Hawaii real estate market to fall further, expert says - Hawaii...

Full story: Honolulu Star-Bulletin

While many U.S. mainland real estate markets are finally showing signs of recovery, steep drops in the number of Hawaii sales during the second quarter indicate the market has further to fall, according to the head of a national consumer real estate information portal.

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“Live Love Laugh.. and Surf! :)”

Since: Aug 08

Kaimuki,Hilo,Ka'u, Kaupo

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#1
Aug 18, 2009
 

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"While many U.S. mainland real estate markets are finally showing signs of recovery, steep drops in the number of Hawaii sales during the second quarter indicate the market has further to fall, according to the head of a national consumer real estate information portal."

This is why those writers who do not have experience in real estate may not want to write about real estate.

For the Tampa Bay area appraisers are coming back with appraisals that are decreasing by 1 to 1.5% per month. However inventory is shrinking which is a good sign.

Hawai'i is similar but as usual some writers feel a lame need to sensationalize data in order to sell ad space. No wonder subscriptions are plummeting.
Anita

Wailuku, HI

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#2
Aug 18, 2009
 

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what do these mainland experts know about the Hawaii market? we don't play by the same rules here.
sickman fraud

Kailua Kona, HI

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#3
Aug 18, 2009
 

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I like the optimism of Hawaii's realtors and economists, but the adage "Hawaii lags behind the mainland by 6-12 months" may still hold true or not.
ProAnalyst

Aurora, CO

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#4
Aug 18, 2009
 

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Sell, sell, sell NOW! Prices are going to come down much more if one carefully looks at statistics.(demographics, fewer great salaries, baby boomers saving more and buying smaller and cheaper homes than before or just renting for a while, there are many foreclosures and bankruptcies, also more job loss ahead) The ability for today's buyer to qualify for larger loans has shrunken dramatically. Grandma an grandpa already helped most kids with their down payment over the least decade. Sure, not what you want to hear, but you have been warned. More decline on the way! Listen to any real estate sales person and it's ALWAYS a good time to buy. Sure, it is! How many of you who lost their homes, or are upside down on their home loans, heard that before? Don't listen to most realtors. Most (not all) of them only care about themselves, their fat commissions, but not necessarily about the seller, or buyer. Keep that in mind and just wait a while longer. Hawaii always lags about six months to a year in trends after the mainland.

Since: Oct 08

Hauula, HI

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#5
Aug 18, 2009
 
Maybe they should get their statistics right Hau'ula is on east Oahu, not on the Big Island... I grew up in Hau'ula, that's our zipcode.
Grinchie

United States

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#6
Aug 18, 2009
 

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The fundamentals in Hawaii have been out of whack since 2003 when the bubble started to inflate with a vengeance. Buy 2005, specualtors were building 8 houses simultaneously, hoping to cash in on the bubble, and now, most of them sit empty, rotting in the tropical weather.

Since they have never been sold once, there is a huge unseen glut of "newer", yet slightly unfinished homes just hanging out in limbo or foreclosure.

That's doesn't take into account all the incredibly overpriced vacant land that owners are stuck with now. If they sell it, they will take a loss, so they are stuck, and hope some sucker comes along and believes that the overinflated Country Appraisal and Property Values actually reflect reality.

They don't, and people will need to go back to prices that were the norm prior to 2003 in order to get interest.

At the very least, 2003, but maybe lower, because this bust is a Bubble that has never occurred in the History of the United States since the Great Depression.
Dakar

Mililani, HI

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#7
Aug 18, 2009
 

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The independent analyst says things prices are headed down and the one that works for the realtor association disagrees. Who do you think is being more honest and objective?
Patti

Honaunau, HI

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#8
Aug 18, 2009
 

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ProAnalyst, I couldn't agree with you more re realtors. They have had as much to do with the mortgage fallouts as have the banks and homeowners. They led many of the unqualified, ignorant buyers to these banks. Their greed and self-righteousness turn me off. I do not trust realtors.

On another note, overall, the condition of single family homes on the market today does not reflect the high prices at which sellers/realtors are listing these places. IMO many of these are still ~$50k too high.
LolaBerry

Honolulu, HI

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#9
Aug 18, 2009
 

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I love how mainland "experts" always think they know so much about Hawaii. I wonder how many of them have even been here to see what it's like. It's not okay to operate in a bubble and sit at a desk all day number crunching and publish a "forecast" about a unique state that's thousands of miles away. And it's nice that he wrote the article on his own without consulting local real estate players and economists about what's going on in their own state.
Stop the Madness

Honolulu, HI

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#10
Aug 18, 2009
 

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Housing prices are going to continue to get crushed in Hawaii for another year or so. Lenders are still shy about loaning, and if people can't borrow to buy second or third homes, then the artificially inflated Hawaii market will continue to drop. Hawaii real estate prices are not supported by people from Hawaii, so until foreign money can flow freely back in, the market will tumble. And that is actually probably a good thing for the people of Hawaii.
Leeward Lolo

Chicago, IL

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#11
Aug 18, 2009
 

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Why sit around and wait for alleged experts. Be aware of the market, spend time checking listings and go to open houses.

After a while a pattern will develop. You will become knowledgeable about certain places and can follow their rise or fall and accordingly act when the price is right.

