Philip Bruce Raful: Local real estate - myth vs. reality

[TBone]

Lies and statistics wrote:

<quoted text>
I claimed prices would not bounce back and gave a set of economically supportable reasons for my claim. You, on the other hand, just blustered without any support for your position. Odd to see someone that apparently doesn't read very well and can't construct a logical argument call anyone else a loser... maybe you are a trust fund baby and never had to learn nothin' you didn't want to 'cause mommy and daddy gave you whatever you wanted.

Actually, you spouted generalities about past history, you didn't provide any real supportable evidence, economics based or otherwise. That's what is called dogma - it'll be hard, but look it up. Given your reasoning, posting and resposnes, you will NEVER be able to understand the view I hold of your lack of credible basis for your opinion which is based on: dogma, anecdotal and confirmatory bias and no statistical basis.

We shall see. Different reasons in the past, but prices always bounce back in the BEST of Marin because they aren't making any more of the "best" of Marin: none exist. Namaste "dude". We shall see.

[Lies and statistics]

Hey ...boner...

Here's a few more people that don't believe that prices will be "bouncing back" very soon...

By Dan Levy
July 7 (Bloomberg)-- Home prices may fall in more than half of the largest U.S. cities through the first quarter of 2011 as unemployment and foreclosures rise, mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. said.

Thirty of the 50 biggest metropolitan areas have at least a 75 percent chance of lower prices through March 31, 2011, Walnut Creek, California-based PMI said in a report today. The decline is likely to spread to “all regions of the nation” from California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, the states most affected by the housing slump, PMI said.

“The housing market has been hit by a demand shock of high unemployment and a supply shock of distressed foreclosure sales,” LaVaughn Henry, senior economist at PMI, the fourth- largest U.S. mortgage insurer, said in an interview.
Unemployment rose to 9.5 percent in June, bringing the total number of jobs lost to 6.5 million since December 2007, the Labor Department said July 2. Foreclosure filings may hit a record 1.8 million in the first half of the year as more jobless homeowners default on their loans, real estate data service RealtyTrac Inc. said last month.

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 18.1 percent in April from a year earlier, following an 18.7 decrease in March, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Prices are forecast to fall 41.7 percent from their peak, Deutsche Bank AG analysts led by Karen Weaver wrote in a June 15 report.
Florida Drops Predicted

“Affordability is no longer the driving issue in the housing market, and we believe prices still have a ways to fall in many areas before home prices reach their trough,” the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.

--I cut out a bunch of city data here... you can see it all if you want to follow the link to the article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news...

>>>>>>>Th e probability of lower prices is 66 percent in the San Francisco area;

The insurer compiles its “market risk” index from income, interest-rate, home-price and affordability data going back to the early 1980s.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Levy in San Francisco at [e-mail]
Last Updated: July 7, 2009 12:45 EDT

[TBone]

Lies and statistics wrote:

Hey ...boner...
Here's a few more people that don't believe that prices will be "bouncing back" very soon...
By Dan Levy
July 7 (Bloomberg)-- Home prices may fall in more than half of the largest U.S. cities through the first quarter of 2011 as unemployment and foreclosures rise, mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. said.
Thirty of the 50 biggest metropolitan areas have at least a 75 percent chance of lower prices through March 31, 2011, Walnut Creek, California-based PMI said in a report today. The decline is likely to spread to “all regions of the nation” from California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, the states most affected by the housing slump, PMI said.
“The housing market has been hit by a demand shock of high unemployment and a supply shock of distressed foreclosure sales,” LaVaughn Henry, senior economist at PMI, the fourth- largest U.S. mortgage insurer, said in an interview.
Unemployment rose to 9.5 percent in June, bringing the total number of jobs lost to 6.5 million since December 2007, the Labor Department said July 2. Foreclosure filings may hit a record 1.8 million in the first half of the year as more jobless homeowners default on their loans, real estate data service RealtyTrac Inc. said last month.
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 18.1 percent in April from a year earlier, following an 18.7 decrease in March, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Prices are forecast to fall 41.7 percent from their peak, Deutsche Bank AG analysts led by Karen Weaver wrote in a June 15 report.
Florida Drops Predicted
“Affordability is no longer the driving issue in the housing market, and we believe prices still have a ways to fall in many areas before home prices reach their trough,” the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
--I cut out a bunch of city data here... you can see it all if you want to follow the link to the article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news...
>>>>>>>Th e probability of lower prices is 66 percent in the San Francisco area;
The insurer compiles its “market risk” index from income, interest-rate, home-price and affordability data going back to the early 1980s.
To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Levy in San Francisco at [e-mail]
Last Updated: July 7, 2009 12:45 EDT

All real estate is local. The so-called expert above ae the same ones that forecast increasing prices. They increase the trend and never call the change. Nothing about Marin above. Apparently, there is a 34% of flat to increasing in the SF area. Median prices will continue to reflect distressed sales and people who have to sell (divorce, job loss, job change). As I said, they are not making any more of the best of Marin. We shall see.

[stonetree neighbor]

come to stonetree!

[stonetree neighbor]

the home that was reduced $250,000 in july has now been reduced another $250,000!