Failed US & AA outcome. How will the Airline puzzle be rearranged?
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#1 Aug 14, 2013
My conclusion is our government wants US bigger and AA bigger but so there might be 5 larger stronger airlines but they do not want US and AA bigger cause that would lock up the US market with
AA DL UA WN
being able to dominate all the other smaller carriers to the extent of being able to putting
AS B6 HA and F9 out of business in due course and an shear size in a matter of time.
#2 Aug 15, 2013
US + HA
AA + B6
?? AS doesn't really want Frontier in the direction it is going,
?? AS absolutely does not want cash burning Virgin America
?? AS won't do to customers what Spirit does
?? AS and Allegiant are just not of the same business model but they are making money maybe AS could refine their product
?? AS and Sun Country, doesn't really do much for AS unless they want to get into charter and go head to with DL out of MSP.
#3 Aug 15, 2013
NONE OF THE ABOVE! The merger will be approved after a certain amount of slot trading or selling in order to introduce some price competition into the most monopolistic markets. In this case, expect to see US-AA give up slots in DCA to someone like Southwest or Frontier or Spirit. The CO-UA merger was not approved until they gave up slots at EWR (the most dominated hub in the system) to Southwest.
#4 Aug 16, 2013
I agree with the Capt. There will be concessions made and it will go through eventually but only after lawyers have made millions more.
The LCCs will be sitting there waiting for the handouts the majors are forced to give up once again. Will be interesting to see how many DCA slots they're forced to give up.
Then again, it might depend on how strong of a case the 6 states have in the lawsuit. I haven't seen what their beef is yet.
#5 Aug 16, 2013
I was never in favor of the merger due to the fear of Parker turning the new AA into a larger US. US has not been committed to the customer as was AA. When US for a while charged for water and still charges a fee for frequent flyers to redeem miles on its web site, that shows to me what disdain US has for its customers. The new AA would have too many Airways people in the new management team and that's what makes me think it would just be another iteration of US.
US needs AA, not the other way around and before some say that US has been making money, it took 2 trips in #11 and paying the lowest wage scales in the industry among the majors.
All we can do is wait for the dust to settle which make take some time.
#6 Aug 16, 2013
Well I would guess a few analysts and bean counters having been mulling an
AS acquisition of US
AS acquisition of F9
in any case one must factor in if AA and DL and if they would have any adverse feelings regarding the codeshare AS does with both of them.
Less risky route would be F9.
More risky route would be US,
but also far more potentially profitable. If anyone has read any history of Alaska, well one would easily know which route they would be inclined to go! Also if anyone has read any history of AS one would know they really prefer to grow without the added complications of mergers or acquisitions.
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