Poll suggests Olivia Chow could beat Ford

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WHO BEAT TRICKY JANE

Hawkesbury, Canada

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#1
Nov 20, 2012
 
Poll suggests Olivia Chow could beat Ford and Vaughan in three-way race
Published on Tuesday November 20, 2012 Share on twitterShare on facebook

David Rider
Urban Affairs Bureau Chief

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NDP MP Olivia Chow would narrowly defeat Mayor Rob Ford and leave Councillor Adam Vaughan in the dust if such a hypothetical three-way mayoral matchup were held now, according to a new poll.

The Forum Research survey of 848 Torontonians, taken Friday and Saturday, suggests the public is increasingly behind the undeclared Chow as Ford’s primary rival, said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff.

“Olivia Chow is gaining momentum from the last poll (in June), when the idea of her running for mayor was a bit out of the blue,” Bozinoff said.

“She obviously does well in the old city of Toronto, but she also does well in the suburbs. It also shows that, even with another credible centre-left candidate in the race splitting that vote, Chow can win.”

Asked which of the three they would vote for “if the mayoral election were being held tomorrow,” 40 per cent picked Chow, 35 per cent picked Ford, 13 per cent chose Vaughan and 12 per cent did not know.

The margin of error is plus or minus 4 per cent 19 times out of 20. Ford and Chow are close to a statistical tie, Bozinoff said, but her numbers are rising while his are “flat.”

In the late June Forum poll, Chow drew 36 per cent support, compared with 34 per cent cent for Ford, 21 per cent for Vaughan and 9 per cent undecided.

The new poll has Chow only five points behind Ford in his home turf of Etobicoke and one point back in Scarborough.(The margin of error is significantly higher for specific areas of the city because the sample size is smaller.)

Only in North York did respondents overwhelmingly back the mayor.

Ford is halfway through a four-year mandate. However, his lost grip on city council and questions over his personal and professional conduct are fuelling debate over who could unseat him.

Also, a pending court ruling an alleged conflict of interest situation has the potential to eject Ford from office, triggering either a mayoral byelection or council appointment of a caretaker mayor. There is a possibility the judge could ban Ford from seeking re-election for up to seven years.

The poll came after Chow, the NDP’s transportation critic, made announcements in Toronto, including a call at the crumbling Gardiner Expressway for increased federal infrastructure funding.

She told reporters she is focused on federal duties but is “hearing from more and more people asking me to run (for mayor), and I’m listening to them.”

Chow declined Monday to comment on the new poll, saying she will “reserve my comments on transit and infrastructure issues.”

Vaughan, who is weighing his options for 2014, said the poll shows “Ford is beatable by an array of people, and that 2010 was a rogue election.

“The mayor’s race is still two years away, and it’ll move from a popularity contest into what direction people want the city to go.”

On Sunday, the mayor told the radio show he co-hosts that he needs “at least another four to six years” to complete his mission of shrinking the size and cost of municipal government.

Councillor Shelley Carroll, the former budget chief, is also leaning toward a mayoral run. Radio host John Tory has not closed the door on 2014, while TTC chair Karen Stintz has said she would not run against Ford.
VOTE FOR HER IS A JOKE

Hawkesbury, Canada

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#2
Nov 20, 2012
 
They mostly involve questions over spending expenses as an MP and living in subsidized housing when she and late husband Jack Layton had a combined annual income of over $120,000.

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