. These scientists have said the warming would not be as catastrophic as the claims from the IPCC. So their argument is more plausible than the AGW hypothesis.
That is the way science works. The theory has been established that CO2 introduced into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels is causing the planet to warm. The only way to derail the theory is to prove that something else is causing the current unexpected warming, not CO2. So far all you have said is that it is not warming as much as the models say it should for the short term.
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38091
Aug 17, 2013
 

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Mothra wrote:
<quoted text>
With the thousands of predictions made, ONE seems to be accurate thereby validating all the failed ones?
Reminds me of Hype posting a single article about a researcher who itemized his expenses from a grant, as "proof" that all the others do the same.
Extrapolate much?
This was wasn't eve accurate. If it was accurate, why did the Met Office throw it out? The prediction was for 2004-2014. At the time they made the prediction they already knew we were in a pause, so they just predicted a few more years of the pause and then temperatures would come roaring back with 3/5 years after 2009 being warmer then 1998. They then threw out this prediction and revised it in 2011 to this: During the period 2012-2016 global average temperatures will rise between 0.36 C and 0.72 C above the long term (1971-2000) average with values most likely to be about 0.54 C higher than average. They then threw out that prediction and revised it again in 2012 to now say that global temperatures up to 2017 will most likely be 0.43 deg C above the 1971 -2000 average, with an error of +/- 0.15 deg C.

There is no way a 10-year prediction is accurate if it has already been revised 2 times.

Here is an overlay with the 2011 prediction with the updated 2012 prediction.

http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/01...
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38092
Aug 17, 2013
 

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gcaveman1 wrote:
Belief.
Gee, caveman won:
The Earth is warming.
We are causing it.
We can do something about it.
<><><>< ><><><> <><><>< ><><>
Krusty believes in an international conspiracy involving thousands of scientists, generals, bankers, politicians, and world leaders, past and present, who plan to take over control of the world.
Something like:
The Illuminati trace their origins back thousands of years to their conception as a result of the genetic inbreeding between a reptilian extraterrestrial race and humanity. Their modern origin, however, traces back to the 1760s and a man named Adam Weishaupt, who defected from the Catholic church and organized the Illuminati, financed by the International Bankers. Since then, according to the Illuminati, their top goal has been to achieve a “one world government” and to subjugate all religions and governments in the process. The Illuminati thus attribute all wars since the French Revolution as having been fomented by them in their pursuit of their goals.
Weishaupt wrote out a master plan in the 1770s outlining the Illuminati’s goals, finishing on May 1, 1776. According to the Illuminati, this great day is still commemorated by Communist nations in the form of May Day. At the time Weishaupt’s ideology was first introduced, Britain and France were the two greatest world powers, and so the Illuminati claimed credit for having kindled the Revolutionary War in order to weaken the British Empire and the French Revolution to destroy the French Empire..........Under new leadership by an American general named Albert Pike, the Illuminati worked out a blueprint for three world wars throughout the 20th century that would lead to a one world government by the end of the 20th century. According to the Illuminati, the First World War was fought to destroy Czarism in Russia (the Illuminati had held a grudge against the Czarist regime since Russia had thwarted its plans for a one world government after the Napoleonic Wars) and to establish Russia as a stronghold of Communism.
Likewise, the Illuminati claim that the Second World War pitted the Fascists against the “political Zionists” so as to build up International Communism until it equaled in strength that of the United Christendom. According to Illuminati plans, the Third World War, which is to be fought between the political Zionists and the leaders of the Moslem world, will drain the international community to the extent that they will have no choice but to form a one world government.
<><><>< ><><><> <><><>< >
Belief.
You said you were going to blow me out of the water and show me how wrong I am. Instead you post some jibberish. In order to blow me out of the water, you have to at least show where my information is wrong about the funding of the Adaptation Fund, wealth distribution, World Bank, IMF, poverty in Africa, governments funding climate change science.

But I know you are busy worrying about all the scientists who are deniers and the complex web of denialism. You know all of them are paid by big oil to deny. There is no other reason for them to deny. They hate science. They still think the Earth is flat.
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38093
Aug 17, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
Sarcasm sucks, but when the subject goes from climate to asteroids and witch burning what next.
Funny!! Here is what an exchange would have been like back in the day:

Village Alarmist: The village has a witch, we must burn her at the stake for the safety of the village.

Village skeptic: Why do you think this person is a witch?

Village alarmist: She was in the town square and fell to the ground and started writhing and screaming. Then the next day, the town hall was burned to the ground.

Village skeptic: Why do you think she was responsible?

Village alarmist: What else could it be? Prove it’s something else. We must burn her tonight.

Village skeptic: But wait, Why don’t we wait and see if there are other explanations for the fire.

(The alarmist then gathers the entire village and tells them horrible catastrophic things will happen unless they burn the witch).