Notice that in a given time period foreclosures rise and fall.
Notice that in a given time period prices rise and fall.
All depends who you listen to. Trust no one but yourself.
BobS

Lihue, HI

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#12
Aug 18, 2009
 

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While Frame may not be kamaaina, his main product, cyberhomes.com is a native born son, originally developed in Hawaii.
RationalAdjDev

Lahaina, HI

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#13
Aug 18, 2009
 

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"Harvey Shapiro, research economist for the Honolulu Board of Realtors"

Thank you for pointing out that Shapiro is a Shill. Being a professional liar somehow seems better than being a complete moron and asswipe.

His 'upswing off the bottom' is nothing more than the usual seasonal variation that we see every year, year after year.

Do your own research people! There is solid info all over the web for those who can think for themselves.

My research tells me that the market has only one way to go: down.

realoahu.blogspot.com

RatAdjDev
Malama Hawaii

Aiea, HI

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#14
Aug 18, 2009
 

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Dakar wrote:
The independent analyst says things prices are headed down and the one that works for the realtor association disagrees. Who do you think is being more honest and objective?
Exactly! I don't know why they keep asking for Mr. Shapiro's opinion as it is always tainted with his personal biases. July set a record for foreclosures, state employees are looking at massive budget cuts and interest rates are creeping upward. Adding up these factors spells a declining or at least a plateauing of real estate prices.
Guru

Costa Mesa, CA

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#16
Aug 18, 2009
 

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-Lana- wrote:
"While many U.S. mainland real estate markets are finally showing signs of recovery, steep drops in the number of Hawaii sales during the second quarter indicate the market has further to fall, according to the head of a national consumer real estate information portal."
This is why those writers who do not have experience in real estate may not want to write about real estate.
For the Tampa Bay area appraisers are coming back with appraisals that are decreasing by 1 to 1.5% per month. However inventory is shrinking which is a good sign.
Hawai'i is similar but as usual some writers feel a lame need to sensationalize data in order to sell ad space. No wonder subscriptions are plummeting.
Fact is Florida is losing population...they lost 58,000 people since last year. Hurricane insurance is ripping most people apart there now...it went up, if you can get it at all, by many multiples. Add to that the glut of 100,000 condos sitting vacant, even entire brand new buildings empty, and you get the picture. Hawaii is far from Florida when it comes to it's troubles.
Guru

Costa Mesa, CA

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#17
Aug 18, 2009
 
ProAnalyst wrote:
Sell, sell, sell NOW! Prices are going to come down much more if one carefully looks at statistics.(demographics, fewer great salaries, baby boomers saving more and buying smaller and cheaper homes than before or just renting for a while, there are many foreclosures and bankruptcies, also more job loss ahead) The ability for today's buyer to qualify for larger loans has shrunken dramatically. Grandma an grandpa already helped most kids with their down payment over the least decade. Sure, not what you want to hear, but you have been warned. More decline on the way! Listen to any real estate sales person and it's ALWAYS a good time to buy. Sure, it is! How many of you who lost their homes, or are upside down on their home loans, heard that before? Don't listen to most realtors. Most (not all) of them only care about themselves, their fat commissions, but not necessarily about the seller, or buyer. Keep that in mind and just wait a while longer. Hawaii always lags about six months to a year in trends after the mainland.
Snore...more like 1-2 years, "pro analyst". What's up? Trying to buy a house in Hawaii that is too expensive for ya? Need to get the prices down a little more??-lol
Guru

Costa Mesa, CA

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#18
Aug 18, 2009
 
LolaBerry wrote:
I love how mainland "experts" always think they know so much about Hawaii. I wonder how many of them have even been here to see what it's like. It's not okay to operate in a bubble and sit at a desk all day number crunching and publish a "forecast" about a unique state that's thousands of miles away. And it's nice that he wrote the article on his own without consulting local real estate players and economists about what's going on in their own state.
They are reporters. That means deadlines. A story needs to be written by Friday. Lets see...Hawaii! Yeah, that will be fun...dream a little, write something...now he is an "expert". Probabaly has never even been there. California(latimes) does that all the time to Arizona. It is all about jealousy, protectionism, and business. They do it several times a year, like clockwork.
Guru

Costa Mesa, CA

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#19
Aug 18, 2009
 
Stop the Madness wrote:
Housing prices are going to continue to get crushed in Hawaii for another year or so. Lenders are still shy about loaning, and if people can't borrow to buy second or third homes, then the artificially inflated Hawaii market will continue to drop. Hawaii real estate prices are not supported by people from Hawaii, so until foreign money can flow freely back in, the market will tumble. And that is actually probably a good thing for the people of Hawaii.
Good points. You are right.
RationalAdjDev

Lahaina, HI

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#20
Aug 18, 2009
 
-Lana- wrote:
Hawai'i is similar but as usual some writers feel a lame need to sensationalize data in order to sell ad space. No wonder subscriptions are plummeting.
No need to sensationalize the numbers here Lana. Let the numbers speak for themselves; eg. Maui condos are having a 40% off sale this year. Now that is sensational!
Ahh-So-Deska

Honolulu, HI

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#21
Aug 18, 2009
 

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Lazy reporting... Talking to a reporter is like talking to a pusher about the price of pot - it's always going to be a good deal, because 'man, it makes you feel soooooo good.'

Must be the same for this reporter: call a realtor, listen and repeat verbatum. Submit, sit back and feel sooooo good.

Such bs.

The paper's editor is also AWOL.

HEY, read what you write.

It's the SAME as the one last week, the week before, etc.

SAY SOMETHING NEW. TALK TO SOMEONE DIFFERENT. GET AN ORIGINAL THOUGHT.

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