Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25...

Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if...

There are 17 comments on the Daily Mail story from Jan 28, 2012, titled Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if.... In it, Daily Mail reports that:

The supposed 'consensus' on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

Join the discussion below, or Read more at Daily Mail.

Fun Facts

Owens Cross Roads, AL

#1 Jan 28, 2012

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#2 Jan 29, 2012
We can only hope Peter Stott is right that GHGs dominate and that Henrik Svensmark is wrong.
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There's appears to be something wrong with this graph, it shows 2003 warmer than 2005:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/01/28/art...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#3 Jan 29, 2012
More nonsense from the daily mail.

The period 97-11 has a super El Nino at the beginning and two La Nina periods at the end (El Ninos are when the ocean warms the air and La Ninas when the oceans cool the air).

The next strong El Nino period will see the trend shift positive- and probably a new record: La Ninas simply mean the oceans are storing heat which they'll release later.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/NASA-scientis...

Even if there is no strong El Nino, warming continues and by 2015, even a weak El Nino will set a new record.

The HadCrut data set didn't represent the Arctic well, and it's the Arctic where most recent warming has occurred.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/New_temperatu...

The new HadCrut data set has more stations in the Arctic, and shows 2005 and 2010 as warmer than 1998- as the other data sets do already.

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2012/01/not...

Even if the sun were to have remained flat, the reduced energy from the sun would have been compensated by 7 years of additional CO2 from fossil fuel emissions.

But as fun fart's data show, the sun's output is picking up.

In summary, deniers are claiming warming has stopped.

AGW science says warming continues, and expect new record temperatures by mid decade, if not sooner.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#4 Jan 29, 2012
"We played with life and lost."
Jim

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#5 Jan 31, 2012
If the Mail's weather forecasts are anything to go by, their climate predictions will be worthless too.

(The Mail's weather forecast predicted a harsh winter- it's been one of the mildest ever. Their weather forecasts later transpired to have been made up by somebody with no experience or qualification in weather forecasting, and posted under pictures of models.)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgem...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/...
YouHelpFixIt

Nottingham, MD

#6 Jan 31, 2012
NASA did not get the prediction right for solar cycle 24. Why would anyone think that they get cycle 25 correct?
Northie

Spokane, WA

#7 Jan 31, 2012
More from Forbes, this time taking the Daily Mail to task just as it did the Wall Street Journal:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevezwick/2012/0...
kal

Kennewick, WA

#8 Jan 31, 2012
Fair Game wrote:
If the Mail's weather forecasts are anything to go by, their climate predictions will be worthless too.
(The Mail's weather forecast predicted a harsh winter- it's been one of the mildest ever. Their weather forecasts later transpired to have been made up by somebody with no experience or qualification in weather forecasting, and posted under pictures of models.)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgem...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/...
oh my 'game', for the mildest winter ever, it is sure killing a lot of people.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/30/sever...

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#9 Feb 1, 2012
FuGyou wrote:
If the Mail's weather forecasts are anything to go by, their climate predictions will be worthless too.
(The Mail's weather forecast predicted a harsh winter- it's been one of the mildest ever.
That's so eerily similar to Met Office predictions, it's almost identical, apart from the cost.
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Met Office bonuses rise by third after icy winter of discontent
Bonuses at the Met Office soared by almost a third last year, despite claims its forecasters failed to predict one of the coldest years on record.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-an...
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Try not to be so biased in future.

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#10 Feb 1, 2012
Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>That's so eerily similar to Met Office predictions, it's almost identical, apart from the cost.
-
Met Office bonuses rise by third after icy winter of discontent
Bonuses at the Met Office soared by almost a third last year, despite claims its forecasters failed to predict one of the coldest years on record.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-an...
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Try not to be so biased in future.
The Met Office warned the government of a cold winter coming in October 2010.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/823...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#11 Feb 1, 2012
"The payments were made for forecasting in the year when the Met Office did not predict the Big Freeze over the winter of 2010."

Telegraph, 2012.

"In October the forecaster privately warned the Government - with whom it has a contract - that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter."

Telegraph, 2011.

The Telegraph, like earthling, has a short and selective memory.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#12 Feb 1, 2012
14 Jan 2010
Met Office to review forecasts after failing to warn public of fresh snow
The Met Office has admitted that it failed to warn the public of the heavy snow that brought swaths of Britain to a standstill on Wednesday.
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Forecasters conceded that they did not spot the widespread snow storms that caused transport disruption and a surge of weather-related accidents until it was too late.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/698...
"Forecasters conceded"
Concede
Verb:
1. Admit that something is true or valid after first denying or resisting it.
2. Admit (defeat) in a contest: "he conceded defeat".

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#13 Feb 1, 2012
Met Office 'barbecue summer' forecast "seriously misleading"
After Met office ‘sizzling summer’ forecast the UK was ‘under water’- July, 2007.
Met Office long range forecast skill remains negative
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.a...

Met Office cools summer forecast
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The real problem for the Met Office is that this is the third summer in a row where its forecast has failed. In 2007, the Met Office chirped: "The summer is yet again likely to be warmer than normal. There are no indications of a particularly wet summer."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8173533.stm

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#14 Feb 1, 2012
FuGyou wrote:
The Met Office warned the government of a cold winter coming in October 2010.
Really?
The Met Office winter forecast lie is finally nailed
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A look at the information makes clear there is nowhere left for the Met Office to hide. The Met Office has been caught ‘cold’ lying about its winter forecast in a disgraceful attempt to salvage its reputation. Its claim that it forecast the cold start to the winter lays in tatters thanks to an exchange of emails between the department and the Cabinet Office.

As a result the Met Office is completely discredited. Also utterly discredited is the BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin, who on the Met Office’s behalf used a column in the Radio Times (later carried in the Telegraph and the Daily Mail) to state that:
In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter.

It kept the prediction secret, however, after facing severe criticism over the accuracy of its long-term forecasts.
(My emphasis in bold italic above and below) Harrabin went on to say in his piece that:
Why didn’t the Met Office tell us that Greenland was about to swap weather with Godalming? The truth is it [The Met Office] did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October. But we weren’t let in on the secret.“The reason? The Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts because of the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009 – the summer that campers floated around in their tents.
The email exchange in the screenshot below proves this is a lie. The Cabinet Office civil servant (bottom message) confirms the weather outlook supplied by the Met Office earlier that day is what the government will use in its ‘Forward Look’. The Met Office employee (top message) agrees with it.
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/01/2...

Since: Apr 08

"the green troll"

#15 Feb 1, 2012
Earthling-1 wrote:
<quoted text>Really?
The Met Office winter forecast lie is finally nailed
From the emails:

"Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season.

Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season."

Sounds like they got it right to me.

Try to stay away from conspiracy web sites, or at least be a little sceptical of their nonsense if you do read them.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#16 Feb 1, 2012
FuGyou wrote:
Sounds like they got it right to me.
Of course it does, you'e the defender of the faith.

“Happy, warm and comfortable”

Since: Oct 10

Mountain retreat, SE Spain

#17 Feb 1, 2012
You're

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