Village alarmist: We have no time to wait. This is an absolute. No debate. This is settled. We will burn her tonight for the safety of the village and for our future children.

kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38094
Aug 17, 2013
 

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OzRitz wrote:
I'm sure half these deniers would be more happy with a large asteroid heading towards Earth to finish us all off rather than a unseen enemy like man made warming. That way they could argue about its trajectory while they wait and die defiant.
All through history its been the same with the flat earth ppl, the plaque was caused by witches so they were burnt at the stake. Science always had to play a backward step until evidence rolls over them like a steam roller. One wonders what the steam roller will be with warming, one hurricane too many or the cost of living.
What is one hurricane too many, just so I know.
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38095
Aug 17, 2013
 

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OzRitz wrote:
<quoted text>
You may not like the comparison, but when ignorance is viewed by historians in years to come. I'm sorry but you guys will be right up there with the witch burners. Science is real, its not a religion nor is it a myth.
You all are just too funny.
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38096
Aug 17, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
This is ignorance :
"Britain’s Met Office projects 2014 temperature likely to be 0.3 degrees Celsius warmer than 2004.“Here is the climate forecast for the next decade [2007-2014]; although global warming will be held in check for a few years, it will come roaring back to send the mercury rising before 2014. This is the prediction of the first computer model of the global climate designed to make forecasts over a timescale of around a decade, developed by scientists at the Met Office. The new model developed at the Met's Hadley Centre in Exeter, and described in the journal Science, predicts that warming will slow during the next few years but then speed up again, and that at least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the warmest year on record.
Over the 10-year period [2007-2014] as a whole, climate continues to warm and 2014 is likely to be 0.3 deg C [0.3 degrees Celsius] warmer than 2004. The overall trend in warming is driven by greenhouse gas emissions but this warming effect will be broadly cancelled out over the next few years by the changing patterns of the ocean temperatures.”(Roger Highfield, Science Editor,“Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014,” The Daily Telegraph, London, England, United Kingdom, August 9, 2007 reporting findings in Doug M. Smith, Stephen Cusack, Andrew W. Colman, Chris K. Folland, Glen R. Harris, and James M. Murphy,“Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model,” Science, August 10, 2007 317: 796-799 DOI: 10.1126/science.1139540)"
That seems to me like a hit right in the middle of the goddamed bullseye! The only data missing is the year we haven't experienced yet (2014). I guess we'll have to wait and see. But it appears that it was not only predicted, but explained as well.
And here is the record since 2004.
Year
HadCRUT4
NOAA NCDC
NASA GISS
WMO Average
2012 0.44±0.10 0.45 0.44 0.45
2011 0.40±0.09 0.41 0.44 0.42
2010 0.54±0.09 0.53 0.56 0.54
2009 0.49±0.09 0.47 0.5 0.48
2008 0.38±0.09 0.38 0.37 0.38
2007 0.48±0.09 0.46 0.52 0.49
2006 0.49±0.09 0.47 0.48 0.48
2005 0.53±0.09 0.52 0.55 0.54
2004 0.44±0.09 0.45 0.41 0.43
Where is .3C warming.
In order for any part of the prediction to come true, 2014 would have to end up at 0.74.

Since: Mar 09

Wichita, KS

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#38097
Aug 17, 2013
 

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kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
You said you were going to blow me out of the water and show me how wrong I am. Instead you post some jibberish. In order to blow me out of the water, you have to at least show where my information is wrong about the funding of the Adaptation Fund, wealth distribution, World Bank, IMF, poverty in Africa, governments funding climate change science.
But I know you are busy worrying about all the scientists who are deniers and the complex web of denialism. You know all of them are paid by big oil to deny. There is no other reason for them to deny. They hate science. They still think the Earth is flat.
Even if this were so it does nothing to discredit climate science. If your conspiracy is true, it is obvious that the conspiratists would use anything that would further their cause. Even global warming. That does nothing to show that the premise of global warming is wrong. It simply says that your conspiratists will use it to further their cause.....

Since: Mar 09

Wichita, KS

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#38098
Aug 17, 2013
 
kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
Funny!! Here is what an exchange would have been like back in the day:
Village Alarmist: The village has a witch, we must burn her at the stake for the safety of the village.
Village skeptic: Why do you think this person is a witch?
Village alarmist: She was in the town square and fell to the ground and started writhing and screaming. Then the next day, the town hall was burned to the ground.
Village skeptic: Why do you think she was responsible?
Village alarmist: What else could it be? Prove it’s something else. We must burn her tonight.
Village skeptic: But wait, Why don’t we wait and see if there are other explanations for the fire.
(The alarmist then gathers the entire village and tells them horrible catastrophic things will happen unless they burn the witch).
Village alarmist: We have no time to wait. This is an absolute. No debate. This is settled. We will burn her tonight for the safety of the village and for our future children.
LOL, you are writhing and screaming.
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38099
Aug 17, 2013
 

