An Obama Win or Why T____H____X's ele...

An Obama Win or Why T____H____X's election call is off base...

Posted in the African-American Forum

Level 2

Since: Oct 12

Lakewood, CA

#1 Oct 19, 2012
Topix - October 19, 2012

This thread regards T____H____X's off-base election call:

It explains why his call is wrong, or at least should be taken with a grain of salt. T____H____X says current trends and polling data show Romney winning by a landslide, but one does not make a trend. His cherry-picking shows clear bias toward Romney dispite his dismissal of that bias in his post. I will now address each of his presented "trends".

[Current Gallup]

Gallup Performs Poorly When Out of Consensus, and its poll with Obama/Romney at 45/51 conflicts with other recent polls such as Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP, CT/Hartford, and the Real Clear Politics averages, all of which have the candidates at a statistical tie.
See Section: Gallup Performs Poorly When Out of Consensus
This is a snapshot of nationwide polling on 10/19/12. Notice how wild the disagreement is between Gallup and every other poll.

[Romney ahead on RCP electoral map…]

Real Clear Politic's electoral map is good evidence, but it concludes nothing. Its latest map shows Romney up 5 electoral points, 206 to 201. Yet take Iowa for example, which RCP declares a tossup. Every recent state poll save PPP today shows Obama ahead. One poll does not make a trend.

PPP -+1 Romney
NBC/WSJ -+8 Obama
WAA -+3 Obama

You will find similar results with Pennsylvania (and I think Michigan). In addition, as of 10/19/12, Huffington Post and New York Times both show electoral maps with Obama ahead (and by larger margins): (237-191 Obama) (277-206 Obama)

[Romney higher “favorable” than “Obama”…]

I take this as a feath in Romney's cap no matter how one puts it. Pew, Gallup, and DailyKos all show Romney ahead by 1 to 3 points despite Romney once having a likability half of Obama's. Romney climbed out of a pit. Not decisive, but definitely competitive.

[Romney leads by 4 in PA…]

Speaking of Pennsylvania, "It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State." Once again, one does not make a trend. Also, the poll was taken before the second debate in New York and claims the jump is evidence that Romney's "strong debate performances are having a lasting impact." But Obama won the second debate by concensus, so one would expect a similar bounce for the president, no?
The first poll to show Romney leading in Pennsylvania

[Romney leads in VA…]

This is, like Romney's favorability, another strong showing, but once again it is not decisive.

Romney must still contend with the Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire trio, all of which have good reason to side with the president over the governor. State by state counts still show Romney struggling to overcome a deficit, and Barack Obama's second debate performance will likely stall or turn Romney's advances over the last couple of weeks.
White November

United States

#2 Oct 19, 2012
I bet obama gives the best bj
THX B Whippin

Puyallup, WA

#4 Oct 19, 2012
We shall see.

I'm standing by my prediction.

"Obama" has been a miserable failure. The productive 53% know that.

Level 2

Since: Oct 12

Long Beach, CA

#5 Nov 7, 2012

San Francisco, CA

#6 Nov 7, 2012
KingAceSuited wrote:
Well played!!

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