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OzRitz wrote:
<quoted text>
When you throw out the lib card, you give yourself away.
You might want to check out this link on how Fox news is one of the driving forces for the denial movement. Climate is NOT a lib issue, it's a global issue that should have bi-partisan support.
Extract:
"The question now is how long the Republican Party's global warming denial and obstruction of climate solutions can last in the face of these growing numbers of Americans (including Republicans) demanding climate solutions. Climate misinformation from Fox News and other conservative media outlets may be stemming the tide against climate denial, but the tide is rising, both literally and figuratively."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climat...
Just wondering do you give yourself away only if you throw out the lib card? Is it giving yourself away when you throw out the Rush/Beck/Fox/right-wing/chris tian/denial complex card?
kristy

Oviedo, FL

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#38100
Aug 17, 2013
 

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OzRitz wrote:
You might read this article from the guardian. It explains the way you guys distort data.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/jul/2...
All I got from this article was how much they don't know and what they need to learn, but that somehow that doesn't change anything and that they again prove they really have no clue by giving another bad prediction.

From the article:

Recent slowdown in the upward march of global temperatures is likely to be the result of the slow warming of the deep oceans, British scientists said on Monday.

(But then they said this:)

Sutton said more research was needed on the effects of warming on the deep oceans, as observations of deep ocean temperatures have only been carried out in detail over the past decade and more are needed.

(Then the article said this:)
The Met Office warned early in the summer that the UK could be in for a decade of "washout" summers, like those of the past six years, because of the effect of climate change on global weather systems, partly as a result of changes in wind patterns caused by the melting Arctic.

But no sooner had the meteorologists made their prediction than the weather bucked this trend, with a shift in the Atlantic's jet stream air circulation system giving rise to high-pressure weather fronts and a long period of settled sunny weather.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#38101
Aug 17, 2013
 
Some clowns whine again because they don't understand how science progresses. It's their own fault.

hehehehee
Mothra

Phoenix, AZ

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#38102
Aug 17, 2013
 

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Patriot AKA Bozo wrote:
<quoted text>
That is the way science works. The theory has been established that CO2 introduced into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels is causing the planet to warm. The only way to derail the theory is to prove that something else is causing the current unexpected warming, not CO2. So far all you have said is that it is not warming as much as the models say it should for the short term.
Gee... what if the planet isn't warming?

What if the 300ppm tipping point is passed? Oh... I mean 350. No, wait now it's 400, or maybe 450.

So hard to keep track of those moving goalposts.
gcaveman1

Louin, MS

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#38103
Aug 17, 2013
 

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No Warming wrote:
This is ignorance :

And here is the record since 2004.
Year
HadCRUT4
NOAA NCDC
NASA GISS
WMO Average
2012 0.44±0.10 0.45 0.44 0.45
2011 0.40±0.09 0.41 0.44 0.42
2010 0.54±0.09 0.53 0.56 0.54
2009 0.49±0.09 0.47 0.5 0.48
2008 0.38±0.09 0.38 0.37 0.38
2007 0.48±0.09 0.46 0.52 0.49
2006 0.49±0.09 0.47 0.48 0.48
2005 0.53±0.09 0.52 0.55 0.54
2004 0.44±0.09 0.45 0.41 0.43
Where is .3C warming.
Are your figures correct? Are these C or F?

You do realize that 0.44 is more than 0.3? And that the average of the first column is 0.465?
gcaveman1

Louin, MS

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#38104
Aug 17, 2013
 

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kristy wrote:
<quoted text>
You said you were going to blow me out of the water and show me how wrong I am. Instead you post some jibberish. In order to blow me out of the water, you have to at least show where my information is wrong about the funding of the Adaptation Fund, wealth distribution, World Bank, IMF, poverty in Africa, governments funding climate change science.
But I know you are busy worrying about all the scientists who are deniers and the complex web of denialism. You know all of them are paid by big oil to deny. There is no other reason for them to deny. They hate science. They still think the Earth is flat.
You've already blown yourself out of the water.

Anyone who goes for the Illuminati conspiracy is easily recognizable as gullible and incapable of critical thinking. Debating a nutcase on anything is futile.

Like communism, you can make it look real good on paper, but leaving out free will and human nature makes all the connections collapse.
SpaceBlues

Houston, TX

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#38105
Aug 17, 2013
 

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Mothra wrote:
<quoted text>
Gee... what if the planet isn't warming?
What if the 300ppm tipping point is passed? Oh... I mean 350. No, wait now it's 400, or maybe 450.
So hard to keep track of those moving goalposts.
You shout into the wind. Are you qualified to whine about climate science?

NO. About the last election? Perhaps.

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